Abstract On July 31, Xiang Songyu, deputy director of the Institute of International Monetary Research at Renmin University of China, was invited to participate in the Symposium and delivered a keynote speech. What is the biggest risk facing the Chinese economy? - Short-term, medium-term and long-term perspectives. This event...
On July 31, Xiang Songzhen, deputy director of the Institute of International Monetary Research at Renmin University of China, was invited to participate in the Symposium and delivered a keynote speech. What is the biggest risk facing the Chinese economy? - Short-term, medium-term and long-term perspectives. The event was hosted by China Investment Association, Jiangsu Provincial Economic and Trade Commission, Xinhuanet, Jiangsu Financial Industry Federation, Xinhuanet Si Ke, Nanjing Hexi Central Business District Management Committee, Wu Xiaobo Channel, Value Line magazine, Xinhua Network Jiangsu Channel hosted. The following is a record of the speech: The biggest difficulties and risks of China's economic transformation can be briefly analyzed from the three perspectives of short-term, medium-term and long-term.
In the short run, it is a variety of risks caused by high leverage and high debt.
De-leveraging, destocking, and capacity-taking are among the most pressing issues facing China’s economic problems today.
At the same time of high leverage, what we see is the bank's balance sheet brought about by the company's high debt. Now the bank's non-performing rate, the official data released reached 1.75%, and the private data may be higher than this.
High leverage and high debt have made many companies unable to reinvest and upgrade their industries.
How was this short-term problem caused? It is the malformation of the property rights structure and the malformation of the economic growth strategy, resulting in the malformation of the investment structure, the malformation of the credit structure, and the malformation or imbalance of the social cost structure.
This issue seems to be a short-term issue, but today it has actually become a long-term issue. At the same time, we can see that a large number of financial assets are growing rapidly, and who is creating revenue for these huge assets? Marx told us more than 100 years ago that financial assets themselves do not create any income. The dividends of corporate profits can only be created by the real economy. The scale of financial assets is getting bigger and bigger, and the real economy is shrinking. This is a very dangerous problem.
In the medium term, the growth rate of total factor productivity continues to slow down.
Total factor productivity can comprehensively measure the resource utilization efficiency of a country. There are many indirect indicators that can indicate the efficiency of social resource utilization.
First, industrial added value. The growth rate of industrial added value has declined rapidly in recent years. The growth rate in the first half of this year has dropped to less than 6%. Although industrial added value is not a direct manifestation of total factor labor productivity, it is a good indirect. The more important thing is that we are seeing a sharp decline in the growth rate of corporate profits.
Second, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size has fallen sharply. From January to June, the profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size was only 6.2%, and mainly from short-term factors. For example, the profits of the petroleum industry and the coking industry increased substantially, and the average level was raised. In fact, most of the industry profits did not appear. increase.
Third, the wage growth rate of workers has been curbed and even strongly interfered by local governments. Nowadays, the decline in total factor labor productivity, how can we achieve real growth, and how to get rid of the middle income trap is a fundamental problem.
The long-term fundamental difficulty is that the original scientific innovation is seriously insufficient.
First of all, China's manufacturing industry is still at the low end of the global industrial chain, and its competitiveness and profitability are still very poor. Most enterprises in China rely on cheap labor, environmental pollution, and resource consumption to work for developed countries, and the task of upgrading and upgrading industries is arduous.
Secondly, Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology once said that in the fourth-tier echelon of global manufacturing, China is in the third echelon and it will take time to become a strong country.
Third, and most importantly, China still lacks original ideas and scientific inventions that truly lead the world and the future of mankind, and original scientific ideas are the most important competitiveness.
And this competitiveness comes from universities and research institutions. This is the most important reform in the next step, and the most important change in the way of thinking.
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