CEC questioned the proposed adjustment of control power as a monitoring indicator

To properly control the total energy consumption, the new policy in the energy sector has yet to reach a final consensus.

At the time of policy brewing, the high-level conferences and documents such as the Fifth Plenary Session of the Seventeenth Central Committee, the National "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" Outline, and the "Twelfth Five-Year Comprehensive Energy-saving and Emission-reducing and Emission-reducing Work Program" clearly stated that the full implementation of energy consumption intensity And total control requirements.

According to the reporter’s understanding, the current idea of ​​total energy consumption control is to control not only the total energy consumption but also the total amount of electricity used. For this idea of ​​operation, the power industry does not agree internally. The power industry hopes to adjust its control objectives to predictive monitoring indicators.

The goal of the total energy consumption control put forward by the National Development and Reform Commission is that by 2015 China's total energy consumption will be controlled at about 4.1 billion tons of standard coal, and electricity consumption will be controlled at 6.4 trillion kWh.

According to the energy statistics official of the National Bureau of Statistics, among the energy consumption of many varieties, the power consumption is the most transparent, real-time measurement, real-time monitoring, and timely feedback. There is a relatively stable proportional relationship between electricity consumption and energy consumption in countries, regions and enterprises. "Therefore, the National Development and Reform Commission intends to use the electricity consumption index as the main means of controlling total energy consumption."

At present, local provinces are also working out plans for the implementation of the province's total energy consumption control and assessment methods, and will implement double control over the intensity of energy consumption and total amount.

The Hunan Provincial Consultation Draft proposed that the total energy consumption control target of Hunan Province in 2015 was 201 million tons of standard coal, and the power control target was 185 billion kwh.

An electric power industry expert said: "If you limit the total amount of electricity, it means that the growth of electricity production and consumption is limited, which limits the scale of development of electric power installations. This is not conducive to the development of the electric power industry."

On February 26, in the “2012 Economic Situation and Power Development Analysis and Forecasting Meeting”, CEC represented the national power sector on behalf of the power industry and suggested that “the power consumption in 2015 should be adjusted from the control objective to the predictive monitoring indicator.”

CEC Secretary-General Wang Zhixuan said at the meeting: “The main consideration is that electricity is a kind of high-quality, clean and convenient secondary energy. Realizing electrification is an important foundation for building a well-to-do society in an all-round way. The development of the electric power industry is promoting the continuous increase in the conversion rate of energy resources. It will play an irreplaceable role in achieving the large-scale utilization of clean renewable energy and meeting people’s increasing material and cultural life.”

According to the calculation of CEC, under the same equivalent weight, the economic value of electricity generated is equivalent to 17.3 times that of coal and 3.2 times that of oil. As the share of electricity consumption in total energy consumption increases by one percentage point, the energy efficiency of the entire society increases by 4 percentage points.

“Therefore, in China, where the level of electrification is not high and the per capita electricity consumption is far lower than that of advanced countries, it is not appropriate to control electricity consumption quantitatively. Economic and price measures should be adopted to promote savings and effective use,” said Wang Zhixuan.

CEC predicts that the growth rate of electricity consumption during the 12th Five-Year Plan period will be 7.5 to 9.5%. In 2015, the total electricity consumption will reach 6 to 6.6 trillion kwh. This forecast has at least 20 million kWh difference with the 6.4 trillion kilowatt-hour electricity control target set by the NDRC.

Wang Zhixuan said: “In addition to this, if electricity is the main control target, local consumption of coal, oil, gas, and other energy sources may increase, contradicting the original intention of total control. Scientific means to complete the assessment of total energy consumption control."

Another electric power industry expert said that from the analysis of the electric power industry chain, the control of electricity consumption will indirectly affect the efficiency of the power generation companies, especially the investment enthusiasm of thermal power will decline. Statistics show that in the power investment in 2011, thermal power investment was only 46.4% in 2005, and it has been reduced for the sixth consecutive year, and the proportion of thermal power investment in power investment has dropped by 28.4%.

CEC experts have repeatedly reminded that if this pattern continues, domestic power supply and demand balance guarantee capacity will be weakened, and future impact will be further presented.

CEC, in its "2012 National Electricity Supply and Demand Situation Analysis and Forecast Report," proposes to use the economic adjustment methods such as electricity tariffs to deepen the demand-side management and orderly use of electricity measures and promote economic restructuring. For example, the introduction and implementation of differential electricity prices, punitive electricity prices and peaks and valleys and other price measures to form a structural adjustment and energy saving mechanism.

Promote energy-saving and energy-saving technologies, implement contract energy management, limit unreasonable energy demand, promote industrial restructuring and changes in development methods, and implement alternative electricity strategies such as replacing electricity with electricity, replacing coal with electricity, and improving electricity consumption in terminal consumption. The proportion of.