The plastics market is much short-lived in the last quarter of 2017

Plastic supply

The profit of the polyolefin industry is considerable. At present, the average profit of PE and PP produced by petrochemical enterprises is about 2,800 yuan / ton and 2,000 yuan / ton, respectively, thus stimulating the new production capacity to accelerate. Although the lower oil price reduces the cost of oil olefins and weakens the cost advantage of coal chemical industry, the coal olefins project remains profitable in recent years and adapts to China's energy structure. It will remain the main force for polyolefin capacity expansion in the near future. Datang Duolun has produced 107,000 tons of polypropylene, and Zhongtian Hechuang Erdos 120,000 tons of polyethylene equipment has been successfully tested. The Shenhua coal-to-liquids project has been put into production in the fourth quarter.

After the centralized maintenance in the second quarter, in addition to the occasional shutdown, the polyolefin plant was normally maintained to maintain high-load operation. At present, the inspection rate of the PE device is 4.3%, and the inspection rate of the PP device is 7.2%. Petrochemical inventories were repeated at a relatively low level of 600,000 tons, and the destocking process was blocked. Due to the high demand for futures to stimulate the demand for hedging, the petrochemical inventories fell sharply in the early period, but it was largely converted from explicit to implicit and not effectively digested.

LLDPE and PP internal and external disk hangs, the spread has expanded to 726 yuan / ton and 366 yuan / ton, respectively, the import arbitrage window opened, Iran's low-cost supply flooded. US oil companies have launched new petrochemical projects to make full use of the cheap by-products generated during the crude oil refining process. This will make the United States a major exporter of plastic products and have an impact on Chinese exports.

Terminal demand

The overall performance of the demand is general, the manufacturers are not willing to pursue the purchase, and the firm transaction is not effective. In July, the output of China's plastic products was 6.895 million tons, an increase of 2% year-on-year; in the first seven months of this year, a total of 45.3 million tons of plastic products were produced, an increase of 3.7%. As a downstream product related to plastics, automobile consumption has obvious seasonal patterns. It generally peaks in March every year, and enters the traditional off-season in the middle of the year. Jinjiuyin 10 has improved and entered the peak season at the end of the year. Manufacturers are mostly sold, production and sales are highly consistent, so the demand for plastics is high and low in both sides. The household appliance industry has formed a trend of plastic-based steel. For ordinary refrigerator products, plastic materials account for nearly 70% of the total, and the total weight is about 40%. Refrigerator sales are in the peak season when the weather is hot, and there is some support for plastics.

From September to October, the traditional market for agricultural film is coming soon. Normally, there will be a pattern of supply and demand. However, due to pollution caused by exhaust emissions during the production process, the growth rate of agricultural film construction is limited by environmental protection policies. The operating rate of large-scale agricultural film factories is 60%-80%, and the operating rate of medium-sized agricultural film factories is 30%-50%. Many small enterprises face rectification and even shut down. Environmental inspectors have a certain impact on the enthusiasm of downstream stocking, and the demand for the film season is not as expected.

Summary suggestion

Petrochemical companies are selling at a very high price, and the polyolefin industry is profitable, stimulating new capacity. The centralized maintenance of the device is completed and the high load operation is maintained. Petrochemical stocks were low and the destocking process was blocked. The disk will rise to the outer disk and will face pressure from imported sources in the later period. The overall performance of downstream demand is general, and the market for agricultural film is about to open. Environmental protection inspectors continued to exert their strength, and plastic products enterprises were restricted in operation, and the enthusiasm for stocking was not high. However, in the long run, environmental protection policies and supply-side reforms have a significant impact on plastic varieties.

Technically, both LLDPE and PP have completed the W-shaped bottom reversal pattern, and continue to rise after returning to the neckline. The overall variety of plastics maintained a strong view, but considering the long-term favorable overdraft and the suppression of the previous high, the risk of entry risk is relatively low. Concerned about the long and short battles around the integer mark, more than one can be held cautiously.

In terms of strategy, in the short-term, downstream enterprises are more affected by environmental protection inspectors, and the disk rises outside the plate to stimulate imports. The operating rate of polyolefins remains high, and the technical level has reached the high resistance level in the previous period. In the medium and long term, petrochemical enterprises have a strong willingness to price, and there is a certain peak season expectation at the demand side. The output and export of domestic plastic products have maintained steady growth, and the support in the medium and long term has been long.