Along with the wave of subsidies in the new energy industry, it is hard to think of the photovoltaic industry ten years ago.
As a result, many friends have come up with a question, is that the new energy industry will be like the photovoltaic industry, and the market will eventually stay in the market?
The similarities between the new energy industry and the photovoltaic industry
Why is this question?
Because in some ways, the new energy vehicle and the photovoltaic industry are somewhat similar:
1. New energy vehicles and photovoltaic industry are the same as the development direction under the global traditional energy crisis. However, the short-term cost problem can not be solved, there is no profit space, industry and capital are rarely involved, and industrial development is slow. In order to promote the rapid development of the industry, the government provides a large number of financial subsidies and tax incentives for these two industries.
For example, in 2009, the cost of photovoltaics was several times higher than traditional power generation technologies such as wind power and thermal power. Therefore, the state began to give financial subsidies to the photovoltaic industry to promote industrial development. For distributed PV projects, the initial investment subsidies were basically in 2012 and before, and the electricity subsidies were implemented after 2013. For large-scale ground power projects, the subsidy form of benchmark on-grid tariffs was basically adopted, but the electricity price standards were different in different periods; In 2010, the use of concession bidding was conducted to check the on-grid price. In recent years, subsidies have achieved initial results, and the cost of photovoltaic power generation has dropped from $350/MWh in 2009 to $100/MWh.
Today, the government has begun to subsidize the new energy vehicle industry in the same way.
According to the data, since 2013, the government has greatly subsidized the new energy automobile industry and attracted a large amount of social capital into the new energy industry. The direct result is to promote the rapid decline of the core battery cost and the highest cost of new energy vehicles. The price of the battery system has been reduced from 3.5 yuan/Wh before 2012 to 1.3 yuan/Wh.
2. Driven by short-term interests, some short-sighted enterprises have experienced loopholes in drilling subsidies and defrauded state subsidies.
In the Golden Sun Project implemented by the country of photovoltaics, in 2012, 348 project units were squeezed and misappropriated, and falsely reported funds of 1.617 billion yuan. From Xiangxi Lantian Company, it is suspected of defrauding 266 million yuan of subsidy funds, to Hanergy Photovoltaic, and then to the so-called photovoltaic poverty alleviation, defrauding the state subsidies countless.
New energy vehicles under the same subsidy also exposed the side of defrauding state subsidies. The Ministry of Finance announced that Jim West, Jinlong, Wuzhoulong, Wanda Guizhou and Henan Shaolin buses involved fraudulent compensation of about 1.2 billion yuan. However, this is only the tip of the iceberg. According to statistics, 72 of the 93 new energy car companies surveyed in 2015 have fraudulent compensation, and 76,374 vehicles have been deceived, involving a total amount of 9.376 billion yuan. Ten thousand yuan.
New energy vehicles lie to some car companies
3. In the context of the gradual reduction of state subsidies, the photovoltaic industry has been horrible, and today's new energy vehicle industry is also shivering.
In the context of the country's thorough investigation of fraudulent incidents, the government's subsidies have been declining year by year, leading to a sharp decline in the industry's lack of technological innovation, strategic positioning errors, and over-reliance on subsidies. The ultra-expected strict PV policy adjustment has brought the photovoltaic industry to a terrible situation. The new energy vehicles that also benefit from the state subsidy seem to be shaking, and people can't help but ask, is the new energy industry coming to the winter?
Faced with the huge baby in the photovoltaic industry, the country has been undermined. For example, after the PV 531 New Deal was issued, the photovoltaic industry collectively thundered. Monocrystalline silicon leading Longji shares, inverter led the Sunshine Power, Tongwei shares, Lin Yang Energy, the entire industry chain corporate performance collectively encountered Waterloo.
So, what about the outcome of today’s new energy vehicles?
What is the outcome of the new energy auto industry after subsidizing the fever?
Will the new energy auto industry today follow the footsteps of the photovoltaic industry?
This is worth discussing.
Of course, first of all, what is certain is that under the temptation of subsidies, based on the huge profit space under subsidies and the bright future development prospects, a large amount of capital is poured in. The new energy automobile industry has the same capacity as the photovoltaic industry of the year. A serious phenomenon.
For the photovoltaic industry, from the perspective of the most severe overcapacity in 2011, the global supply of photovoltaics at that time was 70GW, but the demand was only 27.5GW, and the production capacity was seriously overcapacity.
For the power battery industry. In 2014, the production capacity was insufficient; in 2015, the production capacity began to be excessive, and the capacity utilization rate was about 50%; in 2018, the capacity utilization rate was less than 30%.
As a result, the country’s policy in 2018 began to adjust. In 2018, subsidies for new energy vehicles began to decrease sharply. According to the data, the state’s subsidies for new energy vehicles have even decreased to 40%, led by BYD, Yutong Bus and Zhongtong Bus. The new energy automobile companies all experienced a decline in performance, and the net profit of Foton Motor, Haima Automobile and Ankai Automobile was a cliff-like decline. At the same time, the Waterma Capital Chain is broken and it takes hundreds of millions of dollars to resume normal operations.
However, what is certain is that the outcome of new energy vehicles will be different in the photovoltaic industry.
For example, if we carefully analyze the difference in subsidies, we can find that the reduction of subsidies for new energy vehicles by the state is mainly for new energy vehicles with a cruising range of less than 500 kilometers. It is forcing the industry to develop high-quality new energy vehicles, subsidies. From "GSP" to focus on research and development, focusing on structural adjustment.
The policy of the photovoltaic industry is to rectify the chaos in the industry.
"The maximum conversion rate of photovoltaics is only 29%, the current level is 18%-20%, and the technical barriers are low. If it is to develop in high quality, photovoltaic panels will use silicon materials instead of gallium arsenide, but it is a pity. Gallium arsenide is toxic, and the probability of adoption is small. Therefore, the current PV bottleneck is relatively large." A person familiar with the matter told GPLP.
Second, the business model of new energy vehicles is completely different from that of photovoltaics.
Photovoltaic is completely B2B business, or B2G business, customer group is relatively single, customer demand tends to be consistent, and it is very sensitive to cost;
New energy vehicles are not. New energy vehicles are mostly B2C business models. Their product lines are very rich. According to the power consumption, they can be divided into light-mixing, plug-in hybrid, pure electric, etc.; they can be divided into passenger cars according to their purposes. Commercial vehicles and buses; according to the model can also be subdivided into A, B, C and so on. Different products can meet the consumption needs of different groups of people. Some of these are government-driven, while others are completely market-driven, such as Tesla's high-end coupe, hybrid Toyota Prius, and the main micro-electric Bean. At the same time, in some specific application scenarios, for example, in rural areas, far away from gas stations, fuel vehicles are not used, and each household has a yard to facilitate charging, and new energy vehicles have advantages. It can also be seen from this part that the new energy vehicle industry is not entirely dependent on subsidies.
In terms of national strategic significance. As a kind of new energy, photovoltaic has many alternatives, including hydropower, wind power, biomass, nuclear energy, etc., which has little strategic significance; however, the automobile industry has a great impact on China. China is the world's largest automobile producer and consumer, but it is still subject to people's core technologies such as engines. Therefore, China needs to use new energy vehicles to achieve cornering overtaking. At the same time, new energy vehicles can also regulate China's energy structure. Therefore, the Chinese government's development of new energy is a national strategy and will receive more policy support. It can also be seen from this change in subsidies that the new energy vehicles will shift from the “GSP†to the “R&D systemâ€. Before ensuring the healthy development of the industry, the state's support will not stop. Therefore, after the subsidies have completely fallen back, there will be ways to avoid taxation, open road rights and license plate rights, and local government subsidized production enterprises to protect the new energy automobile industry.
Thirdly, in terms of economy, although PV has been developed for more than 20 years, it still relies on subsidies and double-integration policies with firepower. At present, in addition to subsidies, the new energy automobile industry also has a double-point policy. The double point policy will replace government subsidies as the main driver of the new energy vehicle market. According to the double point policy 2019 and 2020, the new energy vehicle integral ratio requirements of domestic and imported vehicle companies are 10% and 12% respectively, and those who fail to meet the target will be severely punished. This will promote the development of new energy vehicles by car companies and significantly increase the production and sales of new energy vehicles. The photovoltaic industry has been somewhat powerless after the introduction of strict subsidy policies.
Power generation and other competitions are still at a disadvantage; in contrast, the cost of new energy vehicles is rapidly declining year by year, and is approaching the level of fuel vehicles: Bloomberg predicts that new energy passenger vehicles will achieve fuel vehicle price parity in 2024. On November 2, 2017, the consulting company BCG released a report entitled "The Turning Point of Electric Vehicles". Between 2020 and 2021, the total cost of BEV will be lower than all power types, including HEV. In the road map designated by the Chinese government, it is pointed out that in 2020, the balance between new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles will be balanced. Even if no subsidies are given, new energy vehicles will also be competitive in the market.
In terms of actual results, new energy vehicles have achieved rapid growth every year, and unicorn companies such as Tesla and Ningde era have emerged, and their business models have been verified. At the same time, various countries and regions have withdrawn from the timetable for the ban on fuel vehicles. In 2019, the city will popularize new energy taxis. Hainan plans to use new energy vehicles throughout the island by 2030.
In addition, there are huge differences between the two in terms of industrial chain depth and consumer psychology. Therefore, compared with the local feathers of the photovoltaic industry, although the industrial retreat will bring some pressure to the industry, however, if the enterprise goes against the trend, the development prospect of the new energy auto industry can be expected.
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