If the international oil prices continue to rise slightly this week, the NDRC's downward adjustment window has been firmly established. The fastest domestic refined oil market this week will usher in the fourth time this year. 1. The introduction of shale gas subsidy policies, PetroChina, and Sinopec are expected to benefit from the central government's subsidies for shale gas extraction enterprises. The subsidy standard for 2012-2015 is 0.4 yuan/m3. The subsidy standard will be based on the development of shale gas industry. The situation is adjusted. The local finance can give appropriate subsidies for the development and utilization of shale gas according to the development and utilization of shale gas in the local area. The specific standards and subsidy measures shall be determined by the local government according to the local actual conditions.
Zhuochuang believes that the subsidy policy will greatly stimulate the Chinese market, but at present, China's shale gas market is still a long way from real commercialization. Without large-scale commercial development, it is difficult for enterprises to realize profitability. Companies may need to wait until the end of the “Thirteenth Five-Year†period to achieve profitability. Shale gas is currently expensive to develop. A horizontal well reaches 30,000 U.S. dollars, and the completion of a 3,000 m gas well requires about 90 million U.S. dollars. At present, only PetroChina and Sinopec have a gas out of the shale gas block area. Therefore, PetroChina and Sinopec are expected to benefit first from this subsidy policy.
Second, the National Development and Reform Commission adjusts the maximum price limit of refined oil on November 5. The movement rate of crude oil movements in the three places was -3.37%, a decrease of 0.11% from the previous working day, and the moving weighted average price of 22 working days was US$109.5/bbl.
According to the Zhuo Chuang information and data monitoring model, if the average price of crude oil in the three places in the recent three years has remained at the current price of US$105.07 per barrel, it is expected that the rate of change in the three regions will continue to decline in the later period, and will close on November 8 (internationally). -4%. In view of the recent tense situation in the Middle East boosting the sharp rise in the Brent crude oil price, this will push up the average price of crude oil in the later three places. If the average price of crude oil in the three places in the recent three years has kept rising, and the increase is within 2 US dollars per barrel, it is expected that the rate of change in crude oil in the three places will continue to decline in the later period, and it will fall below -4% on November 9.
From the above analysis, it can be seen that if the international oil price keeps rising slightly this week, the opening of the NDRC's downward adjustment window is already a nail. The domestic refined oil market will usher in the fourth time this year at the latest.
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