Shipbuilding industry overcapacity, old wounds, recurrence, new ship orders dropped more than 70% this year

Abstract After the shipbuilding industry ushered in the “Xiaoyangchun” in 2013, the problem of overcapacity was “recurrence of old injuries” in 2015. Due to the previous production of too many ships, the new 7 months of 2015...
After the shipbuilding industry ushered in the "Xiaoyangchun" in 2013, the problem of overcapacity was "recurrence of old injuries" in 2015. Due to the previous production of too many ships, new ship orders in the first seven months of 2015 fell by more than 70% year-on-year.

In the process of the sharp decline in new ship orders, in the first half of 2015, many private ship companies in China were forced to declare bankruptcy and reorganization. At the same time, Haotian ships with the background of state-owned enterprises also lost money due to default by foreign shipowners. Face the crisis of delisting at any time.

Some insiders told reporters that the shipbuilding industry can only recover if the problem of overcapacity is completely solved.

Half of the shipbuilding industry listed companies lose money
The shipping industry and the shipbuilding industry, which are hard-won brothers, suffered from the cold winter in the first half of 2015. While the shipping market continued to be low, the recovery of the shipping market did not improve.

According to the statistics of the straight flush, as of August 30, among the eight listed companies in the shipbuilding industry, there are four companies including Shanghai Jiahao, Yaxing Anchor Chain, China Ship and China Heavy Industry, China Shipbuilding Defense, *ST Barge, Steel Construction project, Sunbird 4 companies loss. Among them, the *ST barge was starred in the first half of 2015 due to losses.

*ST Barge's 2015 Interim Report shows that during the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 1.027 billion yuan, down 51.25% year-on-year; total profit -380 million yuan, down 826.36% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed company -3.66 billion yuan , a year-on-year decline of 973.12%.

The company stated that at the end of the reporting period, the company's total assets were 8.426 billion yuan, down 10.37% compared with the beginning of the year; the total liabilities were 8.576 billion yuan, down 6.65% compared with the beginning of the year; the owner's equity attributable to the listed company's shareholders was -1.49 billion yuan. , a decrease of 170.04% compared with the beginning of the year.

For the reason for the sudden decline in performance, *ST Barge explained that due to the overcapacity of the shipbuilding industry, the company’s export vessels have been delayed in delivery and delivery, and the shipowners abandoned the ship. Case.

At the same time, *ST barge is no longer the intention to reorganize the bankruptcy of Mingde, and Mingde has entered bankruptcy. Affected by the above factors, the company faces a severe situation in terms of operations and capital.

Affected by the sharp decline in orders from shipbuilding companies, the steel structure of listed companies that provide steel structures and fittings for shipbuilding companies also suffered losses. The data shows that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of 2014 was -54,714,900 yuan; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of 2015 was -29,074,900 yuan.

In addition, China Shipbuilding Defense, which just completed the issuance of a 100% stake in Huangpu Wenchong in April 2015, also announced a loss in the first half of 2015. The company achieved a net profit of -52 million yuan attributable to shareholders of the parent company.

According to Gao Xiaochun of CITIC Construction, on April 6, 2015, the company completed the acquisition of 100% equity of Huangpu Wenchong, and its main business increased to military ships, military auxiliary ships, civilian ships and offshore workers. In the first half of the year, Huangpu Wenchong achieved a net profit of 247 million yuan, a substantial increase of 3.75 times year-on-year; among them, Wenchong Shipyard's net profit for the first half of the year was -109 million yuan, which means that the net profit of Huangpu's first half of the main military ship can be simply calculated as 356 million yuan. In the first half of the year, GSI (44.00, -0.58, -1.30%) lost 174 million yuan, Huangpu Wenchong's profit was 247 million yuan, and the combined loss was 525 million yuan. It is expected that the loss of Longxue Shipbuilding will be larger.

However, given the development of CSSC's defense business, the industry is more optimistic about the company's development prospects.

International market share fell for the first time
It can be seen from the report that the listed companies in the shipbuilding industry generally explain the loss and decline in performance. "In the first half of 2015, the world economic situation continued to falter in 2014, the volume of international trade shrank, and the international shipping and shipping market continued to slump."

According to industry insiders, although the current international new ship market is stimulated by the low oil prices, the volume of oil tankers has increased, and the orders for container ships have rebounded with the impact of the US economic recovery. However, BDI is still in a downturn, and bulk carriers are trading. The amount has dropped significantly. Affected by this, China's shipbuilding industry, which is mainly based on bulk carriers, has shrunk significantly in the first half of 2015.

According to the statistics of Clarkson Company of the United Kingdom, in the first half of this year, China’s new orders were only 7.56 million DWT, accounting for 20.5% of the world market share, ranking second in the world. According to the statistics of the China Shipbuilding Association, it is 11.19 million DWT, accounting for about the world. The market share of 27.6% has declined for the first time since the outbreak of the international financial crisis.

Statistics show that from January to July, the national shipbuilding completed 22.69 million deadweight tons, an increase of 9.8%. The new ship's orders were 14 million DWT, down 69.4% year-on-year. At the end of July, orders for hand-held ships were 136.7 million DWT, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%, down 8.5% from the end of 2014.

At the same time, from January to July, the country's completed export vessels reached 20.22 million DWT, up 11.6% year-on-year; the export ship orders were 11.9 million DWT, down 72.2% year-on-year; the end of July hand-held export orders were 129.87 million DWT, down 10.4% year-on-year. %.

According to the reporter's understanding, at present, most ship companies have a situation of "low price and difficult delivery", and due to the ship owner's order, the cancellation of the order has occurred.

Some insiders analyzed that due to the impact of the international crude oil price plunging, the shipowners' enthusiasm for the energy-saving and environmentally-friendly ships that were ordered in previous years was not high. The phenomenon of bulk carriers changing oil tank orders frequently occurred, modifying the ship contract and delaying delivery. Even the risk of withdrawing orders has gradually increased. According to public data, the industry delivered 18.53 million DWT in the first half of the year, which is 43% of the estimated 43 million DWT delivered at the end of 2014. It is difficult to complete the delivery task as planned throughout the year.

Overcapacity becomes a stumbling block in the industry
Some insiders predict that the global economic situation will be complicated in 2015. In the case of overcapacity in the shipping market and the contradiction between supply and demand has not been fundamentally resolved, the shipbuilding industry is still difficult to recover.

For this phenomenon, some insiders analyzed to reporters: "The main reason for the downturn in the shipbuilding industry is overcapacity. Even if the industry has experienced a recovery, it is only a short-lived one. As long as the overcapacity problem in the industry is not resolved, the industry will not be able to achieve real Recovery."

The industry generally believes that the overcapacity of the shipbuilding industry mostly refers to the low-end technology requirements of the ship, and the real high-end ships are actually in great demand.

In this regard, some insiders suggested that relevant parties should continue to increase support for the restructuring and upgrading of the industry structure. Investigate and support the development of green environmental protection, high-tech ship types, offshore equipment and ancillary equipment that meet the new conventions, new standards and new standards; reform the production process of enterprises and target high-tech ships, offshore engineering equipment and marine equipment. Professional capacity building, increase investment support; implement mergers and acquisitions in enterprises to provide policy and financial support in debt restructuring, personnel diversion, and asset integration, to help enterprises successfully survive the crisis and promote transformation and upgrading.

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