After continuing to maintain a stable operation for nearly 50 days, domestic ordinary long products and plate prices began to develop in late April. The market price has risen significantly. The current increase is still further expanding, and it is almost certain that it will form in the near future. The second major upswing since 2007. As of the end of April, the price of high-speed universal lines has risen by 150 yuan/ton, the price of secondary large-size thread has risen by 120 yuan/ton, and the price of large-size thread products by three levels has risen by 190 yuan/ton; the price of ordinary steel plates has risen. 250 yuan / ton, special steel plate rose a total of 350 yuan / ton. [Blue Whale Steel Studio] believes that the sudden increase in the strength of the steel market before the “May 1st†festival has given people a reason to be optimistic about the outlook for the steel market in May.
1. The successful price increase of plate prices has become a leading factor in the overall upward adjustment of steel prices in May. At the end of the month, the “North China Five Steels†meeting was a strengthening factor for the overall increase in prices for the current round.
1. The domestic steel market after the Spring Festival was a quiet one. From March 1 to April 20, although the price of steel products also showed a slight wave dynamic trend, there was no obvious increase. In this interval, the high-speed wire rod price in the North China market rose by a negative 20 yuan/ton, the cumulative increase in the secondary thread was negative by 10 yuan/ton, the cumulative increase by the tertiary thread was 20 yuan/ton, and the total carbon plate accumulated. The price increase was RMB 30/tonne; in the East China market, the cumulative increase in high-speed wire rod prices in Shanghai was also negative RMB 20/ton, the cumulative increase in secondary thread was zero, the cumulative increase in tertiary thread was negative RMB 40/ton, and the carbon medium plate was used. The cumulative price increase was RMB 30/t; in South China, the high-speed wire price in Guangzhou market rose by RMB 30/t, the cumulative increase in secondary thread was RMB 20/t, and the cumulative increase in tertiary thread was negative by RMB 60/t. The cumulative price increase of ordinary carbon plate is negative 30 yuan/ton.
Judging from the performance of the above markets, the price fluctuations of long products and common carbon plates in North China, East China, and South China are both within plus or minus 30 yuan/ton. In a period of up to 50 days, such price fluctuations can be realized. Ignoring it.
2. Blue Whale Steel Studio believes that the main factor that really makes the market regain its rising power comes from the plate. As long as the long products market was still drowsy in March, the steel mills showed a strong upward effort, supported by strong factors such as the diversion of export resources and the strength of the international steel market, they did not start in the market. At the time, the steel mills took the lead in introducing a price increase plan, and the price of special steel plates was raised by 150-250 yuan/ton, which was a heavy intention to lead the market. However, the picking up of the price of sheet metal did not cause a positive response to the price of long products. After a slight increase in the long products market, the demand for the long products declined.
In April, the flow direction of plate resources made the steel mills resort to price increases again. Plate prices rose again in mid-April and it was another round of price increase of 150-250 yuan/ton. The blue whale steel studio believes that this price change has successfully reversed the wait-and-see mood in the market mentality (of course there are other factors at the same time, as described below). At present, when the “May 1st†holiday is about to enter, the market mentality is far more optimistic than at the beginning of April, and people are once again confident about the operation of the steel market in May.
Second, social inventories have been significantly reduced, and in particular, the decline in long products stocks in the Beijing market has reached 40%, which has also become an important support factor for the reversal of the trend of the North China steel market.
In early April, the long stock of long products in the Beijing market reached 600,000 tons, an increase of 9.62% over the same period of last year, more than doubled from the previous month! Under the pressure of such a high stock of long products, the mentality of steel mills and circulation companies has undergone subtle changes. However, steel mills and circulation companies are reluctant to give up the price increase in the first two months of this year. The entire steel market suffocates in calm and waits in the suffocation. At present, it seems that the waiting time for steel mills and circulation dealers throughout the month of April is very worthwhile. The long products market has achieved a significant reduction in social stocks under the combined power of steel mills significantly reducing production or increasing export resources. Material stocks have fallen to about 350,000 tons, a 40% drop from the previous quarter. With respect to wire rods, the shortage of resources and specifications for the resources of the general resources and small-size rebars has succeeded in achieving a significant increase in prices. In this situation of resource allocation, the rise in the prices of high-speed Pu-line and large-scale steel bars has become more natural and logical.
Third, a series of macro-related measures related to the steel industry have also become a contributing factor to the rapid rise. The elimination of tax refunds for exports of long products has not only become a weapon to curb the export enthusiasm of steel mills, but has also strengthened the determination of the long steel export strategy for steel mills.
Since the beginning of April, domestic macro policies related to the steel industry have been frequently introduced. Recent trends indicate that the steel market has survived the tremors and not only successfully retained the results of steel price increases for January-February, but also used them as a basis. Again realized the price increase. The rising price has exceeded the price level of the same period of last year. A brief review of the major industry events since April is as follows: First, the central bank raised the reserve ratio for the third time in 90 days; the coal and metallurgical coke market prices, one of the most important fuels for steel smelting, gained further upward momentum, according to 2006. At the 133st executive meeting of the State Council, it was decided to issue a 2007 sustainable development fund standard for tons of coal; 8 ministries jointly issued a document to rectify the real estate market; on April 9, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation released the Notice on Adjusting the Export Tax Refund Rate of Steel Products. For steel mills, the elimination of tax rebates will result in a loss of export profits of approximately 300 yuan/ton; Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council presides over the executive meeting of the State Council to study the deployment of energy conservation and emission reduction efforts. The meeting agreed with the National Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments to formulate the "Comprehensive Work Plan for Energy Saving and Emission Reduction," and decided to establish a leading group for the State Council's energy-saving and emission reduction work, headed by Premier Wen Jiabao. The meeting pointed out that the situation facing the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction is very serious, and some industries with high energy consumption and high pollution have grown too fast. Of particular concern is that this is the second time in nearly two weeks that the State Council has made deployments for energy conservation and emission reduction for the second time. High-pollution, high-emission companies such as the steel industry and the coal industry are facing serious challenges...
It seems that the information that is currently issued is unfavorable to the steel market. However, the steel market has still achieved a reversed trend from low prices to high prices. Of course, the dominant factors are even more. The high steel prices in the international market have become the most steel export steel products. The main driving force is to cancel the export tax rebate. The steel mills still have considerable profits from the global steel boom; and the long resources after the diversion of resources have benefited the supply and demand of the domestic market, and some varieties and specifications are even in short supply. Situation; The domestic economic situation has maintained a trend of rapid development. The increase in the growth rate of urban fixed asset investment has returned to more than 25%, and the demand for steel products has also shown a trend of amplification. However, judging whether the steel market showed an upward trend throughout the second quarter is still too optimistic, but at least in May the steel market situation will continue its prosperity since late April.
(ã€Blue Whale Steel Studio】)
1. The successful price increase of plate prices has become a leading factor in the overall upward adjustment of steel prices in May. At the end of the month, the “North China Five Steels†meeting was a strengthening factor for the overall increase in prices for the current round.
1. The domestic steel market after the Spring Festival was a quiet one. From March 1 to April 20, although the price of steel products also showed a slight wave dynamic trend, there was no obvious increase. In this interval, the high-speed wire rod price in the North China market rose by a negative 20 yuan/ton, the cumulative increase in the secondary thread was negative by 10 yuan/ton, the cumulative increase by the tertiary thread was 20 yuan/ton, and the total carbon plate accumulated. The price increase was RMB 30/tonne; in the East China market, the cumulative increase in high-speed wire rod prices in Shanghai was also negative RMB 20/ton, the cumulative increase in secondary thread was zero, the cumulative increase in tertiary thread was negative RMB 40/ton, and the carbon medium plate was used. The cumulative price increase was RMB 30/t; in South China, the high-speed wire price in Guangzhou market rose by RMB 30/t, the cumulative increase in secondary thread was RMB 20/t, and the cumulative increase in tertiary thread was negative by RMB 60/t. The cumulative price increase of ordinary carbon plate is negative 30 yuan/ton.
Judging from the performance of the above markets, the price fluctuations of long products and common carbon plates in North China, East China, and South China are both within plus or minus 30 yuan/ton. In a period of up to 50 days, such price fluctuations can be realized. Ignoring it.
2. Blue Whale Steel Studio believes that the main factor that really makes the market regain its rising power comes from the plate. As long as the long products market was still drowsy in March, the steel mills showed a strong upward effort, supported by strong factors such as the diversion of export resources and the strength of the international steel market, they did not start in the market. At the time, the steel mills took the lead in introducing a price increase plan, and the price of special steel plates was raised by 150-250 yuan/ton, which was a heavy intention to lead the market. However, the picking up of the price of sheet metal did not cause a positive response to the price of long products. After a slight increase in the long products market, the demand for the long products declined.
In April, the flow direction of plate resources made the steel mills resort to price increases again. Plate prices rose again in mid-April and it was another round of price increase of 150-250 yuan/ton. The blue whale steel studio believes that this price change has successfully reversed the wait-and-see mood in the market mentality (of course there are other factors at the same time, as described below). At present, when the “May 1st†holiday is about to enter, the market mentality is far more optimistic than at the beginning of April, and people are once again confident about the operation of the steel market in May.
Second, social inventories have been significantly reduced, and in particular, the decline in long products stocks in the Beijing market has reached 40%, which has also become an important support factor for the reversal of the trend of the North China steel market.
In early April, the long stock of long products in the Beijing market reached 600,000 tons, an increase of 9.62% over the same period of last year, more than doubled from the previous month! Under the pressure of such a high stock of long products, the mentality of steel mills and circulation companies has undergone subtle changes. However, steel mills and circulation companies are reluctant to give up the price increase in the first two months of this year. The entire steel market suffocates in calm and waits in the suffocation. At present, it seems that the waiting time for steel mills and circulation dealers throughout the month of April is very worthwhile. The long products market has achieved a significant reduction in social stocks under the combined power of steel mills significantly reducing production or increasing export resources. Material stocks have fallen to about 350,000 tons, a 40% drop from the previous quarter. With respect to wire rods, the shortage of resources and specifications for the resources of the general resources and small-size rebars has succeeded in achieving a significant increase in prices. In this situation of resource allocation, the rise in the prices of high-speed Pu-line and large-scale steel bars has become more natural and logical.
Third, a series of macro-related measures related to the steel industry have also become a contributing factor to the rapid rise. The elimination of tax refunds for exports of long products has not only become a weapon to curb the export enthusiasm of steel mills, but has also strengthened the determination of the long steel export strategy for steel mills.
Since the beginning of April, domestic macro policies related to the steel industry have been frequently introduced. Recent trends indicate that the steel market has survived the tremors and not only successfully retained the results of steel price increases for January-February, but also used them as a basis. Again realized the price increase. The rising price has exceeded the price level of the same period of last year. A brief review of the major industry events since April is as follows: First, the central bank raised the reserve ratio for the third time in 90 days; the coal and metallurgical coke market prices, one of the most important fuels for steel smelting, gained further upward momentum, according to 2006. At the 133st executive meeting of the State Council, it was decided to issue a 2007 sustainable development fund standard for tons of coal; 8 ministries jointly issued a document to rectify the real estate market; on April 9, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation released the Notice on Adjusting the Export Tax Refund Rate of Steel Products. For steel mills, the elimination of tax rebates will result in a loss of export profits of approximately 300 yuan/ton; Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council presides over the executive meeting of the State Council to study the deployment of energy conservation and emission reduction efforts. The meeting agreed with the National Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments to formulate the "Comprehensive Work Plan for Energy Saving and Emission Reduction," and decided to establish a leading group for the State Council's energy-saving and emission reduction work, headed by Premier Wen Jiabao. The meeting pointed out that the situation facing the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction is very serious, and some industries with high energy consumption and high pollution have grown too fast. Of particular concern is that this is the second time in nearly two weeks that the State Council has made deployments for energy conservation and emission reduction for the second time. High-pollution, high-emission companies such as the steel industry and the coal industry are facing serious challenges...
It seems that the information that is currently issued is unfavorable to the steel market. However, the steel market has still achieved a reversed trend from low prices to high prices. Of course, the dominant factors are even more. The high steel prices in the international market have become the most steel export steel products. The main driving force is to cancel the export tax rebate. The steel mills still have considerable profits from the global steel boom; and the long resources after the diversion of resources have benefited the supply and demand of the domestic market, and some varieties and specifications are even in short supply. Situation; The domestic economic situation has maintained a trend of rapid development. The increase in the growth rate of urban fixed asset investment has returned to more than 25%, and the demand for steel products has also shown a trend of amplification. However, judging whether the steel market showed an upward trend throughout the second quarter is still too optimistic, but at least in May the steel market situation will continue its prosperity since late April.
(ã€Blue Whale Steel Studio】)
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