According to a data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, every 1 million square meters of construction in the real estate industry will affect the employment of 300,000 people, reduce the demand for steel by 20,000 tons, reduce the demand for doors and windows by 80,000 sets, and reduce the demand for sanitary ware by 20,000 sets. .
Since the second half of 2011, real estate-related industries have been affected by real estate regulation.
In 2012, the new construction area of ​​real estate will show its first negative growth in the past decade. In the context of unclear real estate prospects, cement, construction, building materials, furniture and other related industries will be forced to adjust with the real estate market, most industries do not dare to expect growth.
on site
Guangzhou Nan'an Road Building Materials Market:
Business downturn, busy subletting
Since the beginning of the year, the spring is chilly and affected by the shrinking sales of new homes. The South China Road decoration market, the largest wholesale material for decorative materials in Guangzhou, is particularly deserted. The reporter's investigation found that the deterioration of the business environment caused many stall owners to start subletting stores.
The reporter visited and saw that some shops in the large-scale decoration market such as Nan'an Road “Dengyun Tianxia†have not yet opened to the public, and some of the shops that opened the door have played the banner of “discount promotionâ€, but these shops are still in the door.
In a shop, the reporter saw that the high-end bathtub sold here marked "price reduction of 1,000 yuan." The owner of the store said that the decoration market will generally be promoted to attract customers after the Spring Festival, but this year's business is particularly bleak. “Even if we do promotions, we don’t have many customers. And after the New Year’s market, the market rent is more than 10%, and the business is difficult to do,†the boss said with a sigh.
Many stall owners reflected that the building materials market has been very deserted since the beginning of this spring, so some shops have been postponed, and some stall owners have directly subletted.
The reporter saw that in the "Dengyun Tianxia" market, several shops posted notices of subletting. A shop owner told reporters that the store has an area of ​​about 30 square meters. The current monthly rent is 6,000 yuan. It is relatively cheap in the Nan'an Road area. However, the business is not good and many bosses want to sublet.
Big background
Real estate is expected to fall by 5% in 2012
"This year, the number of real estate starts in the country will definitely decline compared with previous years, mainly due to the impact of the growth rate of real estate investment and the rising stock of residential stocks." Xie Yifeng, president of the China Real Estate Economic Research Institute, said that especially the regulation and market Stability and financial constraints affect the speed at which developers can start.
According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2011, the newly started area of ​​real estate development enterprises totaled 1.901 billion square meters, up 16.2% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped by 7.5 percentage points from the previous three quarters, down 24.4 percentage points from the previous year, slightly lower than the recent The average increase in ten years.
"In 2012, the new construction area of ​​real estate development enterprises in the country will see the first negative growth in the past decade, and it is expected to fall by about 5% for the whole year." Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute judged.
“The main reasons are: first, the transaction area of ​​operating land has decreased in 2011; second, the funding problem has gradually become prominent. Some real estate development enterprises have no extra funds to maintain large-scale construction; third, the goal of building affordable housing in 2012 is more than 7 million sets. The amount of work is still large, but it has dropped by 30% compared with 2011.†Yang Hongxu, vice president of the hospital, said.
In fact, the impact of the reduction in the amount of construction on the upstream and downstream enterprises has emerged in 2011, and some related industries have experienced a reduction in the number of industries, such as steel demand and decoration. In the face of 2012, this adjustment trend will continue.
sector
Construction industry: the protection of housing into the main force, the current impact is not big
"This year is still relatively early. For now, I still can't see any influence." He Jiandong, a construction company in Guangzhou, told reporters. Last year, the group's growth reached more than 20%, maintaining the same rapid growth as the previous year. "Commodity houses are regulated, and there are security houses." He Suidong told reporters that last year they received a project to secure housing such as Longgui.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2011, the construction area of ​​real estate development enterprises totaled 5.08 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, and the growth rate was relatively high. From this point of view, the business volume of construction enterprises has not been greatly affected last year. .
However, with the fall of the new construction area of ​​real estate development enterprises this year, the impact on the construction industry is still unknown.
Steel industry: the price fell by 20%, the steel mill profit was lower than the bank interest rate
Although steel mills such as Baosteel have recently raised their ex-factory prices, the decline in steel prices is still quite noticeable compared to last year's highs.
“For example, in the Guangzhou market, the price of rebar fell from 5,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of last year to more than 4,200 yuan/ton, a drop of nearly 20%.†Yesterday, Dong Haosheng, deputy secretary-general of the Guangdong Iron and Steel Industry Association, told reporters that it was affected by the downturn in the property market and other reasons. At present, the construction steel market has already exceeded supply, and the loss of the steel industry has begun to expand. “Haogang lost more than 1.1 billion yuan last year, Angang expects losses of over 2.1 billion, and Baosteel’s profits plummeted by more than 40%.â€
Last year, the macro economy was uncertain and the property market was in a downturn, which caused the steel mills to expand rapidly. In particular, a sharp drop in steel prices from mid-September to late October last year caused steel mills and traders to lose money. The steel traders in the whole year were struggling, and the profit margin of steel mills also hit a new low in recent years. In October last year, Luo Bingsheng, deputy secretary of the China Steel Association Party Committee, said that the profitability of the steel industry was at the lowest level in history, and the profit margin of 77 large and medium-sized steel enterprises was only 0.47%, which was lower than the bank interest rate.
According to the latest data released by China Steel Association, among the 77 key large and medium-sized steel enterprises in 2011, 8 enterprises suffered losses, and the loss of loss-making enterprises was 3.28 billion yuan, and the loss amount nearly doubled.
Wu Yan, an analyst at Treasure Island Trading Platform, predicts that the growth rate of the auto industry will not be optimistic in 2012, while the home appliance industry will be under greater pressure after the exit policy, and the property market regulation will continue. These reasons will lead to medium and long-term demand for steel. The slowdown in growth is clear.
Building materials industry: the first half of this year will be the most difficult period
"Affected by real estate regulation, the situation of the entire building materials industry began to fall steadily from the second half of last year." Chen Huan, vice president of the Guangdong Building Materials Industry Association, told reporters yesterday. However, due to the launch of government infrastructure projects and affordable housing projects, some of the impacts were alleviated.
Relatively speaking, cement supply and demand are relatively balanced and less affected. But the main reason is that "the government has strictly controlled the new projects in the past two years."
The ceramic industry has a strong dependence on the real estate industry, and the response is relatively large. The entire ceramic industry grew by about 10% last year, and the export part increased by about 18%, and the domestic sales sector dragged its feet.
Relative to the cement and ceramics industry, the impact of the glass industry is even greater. In addition to real estate, it is also affected by the home and home appliance market, so the industry lost money last year.
Chen Huan said that the first half of this year will be the most difficult period for the building materials industry, and the industry will maintain its inertia. The second half of the year is still unclear and is expected to be better than the first half. However, Chen Huan stressed that the adjustment of the entire industry is not a reduction in absolute quantity, but only a slowdown in growth.
A person who has worked in building materials for many years said that the property market has been shrinking. In the long run, I am afraid that the building materials industry will struggle to live on the line of life and death, and even be dragged down.
Wang Zhihao, director of the research department of Standard Chartered Bank, told reporters that credit growth has recently come out of the trough. With the new investment projects, the building materials industry will gradually increase, and cement production and investment will increase moderately in the second quarter of 2012.
Furniture industry:
Shrinking began in the second half of last year
Under the influence of the downturn in the real estate market, the entire furniture decoration industry is estimated to have shrunk by 30%.
“There was already feeling in the second half of last year.†Jing Jing, a brand consultant of the furniture company Jinshang, said to reporters. The Jinshang Mingdian was established in 2000. In the years before the rapid development of real estate, it quickly expanded from a store to about 50 stores. However, in the first half of last year, the rapid expansion strategy was adjusted, and in the second half of the year, five stores were also compressed.
"Generally, the furniture industry is in the peak season before October and the Spring Festival, but last year there was no feeling at all." Zijing told reporters that its monthly sales fell by 25% year-on-year.
In the face of this year's real estate continued to regulate, Jinshang Mingdian has been psychologically prepared, and plans to adjust some marginal brands. "The first half of the year is definitely not acceptable. As long as it can reach the amount of last year, it will be good."
Since the second half of 2011, real estate-related industries have been affected by real estate regulation.
In 2012, the new construction area of ​​real estate will show its first negative growth in the past decade. In the context of unclear real estate prospects, cement, construction, building materials, furniture and other related industries will be forced to adjust with the real estate market, most industries do not dare to expect growth.
on site
Guangzhou Nan'an Road Building Materials Market:
Business downturn, busy subletting
Since the beginning of the year, the spring is chilly and affected by the shrinking sales of new homes. The South China Road decoration market, the largest wholesale material for decorative materials in Guangzhou, is particularly deserted. The reporter's investigation found that the deterioration of the business environment caused many stall owners to start subletting stores.
The reporter visited and saw that some shops in the large-scale decoration market such as Nan'an Road “Dengyun Tianxia†have not yet opened to the public, and some of the shops that opened the door have played the banner of “discount promotionâ€, but these shops are still in the door.
In a shop, the reporter saw that the high-end bathtub sold here marked "price reduction of 1,000 yuan." The owner of the store said that the decoration market will generally be promoted to attract customers after the Spring Festival, but this year's business is particularly bleak. “Even if we do promotions, we don’t have many customers. And after the New Year’s market, the market rent is more than 10%, and the business is difficult to do,†the boss said with a sigh.
Many stall owners reflected that the building materials market has been very deserted since the beginning of this spring, so some shops have been postponed, and some stall owners have directly subletted.
The reporter saw that in the "Dengyun Tianxia" market, several shops posted notices of subletting. A shop owner told reporters that the store has an area of ​​about 30 square meters. The current monthly rent is 6,000 yuan. It is relatively cheap in the Nan'an Road area. However, the business is not good and many bosses want to sublet.
Big background
Real estate is expected to fall by 5% in 2012
"This year, the number of real estate starts in the country will definitely decline compared with previous years, mainly due to the impact of the growth rate of real estate investment and the rising stock of residential stocks." Xie Yifeng, president of the China Real Estate Economic Research Institute, said that especially the regulation and market Stability and financial constraints affect the speed at which developers can start.
According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2011, the newly started area of ​​real estate development enterprises totaled 1.901 billion square meters, up 16.2% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped by 7.5 percentage points from the previous three quarters, down 24.4 percentage points from the previous year, slightly lower than the recent The average increase in ten years.
"In 2012, the new construction area of ​​real estate development enterprises in the country will see the first negative growth in the past decade, and it is expected to fall by about 5% for the whole year." Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute judged.
“The main reasons are: first, the transaction area of ​​operating land has decreased in 2011; second, the funding problem has gradually become prominent. Some real estate development enterprises have no extra funds to maintain large-scale construction; third, the goal of building affordable housing in 2012 is more than 7 million sets. The amount of work is still large, but it has dropped by 30% compared with 2011.†Yang Hongxu, vice president of the hospital, said.
In fact, the impact of the reduction in the amount of construction on the upstream and downstream enterprises has emerged in 2011, and some related industries have experienced a reduction in the number of industries, such as steel demand and decoration. In the face of 2012, this adjustment trend will continue.
sector
Construction industry: the protection of housing into the main force, the current impact is not big
"This year is still relatively early. For now, I still can't see any influence." He Jiandong, a construction company in Guangzhou, told reporters. Last year, the group's growth reached more than 20%, maintaining the same rapid growth as the previous year. "Commodity houses are regulated, and there are security houses." He Suidong told reporters that last year they received a project to secure housing such as Longgui.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2011, the construction area of ​​real estate development enterprises totaled 5.08 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, and the growth rate was relatively high. From this point of view, the business volume of construction enterprises has not been greatly affected last year. .
However, with the fall of the new construction area of ​​real estate development enterprises this year, the impact on the construction industry is still unknown.
Steel industry: the price fell by 20%, the steel mill profit was lower than the bank interest rate
Although steel mills such as Baosteel have recently raised their ex-factory prices, the decline in steel prices is still quite noticeable compared to last year's highs.
“For example, in the Guangzhou market, the price of rebar fell from 5,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of last year to more than 4,200 yuan/ton, a drop of nearly 20%.†Yesterday, Dong Haosheng, deputy secretary-general of the Guangdong Iron and Steel Industry Association, told reporters that it was affected by the downturn in the property market and other reasons. At present, the construction steel market has already exceeded supply, and the loss of the steel industry has begun to expand. “Haogang lost more than 1.1 billion yuan last year, Angang expects losses of over 2.1 billion, and Baosteel’s profits plummeted by more than 40%.â€
Last year, the macro economy was uncertain and the property market was in a downturn, which caused the steel mills to expand rapidly. In particular, a sharp drop in steel prices from mid-September to late October last year caused steel mills and traders to lose money. The steel traders in the whole year were struggling, and the profit margin of steel mills also hit a new low in recent years. In October last year, Luo Bingsheng, deputy secretary of the China Steel Association Party Committee, said that the profitability of the steel industry was at the lowest level in history, and the profit margin of 77 large and medium-sized steel enterprises was only 0.47%, which was lower than the bank interest rate.
According to the latest data released by China Steel Association, among the 77 key large and medium-sized steel enterprises in 2011, 8 enterprises suffered losses, and the loss of loss-making enterprises was 3.28 billion yuan, and the loss amount nearly doubled.
Wu Yan, an analyst at Treasure Island Trading Platform, predicts that the growth rate of the auto industry will not be optimistic in 2012, while the home appliance industry will be under greater pressure after the exit policy, and the property market regulation will continue. These reasons will lead to medium and long-term demand for steel. The slowdown in growth is clear.
Building materials industry: the first half of this year will be the most difficult period
"Affected by real estate regulation, the situation of the entire building materials industry began to fall steadily from the second half of last year." Chen Huan, vice president of the Guangdong Building Materials Industry Association, told reporters yesterday. However, due to the launch of government infrastructure projects and affordable housing projects, some of the impacts were alleviated.
Relatively speaking, cement supply and demand are relatively balanced and less affected. But the main reason is that "the government has strictly controlled the new projects in the past two years."
The ceramic industry has a strong dependence on the real estate industry, and the response is relatively large. The entire ceramic industry grew by about 10% last year, and the export part increased by about 18%, and the domestic sales sector dragged its feet.
Relative to the cement and ceramics industry, the impact of the glass industry is even greater. In addition to real estate, it is also affected by the home and home appliance market, so the industry lost money last year.
Chen Huan said that the first half of this year will be the most difficult period for the building materials industry, and the industry will maintain its inertia. The second half of the year is still unclear and is expected to be better than the first half. However, Chen Huan stressed that the adjustment of the entire industry is not a reduction in absolute quantity, but only a slowdown in growth.
A person who has worked in building materials for many years said that the property market has been shrinking. In the long run, I am afraid that the building materials industry will struggle to live on the line of life and death, and even be dragged down.
Wang Zhihao, director of the research department of Standard Chartered Bank, told reporters that credit growth has recently come out of the trough. With the new investment projects, the building materials industry will gradually increase, and cement production and investment will increase moderately in the second quarter of 2012.
Furniture industry:
Shrinking began in the second half of last year
Under the influence of the downturn in the real estate market, the entire furniture decoration industry is estimated to have shrunk by 30%.
“There was already feeling in the second half of last year.†Jing Jing, a brand consultant of the furniture company Jinshang, said to reporters. The Jinshang Mingdian was established in 2000. In the years before the rapid development of real estate, it quickly expanded from a store to about 50 stores. However, in the first half of last year, the rapid expansion strategy was adjusted, and in the second half of the year, five stores were also compressed.
"Generally, the furniture industry is in the peak season before October and the Spring Festival, but last year there was no feeling at all." Zijing told reporters that its monthly sales fell by 25% year-on-year.
In the face of this year's real estate continued to regulate, Jinshang Mingdian has been psychologically prepared, and plans to adjust some marginal brands. "The first half of the year is definitely not acceptable. As long as it can reach the amount of last year, it will be good."
SGP Film-Bulletproof
HUAKAI FENGSHI TECHNOLOGY (CHONGQING) CO., LTD. , https://www.cqhkpvb.com