China Chemical Information Network December 20:
Ethylene oxide industry characteristics - dangerous chemicals are difficult to transport long distances, mainly ethylene production, it also determines the layout of deep processing of ethylene oxide followed by large petrochemical;
- The technology of ethylene oxide production and downstream derivatives is mature, and technology does not constitute a substantial barrier;
- The downstream demand for ethylene oxide has increased rapidly, and the self-sufficiency rate of domestic downstream demand is low;
- In the long term, the price of ethylene oxide is related to the price of ethylene glycol, which in turn constitutes a large correlation with downstream textiles and apparel; within a span of several years, the price of ethylene oxide depends on the magnitude of the impact of supply shocks;
- Other routes of production of ethylene oxide/ethylene glycol: Ethanol to ethylene oxide, coal to ethylene glycol is noteworthy, but due to quantitative factors, will not cause changes in the supply pattern in the short term.
The downstream demand is rapidly growing and the supply is tight – It is estimated that by 2012, China’s equivalent consumption of ethylene oxide will reach 6.8 million tons, and the equivalent production capacity of ethylene oxide will be only about 4.7 million tons at that time, still heavily dependent on import. It is estimated that the market demand for ethylene oxide in China will reach approximately 950,000 tons in 2010, of which 300,000 tons for non-ionic surfactants, 280,000 tons for polyether polyols, 150,000 tons for ethanolamines, and 10% for choline chloride. Million tons, pharmaceutical intermediates 40,000 tons, 80,000 tons for other uses.
On the supply side, the commodity ethylene oxide Sinopec holds 46% of the market share, CNPC holds a 19% share, and Ordnance Industries Group and Sanjiang Chemical hold respectively 15% and 10% of the market share. The increase in the supply of ethylene oxide is linked to major refining and chemical projects, and the tight supply pattern will continue to be maintained in the next few years.
Investment advice from the industrial chain perspective, the ethylene oxide industry is still strong downstream demand, there is a bottleneck in the supply of ethylene oxide in the middle reaches, the upstream supply of ethylene, ethanol and other smooth, the current period of time is still concentrated in the middle reaches of ethylene oxide profit In the production process of alkanes, the investment thinking we believe should be a company that has prioritised the production of ethylene oxide, taking into consideration the enterprises with special competitive advantages in the downstream.
Recent Market Review Recently, the domestic ethylene oxide level remained stable, due to the shutdown and overhaul of minor petrol faults in Shanghai Petrochemical, the maintenance of the Zhenhai refinery unit, and the tight supply surface in East China. In addition, the Maoming Petrochemical plant was still under overhaul and the local area in South China Some downstream companies were unable to follow the shutdown and maintenance of ethylene oxide due to purchases. The upstream factors caused the short-term high ethylene oxide levels to remain firm; if the long-term line is used to see all the ethylene oxide units are normally driven, the supply surface will be sufficient, and Tengzhou, Shandong Province will be sufficient. Chenlong device has been officially put into production products, so the negative factors will be filled with ethylene oxide, the relevant agencies believe that late ethylene oxide will face callback pressure.
Ethylene oxide industry characteristics - dangerous chemicals are difficult to transport long distances, mainly ethylene production, it also determines the layout of deep processing of ethylene oxide followed by large petrochemical;
- The technology of ethylene oxide production and downstream derivatives is mature, and technology does not constitute a substantial barrier;
- The downstream demand for ethylene oxide has increased rapidly, and the self-sufficiency rate of domestic downstream demand is low;
- In the long term, the price of ethylene oxide is related to the price of ethylene glycol, which in turn constitutes a large correlation with downstream textiles and apparel; within a span of several years, the price of ethylene oxide depends on the magnitude of the impact of supply shocks;
- Other routes of production of ethylene oxide/ethylene glycol: Ethanol to ethylene oxide, coal to ethylene glycol is noteworthy, but due to quantitative factors, will not cause changes in the supply pattern in the short term.
The downstream demand is rapidly growing and the supply is tight – It is estimated that by 2012, China’s equivalent consumption of ethylene oxide will reach 6.8 million tons, and the equivalent production capacity of ethylene oxide will be only about 4.7 million tons at that time, still heavily dependent on import. It is estimated that the market demand for ethylene oxide in China will reach approximately 950,000 tons in 2010, of which 300,000 tons for non-ionic surfactants, 280,000 tons for polyether polyols, 150,000 tons for ethanolamines, and 10% for choline chloride. Million tons, pharmaceutical intermediates 40,000 tons, 80,000 tons for other uses.
On the supply side, the commodity ethylene oxide Sinopec holds 46% of the market share, CNPC holds a 19% share, and Ordnance Industries Group and Sanjiang Chemical hold respectively 15% and 10% of the market share. The increase in the supply of ethylene oxide is linked to major refining and chemical projects, and the tight supply pattern will continue to be maintained in the next few years.
Investment advice from the industrial chain perspective, the ethylene oxide industry is still strong downstream demand, there is a bottleneck in the supply of ethylene oxide in the middle reaches, the upstream supply of ethylene, ethanol and other smooth, the current period of time is still concentrated in the middle reaches of ethylene oxide profit In the production process of alkanes, the investment thinking we believe should be a company that has prioritised the production of ethylene oxide, taking into consideration the enterprises with special competitive advantages in the downstream.
Recent Market Review Recently, the domestic ethylene oxide level remained stable, due to the shutdown and overhaul of minor petrol faults in Shanghai Petrochemical, the maintenance of the Zhenhai refinery unit, and the tight supply surface in East China. In addition, the Maoming Petrochemical plant was still under overhaul and the local area in South China Some downstream companies were unable to follow the shutdown and maintenance of ethylene oxide due to purchases. The upstream factors caused the short-term high ethylene oxide levels to remain firm; if the long-term line is used to see all the ethylene oxide units are normally driven, the supply surface will be sufficient, and Tengzhou, Shandong Province will be sufficient. Chenlong device has been officially put into production products, so the negative factors will be filled with ethylene oxide, the relevant agencies believe that late ethylene oxide will face callback pressure.
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