2011 is the adjustment period of the global electronics industry. Under the background of not being optimistic about the macroeconomic environment both at home and abroad and the continuous cross-border integration of industries, the Semiconductor Applications Alliance has invited the elites of the electronics industry to launch the hot spots and trends of the industry in 2012. For discussion and discussion, the author chooses what to do to interpret it.
The recovery of the semiconductor industry is still unclear, "cloud" plus "end" rapid growth of the investment industry, said the electronics industry analyst Yu Fan, said the semiconductor industry has its specific fluctuation cycle, the general cycle time is 1 to 2 years. New technologies represented by PCs, mobile phones, and the Internet have propelled the upswing of the previous cycle. After the 2008 financial crisis, the semiconductor industry entered a downward range. In 2009, the smart terminal promoted a recovery. By the time of the debt crisis, the industry fell again in 2010. Now it is the longest recession period in history. In 2012, it is still unclear whether the semiconductor industry can recover. According to the investigation of investment permits, the inventory level of most manufacturers is still at a normal level, so the business climate in the first quarter of 2012 may still be lower than expected, and most manufacturers place their hopes in the second quarter. The driving force of the semiconductor industry has shifted from PCs and TVs to smart phones. In 2012, it will still be a year for semiconductor manufacturers to reduce their inventory levels.
Opportunities were born in the crisis and there was no lack of growth in the downturn. Foxconn Huabei Investment Director Li Renjie believes that the two big pieces of 3C products are growing rapidly. One is a smart phone and the other is a tablet computer. Some functions of other consumer electronics will slowly be integrated into these two categories of products.
Li Renjie believes that “cloud†plus “end†is the driving force for growth in the future. “End†mainly refers to the mobile (Tablet, Smart Phone) and entertainment (Smart TV). Such “cloud†plus “end†is fast. Grow and build your own industry chain. The competition in the future is bound to be the competition of the entire industry chain, not a single company and product. The competition is not limited to hardware, but also software, services, content, shopping, e-books (such as Amazon), etc. Hardware will only become cheaper and cheaper.
TV gets new life and focuses on user experience and business model in 2012 Yang Jun, director of marketing at Mstar, stated that Chinese brands in the color TV market performed well in 2011, turning from general losses in 2010 to earnings in 2011. There are 2 companies with more than 1 billion profit, and others are also good. Global flat-panel TV shipments exceeded 200 million units, and China’s LCD TV shipments reached 44 million. Internet TV accounted for about 30% of total shipments in 2011, and the proportion of 3D TVs also reached 15%. In December, the percentage of 3D TVs shipped by individual manufacturers even exceeded 40%. These products are becoming new opportunities for China's color TV.
In 2012, Cloud TV will become a new promotional highlight, and the price of 3D TV products will be a foregone conclusion. Because of the decline in panel prices and the opening of CCTV's 3D channel, the penetration of 3D TV will deepen. In this wave of television technology upgrade wave, Yang Jun believes that the future manufacturer's core competitiveness is software, 2012 Mstar will put Android's planning in a very important position.
For the development of the TV industry in 2012, Bai Dai, deputy head of the Skyworth Research Institute, stated that he must focus on two points: 1. To do a good user experience; 2. To achieve model innovation. In terms of user experience, appearance is very important, but to achieve light and thin fashion will bring great pressure on the technology, for example, the current number of interfaces, in the trend of light and thin must be reformed. In addition, the human-computer interaction between television and users is also on the eve of change. Bai Lan said that the remote control had liberated the hands of consumers 30 years ago. Today's human-computer interaction technology has not changed much from 30 years ago. The next step needs to be explored by the industry.
In terms of model innovation, all manufacturers will do Android operating system in 2012. How do you make your own difference? Bai Yue said that Skyworth’s current practice is to use various sensors, such as running blankets, which will bring changes to the entire production chain. Another change in the model is the development, production, sales, and change of the entire ecological chain in the cloud. Baidu believes that the situation in the television industry is a bit like the Internet 10 years ago. Everyone did not know where to go. He estimated that Perhaps the final TV brand will be the same as the Internet brand, the final differentiation into different areas of the brand, Skyworth may focus on health TV this piece.
Yin Haibo, deputy general manager of the Konka Group's Multimedia Global R&D Center, said that no matter how the hardware changes, the trend of convergence in the future is already obvious. The difference is mainly reflected in the software. The Internet giants entered the TV field in a large scale, marking that the 3C focusing center has been transferred to television. The innovation of TV has entered an active period. Looking forward to 2012, the development of LED TVs may exceed expectations. New technologies that are worthy of attention include interactive technologies, built-in wifi, communication functions, etc. The development of 3D TVs is increasingly demanding for 3D graphic interface processing capabilities and 3D content. .
The growth of smart phones is rapid and the trend of industry concentration is apparent to mobile phone channel providers. In 2011, the shipments of 3G mobile phones and smart phones increased significantly, the proportion of 2G mobile phone shipments fell, and the shipments of operators channels also increased. Liu Yulong, General Manager of Tianyin Communications Development Co., Ltd. Guangdong, said that the profits of the distribution channels have declined this year. The original gross margin of retailers was 10%. In 2011, it was only about 8%, and the net profit rate was only 3 to 4%. The gross profit margin also fell from 8% to 3% to 4%, and the net interest rate was less than 1%. The sudden increase in the number of customized products by operators has also rapidly lowered the net profit margin of handset manufacturers from 10% to 4-5%.
In 2012, smart phones will continue to increase momentum. In 2011, the shipment of smartphones soared from 18% at the beginning of the year to 40% in the fourth quarter. In 2012, the proportion will exceed 70%. In addition, the trend of industrial concentration is even more pronounced. Liu Yulong said that in 2012, the trend of concentration of handset brands and concentration of models will increase, and the single model will reach a peak of tens of millions. He predicts that the retailer's profit source will shift in three directions in 2012: 1. Operator subsidies, commissions, 2. The profit of selling accessories is rising; 3. Sales application software, brush service.
Wei Jun, general manager of Gecom Microelectronics (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., spoke about his views on 2G mobile phones. Although the current shift of 2G mobile phones to 3G mobile smart phones is fast, it will not disappear immediately due to its price advantage. It is estimated that 2G mobile phones on the Chinese market in 2012 will also have 80 to 100 million capacity.
In addition to changes in hardware, smart phone software is also facing changes. Wei Yongming, CEO of Beijing Feynman Software Technology Co., Ltd., said that the focus of work in 2012 will shift from the mobile Internet to Android and smart phones. The HTML5 in 2012 is worth paying attention to. This technology will make the operating system no longer important. Afterwards the program can be written once and it can be distributed to all the machines, which may lead to a new shuffle. There are two trends in Android and mobile Internet shuffling in 2012: 1. The degree of industry concentration increases, and large industries accommodate more resources; 2. The development team is divided, terminal and chip manufacturers will accommodate more people, a little more strength to do IOS, small teams to do outsourcing.
Emerging industry issues and opportunities such as medical electronics, vehicle networking, and LED exist in other electronics industries. The medical electronics industry is a gold mine, but Liu Mingyu, director of strategic development at Shenzhen Lanyun Industrial Co., Ltd., said that the medical electronics industry is also competing. Quite fierce. According to estimates by Liu, in 2011 there were more than 560 enterprises in Shenzhen engaged in the production of medical devices, including active and passive, and the output value was about 23 billion. During the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan, Shenzhen’s medical industry plans 200 billion RMB, and its medical device planning is 800 billion, with huge growth potential.
Medical devices belong to the franchise industry and their regulatory threshold is relatively high. Liu said that in 2011, the law enforcement scale became stricter, and it was becoming more and more difficult to make products to market, and the industry’s competition was getting higher and higher. After the first product was made, the speed of imitating was getting faster and faster, so that suppliers and channel vendors were all involved in the price war. In addition, the manufacturer's shipments were not large, so the profits have been falling.
In 2012, Lan Yun will focus on traditional equipment. The opportunity is mainly at 3: 1. Grass-roots applications need to provide lower use costs; 2. Home electronics and mobile electronics, mainly for the five groups of the elderly, sick and sick; 3. Outdoor, sports, first aid products, 4. Cloud health and mobile health.
The Internet of Things rolled up an upsurge in 2011. As one of the relatively fast-moving forces of the Internet of Things, the Internet of Things has opened up the market with car audio as a breakthrough. Zhou Yaowen, deputy general manager of China Unicom's Huizhou branch, said that the automotive audio industry in Huizhou already accounts for 6-70% of the national car audio. The development of the industry chain including manufacturing, content, transportation, body safety and entertainment is already quite complete. It is now possible to provide all solutions for car audio manufacturing from large car manufacturers to small 4S shop back-end controls. In 2011, five brands at home and abroad used the standard car audio from Huizhou Unicom, and there were also 150,000 to 200,000 car stereos shipped in the aftermarket Huizhou.
Although the car audio sales are good, but in the view of the general manager of Shenzhen Moson Car Code, Jiang Rui, the current car networking business model we still do not want to understand that large automotive electronics manufacturers are still content to sell through the name of the car network hardware. In the future, the development of one-touch communication and the interaction between the car and the mobile phone tablet is a general trend, and the free service is an inevitable trend. However, there are basically no manufacturers that can provide free services. The Moson Car Code was able to provide free services in 2011 with nearly half of Shenzhen's 4S stores, but now it seems there are some problems that need to find other ways to integrate with users.
The LED industry can be described as unsatisfactory in 2011, but the popularity of the listing is undiminished and is expected to continue throughout 2012. Zhang Hua, a senior researcher at Shenzhen Innovation Investment Group Co., Ltd., believes from the perspective of investment, that the continued decline in the domestic PE board's PE value indicates that the domestic market has entered a period of high investment costs and low yields. In 2011, China's LED industry chain manufacturers were listed except for sapphire manufacturers. As a company focused on LED lighting, QinShang Optoelectronic Co., Ltd. took only 24 days from the approval of issuance to listing, which is focused on LED lighting manufacturers. An encouragement. In 2011, the demand for LED backlights was not as large as originally estimated, and LED lighting did not really take off. It now appears that most of the upstream investments are on Blu-ray chips. The risk of LED lighting if it does not start as expected is great. The price of sapphire substrate has dropped from 35 US dollars to 7 US dollars at the end of 2011. Most of the manufacturers have hoped to put the lighting market after the third quarter of 2012 or 2013. At present, public opinion believes that the Chinese government will issue a subsidy policy in the middle or late 2012. The policy may follow the green lighting engineering policy for energy-saving lamps in 2008, and adopt a plan to subsidize the purchase price of LED bulbs by 30 to 50%, in 3 to 5 During the year, a total of 100 million to 200 million LED bulbs or subsidies amounted to US$1.0 billion to US$2 billion were subsidized.
The recovery of the semiconductor industry is still unclear, "cloud" plus "end" rapid growth of the investment industry, said the electronics industry analyst Yu Fan, said the semiconductor industry has its specific fluctuation cycle, the general cycle time is 1 to 2 years. New technologies represented by PCs, mobile phones, and the Internet have propelled the upswing of the previous cycle. After the 2008 financial crisis, the semiconductor industry entered a downward range. In 2009, the smart terminal promoted a recovery. By the time of the debt crisis, the industry fell again in 2010. Now it is the longest recession period in history. In 2012, it is still unclear whether the semiconductor industry can recover. According to the investigation of investment permits, the inventory level of most manufacturers is still at a normal level, so the business climate in the first quarter of 2012 may still be lower than expected, and most manufacturers place their hopes in the second quarter. The driving force of the semiconductor industry has shifted from PCs and TVs to smart phones. In 2012, it will still be a year for semiconductor manufacturers to reduce their inventory levels.
Opportunities were born in the crisis and there was no lack of growth in the downturn. Foxconn Huabei Investment Director Li Renjie believes that the two big pieces of 3C products are growing rapidly. One is a smart phone and the other is a tablet computer. Some functions of other consumer electronics will slowly be integrated into these two categories of products.
Li Renjie believes that “cloud†plus “end†is the driving force for growth in the future. “End†mainly refers to the mobile (Tablet, Smart Phone) and entertainment (Smart TV). Such “cloud†plus “end†is fast. Grow and build your own industry chain. The competition in the future is bound to be the competition of the entire industry chain, not a single company and product. The competition is not limited to hardware, but also software, services, content, shopping, e-books (such as Amazon), etc. Hardware will only become cheaper and cheaper.
TV gets new life and focuses on user experience and business model in 2012 Yang Jun, director of marketing at Mstar, stated that Chinese brands in the color TV market performed well in 2011, turning from general losses in 2010 to earnings in 2011. There are 2 companies with more than 1 billion profit, and others are also good. Global flat-panel TV shipments exceeded 200 million units, and China’s LCD TV shipments reached 44 million. Internet TV accounted for about 30% of total shipments in 2011, and the proportion of 3D TVs also reached 15%. In December, the percentage of 3D TVs shipped by individual manufacturers even exceeded 40%. These products are becoming new opportunities for China's color TV.
In 2012, Cloud TV will become a new promotional highlight, and the price of 3D TV products will be a foregone conclusion. Because of the decline in panel prices and the opening of CCTV's 3D channel, the penetration of 3D TV will deepen. In this wave of television technology upgrade wave, Yang Jun believes that the future manufacturer's core competitiveness is software, 2012 Mstar will put Android's planning in a very important position.
For the development of the TV industry in 2012, Bai Dai, deputy head of the Skyworth Research Institute, stated that he must focus on two points: 1. To do a good user experience; 2. To achieve model innovation. In terms of user experience, appearance is very important, but to achieve light and thin fashion will bring great pressure on the technology, for example, the current number of interfaces, in the trend of light and thin must be reformed. In addition, the human-computer interaction between television and users is also on the eve of change. Bai Lan said that the remote control had liberated the hands of consumers 30 years ago. Today's human-computer interaction technology has not changed much from 30 years ago. The next step needs to be explored by the industry.
In terms of model innovation, all manufacturers will do Android operating system in 2012. How do you make your own difference? Bai Yue said that Skyworth’s current practice is to use various sensors, such as running blankets, which will bring changes to the entire production chain. Another change in the model is the development, production, sales, and change of the entire ecological chain in the cloud. Baidu believes that the situation in the television industry is a bit like the Internet 10 years ago. Everyone did not know where to go. He estimated that Perhaps the final TV brand will be the same as the Internet brand, the final differentiation into different areas of the brand, Skyworth may focus on health TV this piece.
Yin Haibo, deputy general manager of the Konka Group's Multimedia Global R&D Center, said that no matter how the hardware changes, the trend of convergence in the future is already obvious. The difference is mainly reflected in the software. The Internet giants entered the TV field in a large scale, marking that the 3C focusing center has been transferred to television. The innovation of TV has entered an active period. Looking forward to 2012, the development of LED TVs may exceed expectations. New technologies that are worthy of attention include interactive technologies, built-in wifi, communication functions, etc. The development of 3D TVs is increasingly demanding for 3D graphic interface processing capabilities and 3D content. .
The growth of smart phones is rapid and the trend of industry concentration is apparent to mobile phone channel providers. In 2011, the shipments of 3G mobile phones and smart phones increased significantly, the proportion of 2G mobile phone shipments fell, and the shipments of operators channels also increased. Liu Yulong, General Manager of Tianyin Communications Development Co., Ltd. Guangdong, said that the profits of the distribution channels have declined this year. The original gross margin of retailers was 10%. In 2011, it was only about 8%, and the net profit rate was only 3 to 4%. The gross profit margin also fell from 8% to 3% to 4%, and the net interest rate was less than 1%. The sudden increase in the number of customized products by operators has also rapidly lowered the net profit margin of handset manufacturers from 10% to 4-5%.
In 2012, smart phones will continue to increase momentum. In 2011, the shipment of smartphones soared from 18% at the beginning of the year to 40% in the fourth quarter. In 2012, the proportion will exceed 70%. In addition, the trend of industrial concentration is even more pronounced. Liu Yulong said that in 2012, the trend of concentration of handset brands and concentration of models will increase, and the single model will reach a peak of tens of millions. He predicts that the retailer's profit source will shift in three directions in 2012: 1. Operator subsidies, commissions, 2. The profit of selling accessories is rising; 3. Sales application software, brush service.
Wei Jun, general manager of Gecom Microelectronics (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., spoke about his views on 2G mobile phones. Although the current shift of 2G mobile phones to 3G mobile smart phones is fast, it will not disappear immediately due to its price advantage. It is estimated that 2G mobile phones on the Chinese market in 2012 will also have 80 to 100 million capacity.
In addition to changes in hardware, smart phone software is also facing changes. Wei Yongming, CEO of Beijing Feynman Software Technology Co., Ltd., said that the focus of work in 2012 will shift from the mobile Internet to Android and smart phones. The HTML5 in 2012 is worth paying attention to. This technology will make the operating system no longer important. Afterwards the program can be written once and it can be distributed to all the machines, which may lead to a new shuffle. There are two trends in Android and mobile Internet shuffling in 2012: 1. The degree of industry concentration increases, and large industries accommodate more resources; 2. The development team is divided, terminal and chip manufacturers will accommodate more people, a little more strength to do IOS, small teams to do outsourcing.
Emerging industry issues and opportunities such as medical electronics, vehicle networking, and LED exist in other electronics industries. The medical electronics industry is a gold mine, but Liu Mingyu, director of strategic development at Shenzhen Lanyun Industrial Co., Ltd., said that the medical electronics industry is also competing. Quite fierce. According to estimates by Liu, in 2011 there were more than 560 enterprises in Shenzhen engaged in the production of medical devices, including active and passive, and the output value was about 23 billion. During the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan, Shenzhen’s medical industry plans 200 billion RMB, and its medical device planning is 800 billion, with huge growth potential.
Medical devices belong to the franchise industry and their regulatory threshold is relatively high. Liu said that in 2011, the law enforcement scale became stricter, and it was becoming more and more difficult to make products to market, and the industry’s competition was getting higher and higher. After the first product was made, the speed of imitating was getting faster and faster, so that suppliers and channel vendors were all involved in the price war. In addition, the manufacturer's shipments were not large, so the profits have been falling.
In 2012, Lan Yun will focus on traditional equipment. The opportunity is mainly at 3: 1. Grass-roots applications need to provide lower use costs; 2. Home electronics and mobile electronics, mainly for the five groups of the elderly, sick and sick; 3. Outdoor, sports, first aid products, 4. Cloud health and mobile health.
The Internet of Things rolled up an upsurge in 2011. As one of the relatively fast-moving forces of the Internet of Things, the Internet of Things has opened up the market with car audio as a breakthrough. Zhou Yaowen, deputy general manager of China Unicom's Huizhou branch, said that the automotive audio industry in Huizhou already accounts for 6-70% of the national car audio. The development of the industry chain including manufacturing, content, transportation, body safety and entertainment is already quite complete. It is now possible to provide all solutions for car audio manufacturing from large car manufacturers to small 4S shop back-end controls. In 2011, five brands at home and abroad used the standard car audio from Huizhou Unicom, and there were also 150,000 to 200,000 car stereos shipped in the aftermarket Huizhou.
Although the car audio sales are good, but in the view of the general manager of Shenzhen Moson Car Code, Jiang Rui, the current car networking business model we still do not want to understand that large automotive electronics manufacturers are still content to sell through the name of the car network hardware. In the future, the development of one-touch communication and the interaction between the car and the mobile phone tablet is a general trend, and the free service is an inevitable trend. However, there are basically no manufacturers that can provide free services. The Moson Car Code was able to provide free services in 2011 with nearly half of Shenzhen's 4S stores, but now it seems there are some problems that need to find other ways to integrate with users.
The LED industry can be described as unsatisfactory in 2011, but the popularity of the listing is undiminished and is expected to continue throughout 2012. Zhang Hua, a senior researcher at Shenzhen Innovation Investment Group Co., Ltd., believes from the perspective of investment, that the continued decline in the domestic PE board's PE value indicates that the domestic market has entered a period of high investment costs and low yields. In 2011, China's LED industry chain manufacturers were listed except for sapphire manufacturers. As a company focused on LED lighting, QinShang Optoelectronic Co., Ltd. took only 24 days from the approval of issuance to listing, which is focused on LED lighting manufacturers. An encouragement. In 2011, the demand for LED backlights was not as large as originally estimated, and LED lighting did not really take off. It now appears that most of the upstream investments are on Blu-ray chips. The risk of LED lighting if it does not start as expected is great. The price of sapphire substrate has dropped from 35 US dollars to 7 US dollars at the end of 2011. Most of the manufacturers have hoped to put the lighting market after the third quarter of 2012 or 2013. At present, public opinion believes that the Chinese government will issue a subsidy policy in the middle or late 2012. The policy may follow the green lighting engineering policy for energy-saving lamps in 2008, and adopt a plan to subsidize the purchase price of LED bulbs by 30 to 50%, in 3 to 5 During the year, a total of 100 million to 200 million LED bulbs or subsidies amounted to US$1.0 billion to US$2 billion were subsidized.
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