In the first quarter of this year, China’s housing prices soared by nearly 30%, and the third-tier cities rose more than one or two lines.

On April 14th, the first quarter of 2016, “Commodity Housing Transaction Structure Report” released by Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute showed that house prices in 30 typical cities in the first quarter rose by nearly 30%. The volume of transactions in the third-tier cities was eye-catching, with a year-on-year increase of over 50%, leading the first- and second-tier cities; the average price of second-tier cities was 10,000 yuan per square meter.
In the first quarter of this year, the transaction area of ​​commercial housing in 30 typical cities including Zhengzhou and Beishang Guangshen was 61.4 million square meters, a record high for the same period in the same period of the past seven years. The chain fell by 23.1%, mainly due to the influence of the Spring Festival, and a partial correction for the fourth quarter of 2015; a year-on-year increase of 33.7%, which has continued to grow positively for six quarters.
Xie Jinlong, a researcher at the Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, analyzed that considering the recovery of the national property market, apart from individual cities, real estate and financial policies are still relatively loose overall, and residents' enthusiasm for buying houses is still high. It is expected that the volume will still increase slightly in the second quarter. .
In the first quarter, the average transaction price of commercial buildings in 30 typical cities was 13,505 yuan per square meter, which continued to hit a record high. The chain increased by 8.1%, up 28.2% year-on-year, and the year-on-year increase was nearly 30%, a record high.
Xie Jinlong analyzed that the average price of the transaction has risen sharply. On the one hand, the volume growth of the transaction volume in recent quarters has driven the rise of the “product” price; on the other hand, the relatively high-priced first-tier cities and some second-tier cities The average transaction price increased faster than other second- and third-tier cities with lower prices, which caused the average price to “be”. Considering that the current trend will also move forward, it is expected that prices will rise slightly in the second quarter.

Related reading: third- and fourth-tier cities, housing prices, rising space, limited investment demand, difficult to stock
Since the beginning of the year, in the process of “destocking”, the state has issued a series of policies to stimulate real estate sales, which has driven the real estate market to gradually pick up. The Financial and Economics Edition focused on new signs and new problems of “destocking” and launched a series of reports “stable destocking”. The reporters went to various cities in different provinces to conduct on-the-spot investigations and made suggestions for “destocking”. Among them, on March 28th, "Stop the down payment, can you really land?" ", the analysis of the operation process of the down payment loan, direct related risks; April 11 "family into the city, the "room" door can be wider? "Reported that migrant workers in third- and fourth-tier cities have difficulty in buying houses with rigid demand groups, which has attracted the attention of all parties concerned.

Are the investment-type houses in third- and fourth-tier cities enthusiasm?
In recent years, housing prices have been relatively stable. Although the market has been picking up recently, the room for housing prices is still limited. Most of the buyers are mainly self-occupied, and the investment demand in the residential sector is less. Yin Qing is a middle school teacher in Zhuzhou City, Hunan Province. Zhuzhou has 3 sets of housing. In addition to the self-housing, a set is used for renting, a set of idle, intends to wait for the price to rise a little and then sell.
Yin Qing told reporters: "Now the house rental is very troublesome, all kinds of trivial things, the rent is not much, not enough. Today's house prices are similar to the level of 5 years ago, according to this increase, the house is not too big The investment value, the rent is not high, the investment yield is low, and the number of investors who rent a house is less and less."
Yin Qing once wanted to invest in a store, but then it was gone. “E-commerce is so developed, the demand for physical stores is reduced, shops are not rentable, or rents are not rented. For us, no matter how the policy changes, the new demand is not too big. The current status is People who have the ability to buy a house do not have the need to buy a house, and the ability is not enough.
In Zhuzhou, there are quite a few locals like Yin Qing. In recent years, the prices of third- and fourth-tier cities have stopped, which has eroded the investment enthusiasm of residents.
He Tao, the president of the construction bank Zhuzhou Branch, analyzed that the biggest driving force for the purchase of home buyers to invest in housing is the sharp rise in house prices, followed by the ratio of housing rental to sales. From January to February this year, the average transaction price of commercial housing in Zhuzhou City was 4,905 yuan / square meter, an increase of 7.86% compared with the beginning of the year, of which the average transaction price of commercial housing was 4,275 yuan / square meter, an increase of 2.88%, due to the current low housing prices in Zhuzhou City Since the privatization of housing in the mid-1990s, the average price of Zhuzhou housing has risen by less than 200 yuan per square meter per year. The rent-to-sale ratio of commercial housing in the city is about 1:330, which has led to the demand of home buyers in Zhuzhou City. And the improvement needs are mostly, and the willingness of buyers to invest in housing is not strong.
After many investigations, the reporter found that it is precisely because housing prices are relatively stable, ordinary buyers are not paying much attention to housing prices. The current economy is facing downward pressure, income growth is slow, investment return rate is not high, and there are many buyers on the market. It is just the need and the first-time improvement demand release. Most homebuyers buy houses for self-occupation, and there is less investment demand in the residential sector.
From the current hot-selling housing units, we can also see the decline in investment demand:
Yuan Jiang, marketing director of Zhuzhou Zhongfang Investment Co., Ltd. said that in general, large and medium-sized houses of 120-130 square meters are selling well, and most of this demand is improved. Starting from 2015, 90-144 square meters of the most popular units, sales increased by 21.5% year-on-year, large-scale sales of 144 square meters or more increased by 21.8%. “It shows that the bigger the house is, the smaller the sales of small-sized houses are used, and the investment demand is declining. From the perspective of the whole city, the proportion of investment-type houses is 5%-10%.”
Since the beginning of the year, although the real estate market in the third and fourth tier cities is hot, the housing prices have not changed significantly. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (17.880, -0.01, -0.06%) Zhang Qi, senior manager of the banking management department of Changsha Branch, said: "Since the second half of 2015, especially after the Spring Festival this year, market transactions have risen rapidly and continue to create new highs, but go Under the pressure of inventory, prices are unlikely to rebound sharply, and the upside is limited."
In contrast, investment purchases in second-tier cities are more attractive. In Hannan District of Wuhan City, the real estate project developed by the well-known housing enterprise Country Garden is mainly based on low-density garden houses, attracting many foreign investors to purchase.
“The house has been sold to the fourth phase, and the sales situation is not bad. Most of them are purchased by foreign investors, so the occupancy rate of the community is not high.” Sales staff of the sales office introduced that many foreigners buy houses for investment, two It is intended to support the elderly in the future. At the opening of the first phase of the previous years, the price of townhouses was less than 4,000 yuan per square meter, and the price of high-rise residential buildings was even lower. House prices have shown a moderate upward trend in these years, and investors who bought early will definitely earn a few years.
A staff member of Wuhan Evergrande Real Estate introduced that they have recently opened a new real estate. Among the buyers, there are local buyers who purchase second-home suites, as well as foreign-invested investors. “Wuhan real estate destocking pressure is not big, house prices are also stable and rising, the situation is still relatively optimistic.”

Can real estate “reform of the camp” bring live commercial real estate?
Some downstream enterprises may adjust the original plan to build office buildings and factories to purchase or lease commercial real estate, and enjoy the VAT deduction policy. Wang Hui runs a landscape design company in Shaoyang City, Hunan Province. Previously, the company had been renting office space. At the end of last year, after a little accumulation, the company purchased an office.
Speaking of plans to invest in the future, Wang Hui said: "The current house is enough. I don't plan to buy more real estate in the near future. The real estate market doesn't understand, and focusing on our main business is the right way. Now the business environment is not Well, the funds of many companies are already very tight, and there is still money to invest in real estate."
On May 1st, the country will comprehensively push the business tax to VAT pilot in the four major industries, such as real estate, how much impact on the real estate market?
"After the implementation of the camp reform, it will bring changes to the real estate industry, especially commercial real estate. Some downstream enterprises may adjust the original plans for building office buildings and factories to purchase or lease commercial real estate, thus enjoying the VAT deduction. Policy, reduce corporate tax costs.” Professor Hu Yijian, Dean of the Institute of Public Policy and Governance of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, said that the real estate industry has increased its operating rate and determined the 11% VAT rate, while the real estate industry’s own tax burden will only decrease. This means that in the case of the real estate industry's own tax burden costs, the downstream enterprises that sell the sales increase the value-added tax deduction, which is equivalent to more than 10% of the price reduction promotion, which will naturally promote the progress of real estate sales and destocking. Increase the buying and leasing needs of downstream companies.
Hu Yijian said that the tax system reform itself is neutral, but the change from business tax to value-added tax has objectively played a role in increasing the deduction chain and reducing the downstream tax burden. Under the current downward pressure on the economy, it can stimulate the willingness of enterprises to invest in real estate. . According to the relevant rules of the camp reform, the value-added tax deduction for the purchase of real estate can be deducted within two years, which means that many enterprises can not pay VAT within a few years after purchasing the office space. Increasing investment in this area has a positive effect on steady growth and stable investment.
According to a survey conducted by the Yantai National Taxation Department of Shandong Province, this policy has indeed increased the confidence of both commercial and commercial buyers and the market. It is located in the new city of Yantai in the south of Yantai, Shandong Province. Upon completion, it will become the largest and most comprehensive comprehensive commodity trading center in the entire Jiaodong area. Huang Wenjie, head of the Yande Holding Yantai Project, said: “The project plans to invest 8 billion yuan and the total construction area will reach 2.8 million square meters. The overall situation has been good since the operation of the project. A number of well-known enterprises have signed a check-in agreement, but the relative real estate market has a relative The downturn and the impact of e-commerce have brought us a lot of pressure."
Regarding the market prospects after the reform of the camp, Huang Wenjie is more optimistic: "The positive is mainly in two aspects. First, the land cost of the real estate project can be directly deducted from the sales. The Jianan cost can also be deducted from the input tax. The estimated tax burden is In addition, with the inclusion of real estate in the deduction range, it can be predicted that the enthusiasm for investing in commercial real estate will definitely increase, whether it is a manufacturing enterprise, a commercial enterprise or a financial insurance and other service industries."
For example, Hu Yijian said that, like this financial industry, which belongs to the scope of the reform of the camp, most banks and insurance companies currently adopt the mode of self-built or leased outlets. After the reform of the camp, the financial industry itself pays 6% of the value-added tax. The purchase of office space can enjoy 11% VAT deduction, many bank outlets may gradually consider investing in office space, the original rental housing will also enjoy tax deduction, thereby increasing the financial industry investment in real estate Enthusiasm to accelerate the process of destocking existing commercial real estate.
Zhang Yongjun, deputy director of China Everbright Bank Yantai Branch, said: “At present, our business outlets are mainly in the form of leasing. The proportion of commercial real estate held by the whole industry is also small. The main reason is that the cost of purchasing commercial real estate is too large. The policy of tax inclusion in the deduction range is very attractive to us and may even change the existing banking operation mode."

How to stimulate investment demand to go to stock?
The core of destocking is to develop the industry and absorb the population. Priority should be given to meeting rigid and improved demand, rationally adjusting the number of developers, and building a rational real estate market.
How to go to stock through investment demand?
“In third- and fourth-tier cities, it is not easy to rely on investment-type demand to go to stocks. At present, the pressure on stocks in third- and fourth-tier cities is large, mainly because of insufficient population inflows. Once the population is small, the demand for investment-type real estate will naturally be scarce. Stimulating investment demand and improving leasing demand to go to inventory, this road is difficult." Zhongyuan Real Estate Principal Analyst Zhang Dawei said.
The reporter learned through investigation that the majority of the permanent residents in the third- and fourth-tier cities are below 1 million, and the consumption base is weak. The level of commercial development is relatively backward. Coupled with economic growth and limited consumption power of residents, it is difficult for local merchants and foreign brands to support the survival of many large-scale commercial entities. Therefore, commercial real estate leasing is also underdeveloped.
Zhang Dawei analyzed, first of all, the core of destocking is the population, the core of the population is the industry, and the destocking without population increase is exhaustion and fishing. The key to third- and fourth-tier cities is to adjust the industrial structure, guide the increase of the proportion of the tertiary industry, and enhance the absorption capacity of the population.
"Secondly, no one buys a house without appreciation, so it is necessary to reduce the cost of buying a house and let the property have an investment value." Zhang Dawei said that the cost reduction is not a down payment, but a mortgage cost should be reduced so that the risk will not accumulate. However, there have been a lot of cases in which the down payment for home purchases has been reduced and the interest rate has not decreased. The risk is very high. In the future, banks should be guided to lower the mortgage loan interest rate.
Enhance the attractiveness of third- and fourth-tier cities and increase population inflows to fundamentally digest real estate inventories. He Tao analyzed that since the second half of 2015, the housing market in the first-tier cities has obviously warmed up and passed to some second-tier cities, but it is difficult to pass further from second-tier cities to third- and fourth-tier cities and small towns.
The main reason for this phenomenon is that the industrial development in the third- and fourth-tier cities is insufficient, and the public supporting resources are insufficient. Many wealthy third- and fourth-tier cities are moving to second-tier cities for their children's education and medical care for the elderly. Therefore, third- and fourth-tier cities It is necessary to digest inventories by enhancing the attractiveness of the surrounding population, including promoting the economic development of third- and fourth-tier cities, enhancing the overall competitiveness of cities, expanding the employment of migrant workers, and allowing migrant workers in cities to afford housing. In addition, it is necessary to achieve full coverage in public services. For example, after migrant workers become new citizens, medical insurance and social security must keep up, and children's education problems must be resolved.
In the interview, many industry insiders said that most of the investment-type buyers are affected by market sentiment, and they like to chase and rise, which leads to the market becoming hot and cold, which in turn will stimulate the disorderly and irrational development of real estate developers. The real estate market is now under pressure. In the future, if we really develop into a healthy market with a healthy operation, we must give priority to meeting and encouraging rigid demand and improved demand, rationally adjust the number of developers, accelerate the structural adjustment of the real estate market, and stabilize housing prices. In a rational market, rigid demand and investment-type buyers can rationally judge decisions according to their own circumstances, so that improved demand is no longer on the sidelines, and it also dispels the tendency of investment-type demand to follow suit.

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