Research on the status quo of global photovoltaic industry

The winter seems to be passing away, and the photovoltaic spring is slowly coming. But not all PV companies are able to embrace this spring. After this round of industrial adjustment, only photovoltaic companies that can meet the requirements of the market in terms of brand, quality, technology, and cost will be able to stay behind. The coming spring of the photovoltaic industry is a threshold spring, and the era of disorderly growth will never return.

European traditional photovoltaic market (such as Germany, Italy) or adjusting the FIT policy, or limiting subsidies spending, the market will shrink in 2013, at the same time, the global trade war (Europe and Europe, etc.) will increase the price of photovoltaic systems, so that the photovoltaic market We wait and see mood, so we expect 2013 global PV installed capacity growth rate of 10-15%. However, the trade war has only slowed down growth, instead of stifling demand. Emerging countries such as China, Japan, and India have demonstrated their base effect in 2014. Therefore, we remain optimistic about the global PV market in 2014, and the growth rate is expected to recover to more than 25%.

According to the “Research Report on China's Photovoltaic Industry's Panoramic Survey and Investment Strategy for 2012-2016” published by China Research and Research Institute of Cape Verde, China’s exports of photovoltaic products in Europe and North America accounted for 73% of the total in 2011. The United States’ “double opposition” has been finalized. India also launched a “double counter” investigation. We expect that the EU preliminary anti-invasion ruling will be announced in the 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2013. It is more likely to be established and the cost/performance advantage of China’s battery components will no longer exist. At present, China's first-line cell module production capacity is approximately 20GW. Assuming that there is only 50% effective market in the world, the issue of overcapacity will be expanded, the industry consolidation speed will accelerate, and the battery module companies will usher in the most difficult period, and the bottom of the industry will appear.

Year-to-date, polysilicon prices have fallen the most, reaching 49%, and the prices of wafers, cells, and modules have dropped by about 30%. Overcapacity and flat growth in demand are the main reasons. In the short term, prices will continue to decline slightly, mainly due to the supply and demand relationship. At the same time, the profitability of the industry chain has reached the bottom. The destocking of first-tier companies has become more reasonable, and the possibility of a sharp fall is smaller; The increase in product efficiency and use of materials will inevitably bring about a reduction in costs. The future price reduction will be more from the cost side. Therefore, as long as the problem of overcapacity persists, there will always be downward pressure on the price and cost difference. Corporate earnings will remain at the bottom.

The United States "double opposition" is only for batteries, not including silicon chips. Although the EU anti-dumping investigation includes silicon wafers, domestic wafer companies can still export to third-country battery module companies in North America, Japan, and the Philippines, and are affected in the entire industry chain. The price of silicon materials in 2011 was about 50% lower than that of silicon wafers (about 30%). The market cost and price difference expanded to make the profitability of silicon wafers relatively strong in the industry chain. At the same time, with the non-silicon cost With continued decline, the profitability of wafers in 2013 is expected to remain relatively strong.

Unlike the PV crisis in 2008, the characteristics of this round of industrial adjustment have determined the future pattern of the PV industry. At that time, the unexpected international financial crisis caused a sharp drop in demand for photovoltaics in a short period of time, but demand remained at a fast-growing channel; prices dropped from high levels, but they still guaranteed corporate profits. With the global economy picking up, capital has once again flooded into the photovoltaic industry, opening up yet another round of overcapacity expansion.

According to the Sino-Prusesian Research Report on China's Photovoltaic Industry in 2012-2016, the current situation facing the industry is that the demand for the traditional photovoltaic market has entered a period of low growth. Although the momentum of the emerging market is strong, it faces enormous challenges. The production capacity appears to be a drop in the bucket; the decline in prices drives down the cost, and the current production cost of photovoltaic backbone components has reached 0.6 US$/W. It is expected to continue to be explored at the end of the year; under the pressure of falling prices, the efficiency of photovoltaic cells will increase rapidly. It is expected that the efficiency of photovoltaic cells will increase next year. The efficiency of a polysilicon module will reach 250 W or more for a 60-chip specification, and 270 W or more for a monocrystalline silicon.

Researcher Puhua Photovoltaic Industry Researcher pointed out that with the global PV demand is relatively stable, the current global PV production capacity has reached 40GW will enter a platform period. In the next 1 to 2 years, the industry will be in a state of controlling production capacity, and mergers and reorganizations and reshuffling will be difficult to avoid. The cost will remain at the current level and even continue to decline, and prices will hardly return to high levels. High-efficiency and low-cost products will become the darling of the market. The era of barbarous growth of the global photovoltaic industry will never return.

The new spring is a photovoltaic company with advanced productivity. Only with strong R&D and innovation capabilities can we keep up with the pace of technological innovation in the photovoltaic industry, always stand at the high end of the industry, and grab high profit margins; only by building a well-known brand can we stand out in the fierce competition and develop in the industry. When it comes to self-protection, it will gain a place in the future of mass consumption of solar energy; only by combining quality cost with scale effect, can it be possible to gain as much market share as possible; only with forward-thinking can it be unpredictable. In the emerging stage of the industry, we choose the right path, lay it out in advance, and firmly walk on.