This year, the profit of China’s five major power generation groups is like riding a roller coaster, and it’s a net increase of 2.7 times. According to statistics, from January to August this year, the total profit of Huaneng, Datang, Huadian, Guodian, and China Power Investment's five major power generation groups was 49.04 billion yuan. In the same period of 2012, the total profit of the five largest power companies was only RMB 13.14 billion. This year, the rapid growth of profits directly from the thermal power from the loss to win.
Similar changes in the thermal power industry "roller coasters" have changed for the second time. In 2008, it was also less than a year from profit to loss. Take Datang Group as an example. In 2007, it achieved profits of more than 7 billion yuan, and in 2008 it lost another 7 billion yuan. In one year, the margin of profit has exceeded 14 billion yuan.
Why are the profits of thermal power companies ups and downs?
For the losses of previous years, thermal power companies believe that the reason is that coal price linkage is not timely and not in place. However, relevant government departments believe that coal prices are rising and electricity prices are basically linked. For example, in 2008, the country raised its price twice. The loss of thermal power lies in the disorderly competition of thermal power companies, overcapacity, monopoly of thermal power companies, and extensive management, and power generation companies represented by the five major power generation groups are investing indiscriminately.
The author believes that the analysis of the causes of thermal power losses, although the analysis of the relevant government departments have some truth, but can not explain the cause of the huge profit of thermal power this year. According to the above analysis of losses, then is the reason for today's profitability that the level of corporate management has improved, and the order of competition? Obviously, it is inconceivable for a company to improve its management level in less than a year and achieve reunification.
Some people may say that this year's profit from coal-fired power is huge because coal prices have fallen. On the surface, this is indeed the case. But why did the price of coal drop in response to the linkage mechanism and why coal prices did not fall down?
Therefore, the key point of the ups and downs of the thermal power profit lies in the fact that one of the linkage ratios in the national coal-electricity linkage rule is 70% and 30%. The coal price linkage is not full-scale linkage, but only a differential linkage. In other words, when the price of coal rises to push up the price of electricity by 1 cent, the national electricity price will actually only be adjusted by 7 cents, and the remaining 3 cents will be absorbed by the power generation companies themselves.
Power generation companies use large coal producers. The state stipulates that on the one hand, it will help power generation enterprises to strengthen their internal management and strengthen their potential for potential reduction and consumption. On the one hand, it is also conducive to mutual checks and balances on the upstream and downstream sides of the industrial chain.
Practice has proved that this policy design has its rationality, especially at the beginning of the implementation of the policy, the effect is more obvious. However, as time goes by, especially as coal prices continue to rise rapidly and dramatically, their superposition effect continues to increase, and the final quantity becomes a qualitative change. According to statistics, the self-consumption of 30% price increase by the five major power generation groups in these years was 4.4 billion yuan in 2004, 20.2 billion yuan in 2007, and 45.6 billion yuan in 2008, and as high as 97.3 billion yuan in 2011. The increase in the cost of coal to the end of the road has been unable to be eliminated through internal potential tapping. As a result, the thermal power industry has experienced the first “roller coaster†phenomenon, and thermal power companies have suffered losses in the entire industry.
This basic fact later attracted the attention of relevant parties. At the end of 2012, the country took advantage of the downside of coal prices, and decided to adjust the proportion of fluctuations in coal prices consumed by power companies from 30% to 10%. It was this major adjustment of the policy that led directly to the second “roller coasterâ€. - Great profit of thermal power.
It should be emphasized that the great ups and downs are just a rational return. Although the current profit levels of the five major power generation groups have increased by nearly three times compared with their own, their total asset profit margins are only slightly stronger than half of the average number of central enterprises. The consumption of thermal coal accounts for about 70% of the cost of thermal power companies. Even if the price of natural gas is digested by 10%, it is also a burden for thermal power companies.
So far, and even for the foreseeable future, the basic pattern of China's power supply based on thermal power will not fundamentally change. Therefore, maintaining the normal reproduction of thermal power in our country and the need to expand reproduction will play a decisive role in ensuring China’s energy security.
The lessons learned from the ups and downs of the profits of China's thermal power companies are worthy of concise summary. The most fundamental point must adhere to systematic thinking and use objective and realistic data to speak.
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