International Energy Newsletter: As the international oil prices continue to drastically decline, the domestic refined oil market is waiting to see a serious mood. Several oil product analysts predict that as soon as mid-June, international crude oil prices are expected to fall below 4%, domestic refined oil prices. The down window will open.
Treasure Island's data shows that as of last Friday's close, the international three places of crude oil price change rate was 3.08%. However, the data of Infowang Energy reached 2.65%. The domestic oil price increase window has thus been closed. If international crude oil prices continue to decline, the rate will soon approach the 4% price adjustment window, and the domestic refined oil reduction window will open.
As of 20 o'clock in the evening on the 23rd, the prices of international crude oil in the three places continued to drop. The price of Brent crude oil in the North Sea fell more than 0.5 US dollars per barrel. Analysts believe that on the 24th, the international crude oil price will be a new low, and the prices of crude oil in the three places will change. Will continue to enlarge.
Xia Wang energy analyst Liao Kaijun believes that only the North Sea Brent crude oil price stable at 108 US dollars / barrel below the domestic oil price may be lowered in early June.
Zhuo Chuang Information Oil Product Analyst ** held similar views. He analyzed with the China Economic Times yesterday evening that if the average price of crude oil in the three places did not fall below 107.9 U.S. dollars per barrel, as of mid-June, The rate of change will not fall below 4%, and the NDRC's price adjustment window will be in a "dormant period."
Most analysts believe that if the international crude oil prices continue to decline, in the near future, even if the NDRC does not adjust prices, the preferential rate of domestic gas stations may also increase.
Domestic diesel oil prices that were once firm in price have seen slight adjustments last week. Zhuo Chuang information shows that the average price of 93 domestic gasoline was 9,502 yuan/ton on Friday, and fell to RMB 103/ton in one week; the average price of diesel in No. 0 was 8,531 yuan/ton, and it was 49 yuan/ton in one week.
The prices of Shandong refineries, which are more sensitive to the market, have changed even more. Treasure Island analyst Han Jingyuan said that the ex-factory price of petrol in local refineries has fallen by around RMB 200/ton last week.
Liao Kailu said that on the current supply and demand side, gasoline is relatively loose, while diesel is still a bit tight.
However, the continuous expansion of the loss of the refinery will allow the earlier decline to shrink. As of May 19, the straight-distilled fuel oil loss of 138.78 yuan per ton in the ground refining process, a substantial increase from last week's loss rate of 116.3 yuan / ton.
** said that if the international crude oil price continues to be tested in the short term, it will not rule out the possibility of re-inspection. The centralized overhaul of CNPC and Sinopec before and after July may affect the supply of domestic refined oil. Including Sinopec's Jiujiang Petrochemical, Qingdao refinery; PetroChina's Dushanzi refinery, Jinxi Petrochemical, Lanzhou Petrochemical some devices will face the suspension of maintenance.
The analysis agency judged that around July, the refineries of Sinopec and PetroChina’s refineries planned for maintenance would involve a processing capacity of 36 million tons per year.
"If international oil prices continue to soar, they will once again stimulate the market's price adjustment expectation, the speculative demand for oil to rise, and the shortage of electricity in the summer may be offset by the use of 'oil instead of electricity', all of which will bring about the supply of refined oil. With certain tests, it is expected that domestic oil supply will remain tight in August and September. Han Jingyuan analyzed with the China Economic Times yesterday evening.
Treasure Island's data shows that as of last Friday's close, the international three places of crude oil price change rate was 3.08%. However, the data of Infowang Energy reached 2.65%. The domestic oil price increase window has thus been closed. If international crude oil prices continue to decline, the rate will soon approach the 4% price adjustment window, and the domestic refined oil reduction window will open.
As of 20 o'clock in the evening on the 23rd, the prices of international crude oil in the three places continued to drop. The price of Brent crude oil in the North Sea fell more than 0.5 US dollars per barrel. Analysts believe that on the 24th, the international crude oil price will be a new low, and the prices of crude oil in the three places will change. Will continue to enlarge.
Xia Wang energy analyst Liao Kaijun believes that only the North Sea Brent crude oil price stable at 108 US dollars / barrel below the domestic oil price may be lowered in early June.
Zhuo Chuang Information Oil Product Analyst ** held similar views. He analyzed with the China Economic Times yesterday evening that if the average price of crude oil in the three places did not fall below 107.9 U.S. dollars per barrel, as of mid-June, The rate of change will not fall below 4%, and the NDRC's price adjustment window will be in a "dormant period."
Most analysts believe that if the international crude oil prices continue to decline, in the near future, even if the NDRC does not adjust prices, the preferential rate of domestic gas stations may also increase.
Domestic diesel oil prices that were once firm in price have seen slight adjustments last week. Zhuo Chuang information shows that the average price of 93 domestic gasoline was 9,502 yuan/ton on Friday, and fell to RMB 103/ton in one week; the average price of diesel in No. 0 was 8,531 yuan/ton, and it was 49 yuan/ton in one week.
The prices of Shandong refineries, which are more sensitive to the market, have changed even more. Treasure Island analyst Han Jingyuan said that the ex-factory price of petrol in local refineries has fallen by around RMB 200/ton last week.
Liao Kailu said that on the current supply and demand side, gasoline is relatively loose, while diesel is still a bit tight.
However, the continuous expansion of the loss of the refinery will allow the earlier decline to shrink. As of May 19, the straight-distilled fuel oil loss of 138.78 yuan per ton in the ground refining process, a substantial increase from last week's loss rate of 116.3 yuan / ton.
** said that if the international crude oil price continues to be tested in the short term, it will not rule out the possibility of re-inspection. The centralized overhaul of CNPC and Sinopec before and after July may affect the supply of domestic refined oil. Including Sinopec's Jiujiang Petrochemical, Qingdao refinery; PetroChina's Dushanzi refinery, Jinxi Petrochemical, Lanzhou Petrochemical some devices will face the suspension of maintenance.
The analysis agency judged that around July, the refineries of Sinopec and PetroChina’s refineries planned for maintenance would involve a processing capacity of 36 million tons per year.
"If international oil prices continue to soar, they will once again stimulate the market's price adjustment expectation, the speculative demand for oil to rise, and the shortage of electricity in the summer may be offset by the use of 'oil instead of electricity', all of which will bring about the supply of refined oil. With certain tests, it is expected that domestic oil supply will remain tight in August and September. Han Jingyuan analyzed with the China Economic Times yesterday evening.
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