The annual Central Economic Work Conference will be held soon. In accordance with established practice, the conference will summarize the achievements of economic work in the past year; respond to current changes in international and domestic economic conditions; formulate macroeconomic development plans; and deploy economic work next year.
The Central Economic Work Conference that ended on December 12 last year set the main tone for the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy this year. Looking ahead to next year, inflationary pressures have slowed and economic growth is facing more difficulties. These factors will have a major impact on the formulation of monetary policy next year.
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, predicts that the annual central economic work conference held in the first half of December will set the tone for the 2012 policy as "prudent monetary policy" and "proactive fiscal policy." A person in the cement industry pointed out that this move will herald infrastructure investment in 2012 that will not be as bad as it seems. There are still a large number of infrastructure projects that will be established and started construction next year. This is undoubtedly a big plus for the cement industry.
Specifically, since the last year, the 12 consecutive RRR increase has been anticipated in 2012. Even some economists believe that the time window for RRR cut is in December. As for the adjustment of the benchmark interest rate, there is a certain degree of uncertainty. The level of negative interest rates may take a long time.
Monetary policy has no tightening basis The implementation of the tightening control policy for the past half year has shown signs of partial relaxation in the fourth quarter.
In late October, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council said in an investigation in Tianjin that the macroeconomic policy will be "adjusted and fine-tuned in a timely manner." Subsequently, the central bank disclosed in its “The Third Quarter of 2011 Monetary Policy Implementation Report†that the central bank’s monetary policy will be pre-adjusted and fine-tuned at the appropriate time and in accordance with changes in the economic situation.
In fact, the fourth quarter monetary policy proposed "pre-tuning fine-tuning" also has a certain background.
"Since January 2010, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio of large-scale financial institutions for 12 consecutive times. The main purpose is to recover liquidity and cope with rising inflationary pressures," said Fu Bingtao, researcher of the Strategic Planning Department of the Agricultural Bank of China (601288). At present, inflation has seen a downward trend, and the economic base for the continued tightening of monetary policy no longer exists.
The CPI began to decline after reaching a peak of 6.5% in July, and the CPI in November will drop to about 4.3% year-on-year. It is worth noting that the signs of a slowdown in the growth of the real economy have become increasingly evident. In October, the industrial added value increased by 13.2% year-on-year, which was a drop of 1.9 percentage points from the highest value of 15.1% in the year. The HSBC PMI and the apparent consumption of crude steel in November indicated that the industrial growth rate will further decline.
The Central Economic Work Conference that ended on December 12 last year set the main tone for the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy this year. Looking ahead to next year, inflationary pressures have slowed and economic growth is facing more difficulties. These factors will have a major impact on the formulation of monetary policy next year.
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, predicts that the annual central economic work conference held in the first half of December will set the tone for the 2012 policy as "prudent monetary policy" and "proactive fiscal policy." A person in the cement industry pointed out that this move will herald infrastructure investment in 2012 that will not be as bad as it seems. There are still a large number of infrastructure projects that will be established and started construction next year. This is undoubtedly a big plus for the cement industry.
Specifically, since the last year, the 12 consecutive RRR increase has been anticipated in 2012. Even some economists believe that the time window for RRR cut is in December. As for the adjustment of the benchmark interest rate, there is a certain degree of uncertainty. The level of negative interest rates may take a long time.
Monetary policy has no tightening basis The implementation of the tightening control policy for the past half year has shown signs of partial relaxation in the fourth quarter.
In late October, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council said in an investigation in Tianjin that the macroeconomic policy will be "adjusted and fine-tuned in a timely manner." Subsequently, the central bank disclosed in its “The Third Quarter of 2011 Monetary Policy Implementation Report†that the central bank’s monetary policy will be pre-adjusted and fine-tuned at the appropriate time and in accordance with changes in the economic situation.
In fact, the fourth quarter monetary policy proposed "pre-tuning fine-tuning" also has a certain background.
"Since January 2010, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio of large-scale financial institutions for 12 consecutive times. The main purpose is to recover liquidity and cope with rising inflationary pressures," said Fu Bingtao, researcher of the Strategic Planning Department of the Agricultural Bank of China (601288). At present, inflation has seen a downward trend, and the economic base for the continued tightening of monetary policy no longer exists.
The CPI began to decline after reaching a peak of 6.5% in July, and the CPI in November will drop to about 4.3% year-on-year. It is worth noting that the signs of a slowdown in the growth of the real economy have become increasingly evident. In October, the industrial added value increased by 13.2% year-on-year, which was a drop of 1.9 percentage points from the highest value of 15.1% in the year. The HSBC PMI and the apparent consumption of crude steel in November indicated that the industrial growth rate will further decline.
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