Recently, reports of power shortages in some areas have been surging again. Compared with the "electricity shortage" in April and May of this year, everyone understands the reasons for the "electricity shortage" more and more consistently - all of which are caused by rising coal prices. They are neither power shortage nor coal shortage. Just because coal prices continued to rise, thermal power companies were "short of money." Although everyone has reached a consensus on the cause of the "electricity shortage", all parties still hold different views on the current "electricity shortage."
A friend of the media recently asked me: “Some people say that there is no more effective solution to the current power shortage than the coal-fired linkage mechanism?†For this question, the respondent's position is different, and different angles are bound to result in Different conclusions. In the case of power system insiders, they may be more inclined to call for coal-electricity linkages. This simply passes the burden on power companies and consumers, and it is easier to obtain government approval than directly asking the government for money. If it is from the perspective of pure market research, I certainly do not agree with the coal-electricity linkage. If we must give proper compensation to the interests of the thermal power industry, I support the government to adopt a subsidy method, which is more fair and reasonable for the majority of consumers. It is more conducive to the stable and healthy economic and social development.
Since the current "electricity shortage" is caused by the rise in coal prices and thermal power companies' "lack of money", the ultimate solution can only be "to give money" to compensate the interests of thermal power companies. Theoretically speaking, there should be three ways of compensation: First, coal prices, which is equal to the coal companies to use part of their profits to compensate thermal power companies; second is to increase the price, which is commonly referred to as coal-fired linkage, which is equal to the downstream The electricity companies and consumers took out a piece of income to compensate thermal power companies. Third, the third party granted subsidies to thermal power companies. The third party is of course the government, and the government provided a portion of the fiscal revenue subsidies to thermal power companies.
The first way is to reduce the price of coal, which is clearly not possible under current conditions. After the integration of resources, the coal industry’s market control has become stronger and stronger, the price of the right to speak more and more, and the characteristics of coal prices that are easy to rise and fall are becoming increasingly apparent. As long as the economy still maintains relatively stable and rapid growth, as long as the process of industrialization and urbanization is still advancing rapidly, as long as the production of high-energy-consuming products still maintains rapid growth, it is basically unlikely that coal prices will fall. Therefore, it is obviously impossible to use the first method to compensate the thermal power industry.
Compared with the first method, the feasibility of the latter two methods is very strong and relatively easy to implement. However, these two methods have essential differences. Compared with some people suggesting that coal-fired linkage be started, the author prefers the government to use subsidies to compensate thermal power interests.
As for why the author does not agree to start coal-fired linkage, the main reasons are as follows:
On the one hand, the start of coal-fired linkage will further increase inflation expectations and increase the upward pressure on prices of the entire society. According to the August macroeconomic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in August, consumer prices rose by 6.2% year-on-year. Although they fell 0.3% from July, they are still at a relatively high level, still far higher than the 4% that was set at the beginning of the year. Annual inflation management goals. According to the latest quarterly survey report issued by the Central Bank, residents' expectations for future price increases are still strong. The future price index is 74.8%, which is 2.6 percentage points higher than the previous quarter. The price adjustment will undoubtedly affect the whole body. After the increase in electricity prices, almost all the production costs of goods will rise to varying degrees. In the event that inflation expectations are already strong, the increase in electricity prices will undoubtedly further increase inflation expectations and increase overall pressure on prices.
On the other hand, the start of coal-electricity linkage may lead to a spiral of coal prices and electricity prices, which is not conducive to improving social distribution and will aggravate current social conflicts. As the control of the coal enterprise market continues to increase and the demand for coal and electricity is relatively strong, after the price of electricity is raised, the amount of electricity generated may also increase, which in turn will increase the demand for coal and cause the price of coal to rise again. After that, the price of electricity will be raised again. . In the end, the coal industry has become full, and the power industry will not suffer too much from its own interests by increasing the price of electricity. Ultimately, the interests will be damaged by downstream power companies and consumers, especially consumers. They are The ultimate bearer of all consumer product price increases. In fact, there is currently an imbalance in the distribution of profits between the two industries, coal and electricity. Through the rise in coal prices, some profits that should have been attributed to the thermal power industry were transferred to the hands of the coal industry. If the coal-fired electricity linkage is started, the result is that part of the benefits that should be part of the average consumer were eventually transferred to the coal industry through the spiralling coal prices and electricity prices, and the interests of the power industry are no longer compromised. This is obviously not conducive to the improvement of social distribution, and it is also detrimental to the steady and rapid development of the social economy. On the contrary, it may aggravate the current social conflicts.
In the market economy, one of the most important government roles is the referee. At present, there are serious imbalances in the distribution of interests between the two major coal and electricity industries. It is of course necessary for the government to make a ruling and to make appropriate compensation for the party whose interests have been damaged. In fact, apart from the coal industry, the government is also a beneficiary of the rise in coal prices. According to statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of this year, the government’s tax revenue from the power generation industry was only 42.77 billion yuan, an increase of only 12.64% year-on-year; and the total tax revenue from the coal mining and washing industry was 132.7 billion yuan. The year-on-year increase of 31.48% was 3.1 times that of the power generation industry. In fact, the total assets of the coal industry are still less than the power generation industry, which is only 79.9% of the latter. The government is able to obtain tax revenue several times that of the power generation industry from the coal industry, and tax revenue from the coal industry grows much faster than electricity generation. The industry is mainly because coal prices are rising. Therefore, we can say that the price of coal has risen and the price of electricity has not risen, so that some of the benefits that originally belonged to the power industry were transferred to the coal industry. After that, part of this interest was transferred to the government through taxation. As a referee of the market, it is also reasonable for the government to show that some of the benefits originally belonged to the power industry are returned to the power industry through subsidies.
One of the greatest benefits of government subsidies is the ability to stop rising prices from continuing downward. This will help maintain the basic level of general price stability, help protect the interests of ordinary consumers from losses, and help the national economy continue to maintain stable and rapid development.
Overall, the author believes that coal-fired linkage is not necessarily the best way to solve the current power shortage, the government should use financial subsidies to properly compensate the interests of thermal power companies.
A friend of the media recently asked me: “Some people say that there is no more effective solution to the current power shortage than the coal-fired linkage mechanism?†For this question, the respondent's position is different, and different angles are bound to result in Different conclusions. In the case of power system insiders, they may be more inclined to call for coal-electricity linkages. This simply passes the burden on power companies and consumers, and it is easier to obtain government approval than directly asking the government for money. If it is from the perspective of pure market research, I certainly do not agree with the coal-electricity linkage. If we must give proper compensation to the interests of the thermal power industry, I support the government to adopt a subsidy method, which is more fair and reasonable for the majority of consumers. It is more conducive to the stable and healthy economic and social development.
Since the current "electricity shortage" is caused by the rise in coal prices and thermal power companies' "lack of money", the ultimate solution can only be "to give money" to compensate the interests of thermal power companies. Theoretically speaking, there should be three ways of compensation: First, coal prices, which is equal to the coal companies to use part of their profits to compensate thermal power companies; second is to increase the price, which is commonly referred to as coal-fired linkage, which is equal to the downstream The electricity companies and consumers took out a piece of income to compensate thermal power companies. Third, the third party granted subsidies to thermal power companies. The third party is of course the government, and the government provided a portion of the fiscal revenue subsidies to thermal power companies.
The first way is to reduce the price of coal, which is clearly not possible under current conditions. After the integration of resources, the coal industry’s market control has become stronger and stronger, the price of the right to speak more and more, and the characteristics of coal prices that are easy to rise and fall are becoming increasingly apparent. As long as the economy still maintains relatively stable and rapid growth, as long as the process of industrialization and urbanization is still advancing rapidly, as long as the production of high-energy-consuming products still maintains rapid growth, it is basically unlikely that coal prices will fall. Therefore, it is obviously impossible to use the first method to compensate the thermal power industry.
Compared with the first method, the feasibility of the latter two methods is very strong and relatively easy to implement. However, these two methods have essential differences. Compared with some people suggesting that coal-fired linkage be started, the author prefers the government to use subsidies to compensate thermal power interests.
As for why the author does not agree to start coal-fired linkage, the main reasons are as follows:
On the one hand, the start of coal-fired linkage will further increase inflation expectations and increase the upward pressure on prices of the entire society. According to the August macroeconomic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in August, consumer prices rose by 6.2% year-on-year. Although they fell 0.3% from July, they are still at a relatively high level, still far higher than the 4% that was set at the beginning of the year. Annual inflation management goals. According to the latest quarterly survey report issued by the Central Bank, residents' expectations for future price increases are still strong. The future price index is 74.8%, which is 2.6 percentage points higher than the previous quarter. The price adjustment will undoubtedly affect the whole body. After the increase in electricity prices, almost all the production costs of goods will rise to varying degrees. In the event that inflation expectations are already strong, the increase in electricity prices will undoubtedly further increase inflation expectations and increase overall pressure on prices.
On the other hand, the start of coal-electricity linkage may lead to a spiral of coal prices and electricity prices, which is not conducive to improving social distribution and will aggravate current social conflicts. As the control of the coal enterprise market continues to increase and the demand for coal and electricity is relatively strong, after the price of electricity is raised, the amount of electricity generated may also increase, which in turn will increase the demand for coal and cause the price of coal to rise again. After that, the price of electricity will be raised again. . In the end, the coal industry has become full, and the power industry will not suffer too much from its own interests by increasing the price of electricity. Ultimately, the interests will be damaged by downstream power companies and consumers, especially consumers. They are The ultimate bearer of all consumer product price increases. In fact, there is currently an imbalance in the distribution of profits between the two industries, coal and electricity. Through the rise in coal prices, some profits that should have been attributed to the thermal power industry were transferred to the hands of the coal industry. If the coal-fired electricity linkage is started, the result is that part of the benefits that should be part of the average consumer were eventually transferred to the coal industry through the spiralling coal prices and electricity prices, and the interests of the power industry are no longer compromised. This is obviously not conducive to the improvement of social distribution, and it is also detrimental to the steady and rapid development of the social economy. On the contrary, it may aggravate the current social conflicts.
In the market economy, one of the most important government roles is the referee. At present, there are serious imbalances in the distribution of interests between the two major coal and electricity industries. It is of course necessary for the government to make a ruling and to make appropriate compensation for the party whose interests have been damaged. In fact, apart from the coal industry, the government is also a beneficiary of the rise in coal prices. According to statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of this year, the government’s tax revenue from the power generation industry was only 42.77 billion yuan, an increase of only 12.64% year-on-year; and the total tax revenue from the coal mining and washing industry was 132.7 billion yuan. The year-on-year increase of 31.48% was 3.1 times that of the power generation industry. In fact, the total assets of the coal industry are still less than the power generation industry, which is only 79.9% of the latter. The government is able to obtain tax revenue several times that of the power generation industry from the coal industry, and tax revenue from the coal industry grows much faster than electricity generation. The industry is mainly because coal prices are rising. Therefore, we can say that the price of coal has risen and the price of electricity has not risen, so that some of the benefits that originally belonged to the power industry were transferred to the coal industry. After that, part of this interest was transferred to the government through taxation. As a referee of the market, it is also reasonable for the government to show that some of the benefits originally belonged to the power industry are returned to the power industry through subsidies.
One of the greatest benefits of government subsidies is the ability to stop rising prices from continuing downward. This will help maintain the basic level of general price stability, help protect the interests of ordinary consumers from losses, and help the national economy continue to maintain stable and rapid development.
Overall, the author believes that coal-fired linkage is not necessarily the best way to solve the current power shortage, the government should use financial subsidies to properly compensate the interests of thermal power companies.
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