Net News: The People’s Daily reported in a report on Saturday, August 26 that the fourth batch of eight central environmental protection inspectors will successively visit Jilin, Zhejiang, Shandong, Hainan and Sichuan from August 7 to August 15, 2017. Inspectors from Tibet, Qinghai, Xinjiang (including the Corps) and other provinces (districts) were stationed.
As of August 24, 8 inspected areas had completed 4,869 investigations, including 2,115 cases, and the amount of punishment was 94,924,400 yuan; 122 cases were filed for investigation, 146 people were detained; 1,113 people were interviewed, and 1,797 people were accountable.
The General Secretary of the Ministry of Environmental Protection has launched four batches of central environmental protection inspectors this year by implementing General Secretary Xi Jinping's important instructions on strengthening ecological civilization construction and environmental protection.
It is mentioned earlier on Wall Street that the strongest environmental supervision in the history of this year has caused some sub-sectors to face the situation of outdated production capacity and supply reduction. The analysis pointed out that environmental supervision has brought about a new supply shock, and capacity has continued to be strongly promoted. The probability of a large increase in commodities exceeds the expectations of market owners.
Xinhua News Agency reported that in the first three batches of environmental inspectors, the initial fine was about 880 million yuan, 1,183 cases were investigated and 1,103 people were detained.
The People’s Daily also mentioned that as of August 24, all eight inspectors had basically completed the first-level provincial-level inspector mission and entered the sinking phase. The inspector's time of the sinking city is about 10 days. Through in-depth investigation, the key investigations will be carried out to verify the outstanding environmental issues highlighted by the provincial level inspectors.
Wang Delun team of the Industrial Securities Strategy pointed out that the central environmental protection inspectors continued to increase the number of products, and the environmental protection issues were strictly investigated, affecting the cyclical sector. The production of commodities that may not meet the standards in the short-term, including steel, coal, and non-ferrous metals, may be suspended.
The following is an analysis of the environmental protection and production restrictions of the Xingzheng strategy. For more details, see the original:
In the second half of the year, the focus of environmental protection inspectors continued to be densely distributed, and the catalyst continued. The Ministry of Environmental Protection issued the "Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan", the "Water Pollution Prevention Action Plan", the "Notice on Implementing the Comprehensive Pollution Discharge Plan for Industrial Pollution Sources", and the "Improvement of Emissions from the Thermal Power, Paper Industry and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Pilot Cities" Notice of License Management Work, "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas 2017 Air Pollution Prevention and Control Work Plan", "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas, 2017-2018 Autumn and Winter Air Pollution Comprehensive Management Attacks Action Plan" and other documents, environmental protection limits The production measures exceeded expectations, which will lead to the contraction of the supply end of the non-ferrous, building materials, chemical and other industries, pushing up the price of the plate, and benefiting the industries such as environmental protection.
The key points for the September inspection are:
1) Before the end of September, whether the air pollutants of so2, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter emitted by all coal-fired boilers in the administrative area of ​​the city will implement special emission limits.
2) Whether the completion of the peak production plan and the list preparation work has been completed. Enterprises that do not perform peak-peak production in key industries must check whether the maximum allowable production load has been approved according to the task, and approve or record according to the requirements of the Work Plan.
After October, the key points of supervision are:
1) The completion of the task of banned small scattered and polluting enterprises at the end of October.
2) At the end of October, the completion of the elimination of coal-fired boilers with steamed tons and below, tea stoves and small coal stoves.
3) Before the end of the year, the discharge of sewage discharge permits for 13 industries including cement, flat glass, petrochemical, non-ferrous metals, coking, nitrogen fertilizer, printing and dyeing, raw material manufacturing, tanning, electroplating, pesticides, and agricultural and sideline food processing.
4) Before the end of the year, whether the implementation of the comprehensive emission standards of industrial pollution sources in 8 industries of thermal power, cement, coal, paper, printing and dyeing, sewage treatment plants and waste incineration plants has achieved remarkable results.
: optimistic about the market supply and demand pattern in the second half of the year
The implementation of the heating season is expected to exceed expectations, and the supply and demand pattern is getting better. According to the “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas 2017 Air Pollution Prevention and Control Work Plan†issued in March, for the 2+26 cities, the enterprises will implement classified management during the heating season, and formulate a peak-stop production plan according to the pollution emission performance level. In key cities such as Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Handan and Anyang, the production capacity in the heating season is limited to 50%. In the second half of this year, the special inspectors of the six rounds of 84 days are expected to continue until October, while the heating season is expected to open around November. In addition, the environmental protection will be limited before and after the 19th National Congress, from the perspective of the entire time. Environmental protection is expected to become the main theme throughout the second half of the year.
If the heating season is limited to 50%, it is expected to affect the average daily output of 10-12%. According to the relevant news, the total production capacity of Tangshan, Handan, Shijiazhuang and Anyang is about 2-240 million tons. Assuming capacity utilization rate of 80%, the national output is 800 million tons. If the 50% production limit policy is strictly implemented, then It is expected to affect the average daily output of 10%-12%, and the impact on the supply side should not be underestimated. The supply and demand pattern of the steel market in the second half of the year is still worth looking forward to.
Recommended target: long material faucet (Songgang Songshan, Linggang), sheet (*st Valin, new steel shares), ferrosilicon price increase (Ordos)
Colored: electrolytic aluminum, carbon limited production is in short supply
Due to the environmental protection and limited production in the heating season, the supply of electrolytic aluminum is in short supply. The central government stipulates that the area of ​​environmentally-friendly and limited production of electrolytic aluminum is mainly 2+26 cities in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. It requires 30% of the production of electrolytic aluminum and alumina in the heating season. For carbon enterprises, it is required to limit production after reaching the optimal emission limit. %; Shandong Province has taken the initiative to expand production to the province. The limited production area is China's main production base for electrolytic aluminum, alumina and carbon anodes. The current operating capacity has reached 14 million tons, 36 million tons and 11.6 million tons respectively. According to the production limit, electrolytic aluminum shuts down 4.2 million tons. There are nearly 11 million tons of alumina and 5.8 million tons of carbon. Among them, electrolytic aluminum production capacity accounts for 11% of China's current operating capacity, and the proportion of alumina and carbon increases. Among them, the amount of carbon shutdown is still the most optimistic and conservative, because it is assumed that all carbon companies can reach the optimal emission limit.
Limited production brings two effects. First, the operating capacity is reduced, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum is inevitably a high probability event. Originally, this year's electrolytic aluminum was affected by the cleanup and rectification of illegal projects. It is expected that the illegal operating capacity will be 4.8 million tons. Even if some of the compliance capacity is put into production in the second half of the year, it is also a drop in the bucket. We believe that the operation at the end of the year will be only about 31 million tons, and there will be a gap of several hundred thousand tons or even millions of tons this year. Second, it is difficult for enterprises to resume production. Due to its technical and economic characteristics, electrolytic aluminum has a maintenance restart cost of up to 20 million yuan after the shutdown of 10,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, and the life of the electrolytic cell is reduced by one-third, that is, about three years. Even if the heating season ends next spring, we believe that the real restart capacity is limited. Environmentally limited production is a favorable support for aluminum prices.
Due to the heating season, the production of prebaked anodes will be significantly affected, or the supply will be in short supply, and the price will soar. According to the statistical limited production area, 70% of the prebaked anode capacity in the country is concentrated, and the limited production will shut down nearly 6 million tons of production capacity, corresponding to the output of 12 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, which is much higher than the limit of electrolytic aluminum production limit and illegal production capacity. Thus, the anode production gap is formed by 1.5-2 million tons. In addition, this limited production has exceeded expectations. First, the number of anode companies shut down or exceeded expectations. The production restriction policy requires enterprises to limit production by 50% when the optimal emission limit is reached, so the actual shutdown amount or more than 6 million tons of shutdown capacity. The second is to limit production time or exceed expectations. When the production limit is high, it is necessary to shut down the calciner. It takes 3 months to restart the calciner, which means that the production can be resumed in July. Third, during the period of limited production, the price of petroleum coke is expected to fall, and the performance of anode enterprises will be increased.
Recommended targets: First, Shenhuo shares, the core logic is the lowest valuation; Second, Zhongfu Industrial, the highest margin of safety; Third is Yun Aluminum and Chinalco, and fourth is the development of Suotong, optimistic about the demand for prebaked anodes.
Chemical industry: the shutdown of small and medium-sized enterprises has a significant impact on the supply and demand pattern of the industry
Environmental protection and reshaping industry supply and demand pattern, the duration of this round of chemical cycle is much longer than before, and the company's profit will continue to be realized. With the strictening of environmental protection supervision, some small and medium-sized enterprises have been shut down due to environmental protection failures. The rise of chemical companies from all over the country has accelerated the small and medium-sized small and medium-sized chemical enterprises to clear out, and install and operate various environmental protection. The facilities have also increased the production and operation costs of the enterprise, and promoted the supply-side reform of the chemical industry. The probability of releasing new capacity will be lower than expected. The market share of leading enterprises with technology, scale and environmental advantages is expected to continue to increase. Gradual optimization, the continuation of this process will lead to the longer duration of this round of chemical cycle, and the company's profit will continue to be realized.
Product prices are still in the uptrend channel and performance will continue to improve. Benefiting from environmental factors to promote supply-side reforms continued to advance, the industry's leading performance in the first half of the year generally improved significantly. The current cyclical product price is still in the rising channel, which is determined by the actual supply and demand situation of the industry. At the same time, for many industries, the second half of the year is often the peak season of demand. The supply and demand of temporary products will continue to be tight during the peak season, and enterprises will continue to benefit from Outdated production capacity will clear and product prices will rise, and the third quarter results will continue to improve.
Recommended targets: First, environmental protection is expected to curb the phenomenon of bad money to drive out good money, and it is recommended to lead the white horse with the advantages of industrial chain integration, environmental protection implementation, and greater flexibility, including Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Yangnong Chemical , China Boulder, Sanyou Chemical, etc. Second, recommend the industry and upstream in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the fourth round of environmental protection supervision in key areas of the production capacity is relatively large, environmentally friendly products prices rise under the leadership of the fine-grained industry, including the pesticide sector (Huifeng shares, Limin shares, Su Li shares, etc.), glyphosate and silicone industry (Xingfa Group, Xin'an shares), nh4 lun industry (Huafeng nh4 ray), carbon black industry (black cat shares), pvc industry (Zhongtai Chemical, Hongda Xingye, Xinjiang Tianye, etc.).
Building materials: optimistic about cement and refractory materials
When the peak season comes, the power of supply determines the price of this round of cement is comparable to 13 years:
(1) From the perspective of inventory, the current national cement warehouse is lower than all the years except 13 years, which is 11 percentage points lower than the highest 15 years, which is equivalent to the inventory level in the same period of the same period of the previous 13 years. The current location of the area has fallen below 50%.
(2) From the perspective of demand, the current cement demand is significantly weaker than the marginal growth of 13. The growth rate of cement production is lower than other years except 15 years. Among them, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in 17 years is the lowest level in the past five years, which is close to the level of 16 years, but lower than 12-15 years; the growth rate of real estate investment in 17 years is higher than 15 years and 16 years, but lower than 12- The 14-year level; 17 years of infrastructure investment growth rate is only higher than the 12-year level, less than 13 years - 16 years.
(3) From the supply point of view, this year's supply contraction strength or super market expectations will become the core factor for this year's peak season price increase. On the one hand, from the off-season tracking, many areas in the north have been suspended in the off-season. In some areas and even in two rounds, the location is well controlled. On the other hand, 2+26 cities have been upgraded to other parts of the north. Luyu) plans to stop the kiln in the peak season, stop the production of cement in the key cities (grinding station), and the rectification of the upstream limestone mine will also make the supply of clinker in the second half of the year very tight, which is conducive to the push of cement prices, so we expect The power of supply and contraction in this round of peak season cannot be ignored, and will become the most important force for the rise in cement prices.
Recommendation: The first push of Conch Cement in East China, and continue to be optimistic about the Qilian Mountain, where the demand is clear in the medium term, the bottom of the small cycle is rising, and the profit is already at a good level.
Refractory: The deterministic opportunity of revaluation + the game opportunity of price increase, the logic remains unchanged.
Resource revaluation: At present, it is estimated from multiple angles that the upstream supply shortage will remain for a long period of time, the price of upstream products will continue to rise, and this round of supply contraction has a strong administrative color, so the upward trend of product prices is a trend. Have resource revaluation values.
Game of price increase: In view of the continuous shortage of upstream supply and the continuous decline of product inventory, the cost of price increase of refractory enterprises is inevitable, and because of the relatively long refractory industry chain, the bullwhip effect is obvious, and the industry will be tightened due to long-term tightening of upstream supply. The out-of-stock steel mills are out of stock and will not happen, so the price elasticity of the products is worth further observation.
Recommended target: Yan Nai shares, Beijing Lier
Environmental protection: focus on coal to gas, pollution source management
The time for environmental protection inspectors was tight, and the intensity of filing punishment and detention accountability was unprecedented. At the same time, the environmental protection inspection team visited the grassroots level and directly reported the inspection results to the local government to form a strict and effective supervision mechanism.
Coal to gas: The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has strengthened its policy on adjusting the energy structure of the region. It has carried out a three-year policy subsidy, greatly improving the economics of gas use, and the cost performance exceeds that of coal. Can pay attention: Baichuan Energy, Dyson shares.
Pollution source control: With the fourth batch of the Central Environmental Protection Inspector Group fully rolled out, covering 31 provinces and cities across the country, and benefiting the listed companies that are polluted by sources, environmental monitoring as the means of environmental governance and evaluation criteria is the primary benefit of pollution source management. In the future, atmospheric monitoring and water quality monitoring have a process of heavy volume, which is mainly beneficial to the target: Xianhe Environmental Protection and Science and Engineering.
Keep abreast of market trends and industry-leading information. Please download the official website of Shanghai Non-ferrous Network. You can view the [Live] newsletter in the [Information] section. More exclusive data and exclusive news are essential weapons for you to join the metal market.
Metal House,Prefab Metal Frame House,Prefab Metal House,Metal Frame House
Foshan Shengbang Steel Structure Co.,Ltd , https://www.sbsstructure.com