The consolidation of the polysilicon industry is unprecedentedly hot.
For Fan Li, who has invested more than four years in the polysilicon industry, such consolidation is also expected. "Over the past few years, there have been too many disputes about the polysilicon industry. All these years we feel like we are sitting on a roller coaster. The market and price fluctuations are always frightening. The country will soon issue policies to standardize the market and we estimate it."
On March 1, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology formally issued the "Polysilicon Industry Access Requirements" (hereinafter referred to as "Entry Conditions"), and it will be implemented as of the date of release. According to the notice of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the relevant departments must take the access conditions as the basis for the approval of polysilicon construction projects, record management, land approval, environmental impact assessment, credit **, production license, and product quality certification.
From the PV industry once "supported the world," to the polysilicon industry has a serious overcapacity, suffered financial tsunami prices, 2011 polysilicon industry or under the state's macro-control gradually end the situation of jungle melee.
The reorganization of the industry order is certainly not good news for Fan Li and many small businesses that are “gold rushing†in the polysilicon industry.
According to the “Entry Conditions†issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the minimum capital ratio of investment in newly-built and expanded polysilicon projects shall not be less than 30%; no polysilicon projects shall be built within 1,000 meters of the surrounding areas with high environmental requirements; a new directory for the approval of government investment projects shall be issued. Previously, the new polysilicon project was no longer approved in principle; the solar-grade polysilicon project has a scale of more than 3,000 tons per year; the solar-grade polysilicon reduction power consumption is less than 80 kWh/kg. In addition, the access conditions also stipulate that by the end of 2011, the reduction power consumption of solar grade polysilicon must be less than 60 kwh/kg, and the solar grade polysilicon production line with an integrated power consumption greater than 200 kwh/kg will be eliminated.
“In this industry, only a few are large, and 80% of the polysilicon manufacturers are small companies, most of which are ignorant of the explosive situation in the photovoltaic industry in recent years and have invested heavily in this area. The production capacity is generally around the scale of 100 tons. Compared with this access condition, there is basically no way to meet the requirements in terms of scale and energy consumption,†said an industry insider who declined to be named.
According to incomplete statistics, there are currently 370 photovoltaic companies in 29 provinces and municipalities in China, of which more than 80 are polysilicon enterprises. People concerned pointed out that domestic polysilicon production does not have uniform energy consumption, land occupation, and environmental protection standards. Most polysilicon companies still have difficulty contending with foreign companies in terms of cost and quality, and about 80% of polysilicon production companies can hardly get rid of misfortunes that have been eliminated. .
“But in the short term, access conditions still give small businesses a buffer period, and it is unlikely that they will withdraw from the market and transfer their products in a concentrated manner.†What kind of effect will the “access conditions†have on the polysilicon industry? An interview with reporters said that the implementation of this condition will be beneficial to the healthy development of China's polysilicon industry in the long run, and it will also have important significance for eliminating backward production capacity and reducing the overall production cost of polysilicon, which will benefit the sustainable development of the entire solar industry. More importantly, with the improvement of access thresholds, the future expansion of polysilicon will be concentrated on several existing companies with certain technological advantages and scale advantages. Pressure on the supply side will be the driving force for the continued rise of polysilicon prices in the short term.
Li Shengmao, a senior researcher at China Investment Consulting Group, believes that “Entry conditions†will increase the industry entry threshold by quantifying the energy consumption index value, environmental protection index value, and production index value of the working enterprises in the polysilicon industry, and will try to “first buy and then buy The "tickets" of enterprises are kept out of the door, which helps to build superior enterprises to become bigger and stronger. “Some small and medium-sized enterprises with relatively poor production technology lack both technology and capital, so their best way out is to accept mergers and reorganizations of large companies or introduce strategic investors to raise their own capacity.â€
The rapid expansion of production capacity in the middle and upper reaches of the enterprise When it comes to the ever-changing domestic polysilicon market, the photovoltaic industry naturally has to book a book. In the long run, the growth of the photovoltaic market is a long-term trend, and the parity of photovoltaic power generation will continue to improve. In 2006, the global PV installation capacity was 1.8Gw, and in 2010, it was 15Gw to 16Gw, which was an increase of about 8 times. According to industry forecasts, the global installed capacity of PV will be 35Gw by 2015, and the annual increase in PV installations in the next 5 years is estimated to be 20% to 25%.
The reporter was informed that since the European countries successively introduced the PV subsidy reduction policy last year, the market once worried about the 2011 PV market demand. However, the actual situation is that after Germany and other countries introduced the PV subsidy reduction policy, the PV demand did not show a significant decline, and the negative impact of PV subsidy reduction was lower than market expectations.
After the Japanese earthquake caused the suspension of production of Japan's major photovoltaic companies, it is expected to have a positive impact on China's PV product exports. According to industry sources, 60% to 70% of the current PV market in Europe is the share of Chinese companies, and the rest is occupied by Japanese companies. This earthquake will further increase the share of Chinese companies in overseas markets.
On the one hand, the threshold for the industry will increase, and the number of employees will be significantly reduced. On the other hand, prospects for the development of the photovoltaic industry at home and abroad are expected to expire. The reason for this has led to a rise in polysilicon prices this year. At present, the domestic polysilicon price has exceeded 110 US dollars / kg, compared with the end of last year has nearly 100% increase. Hou Wentao, a senior analyst at Xiangcai Securities in China, said that polysilicon demand is expected to grow at a rate of 30% a year, which will lead to a continued rise in the price of polysilicon.
After the introduction of the policy, small businesses are adopting a wait-and-see attitude toward the market. Several major polysilicon giants are stepping up their expansion of the production line. Due to the relatively short time required for project expansion, it will become necessary to expand profits before the market demand has become clear and weak. General consensus.
In June 2010, Suntech announced high-profile production expansion plan, and its planned production capacity of 2.68 billion yuan to expand production of 1G watts almost doubled; subsequently, Yingli announced the expansion of 400 megawatts of production capacity.
In January 2011, LDK acquired SPI Systems of the United States. The company will complete the spin-off this year and complete the listing of the silicon materials and chemicals business in Hong Kong. At present, LDK Polysilicon production line is 15,000 tons, a total investment of 10 billion yuan, of which 20% of the investment is for recycling systems.
A month later, GCL-Poly also announced that it will invest a further HK$17.7 billion, and will increase its polysilicon production capacity from the current 21,000 tons to 25,000 tons by the end of this year, and plans to achieve a capacity of 65,000 tons by the middle of next year.
At the same time, the correspondent was informed that on March 30th, Daquan Group's “Daquan Photovoltaic Industrial Park†started construction in Shihezi City, Xinjiang, and Daquan Group planned to build an annual output of 20,000 tons of polysilicon in the Chemical New Material Industrial Park in Shihezi Development Zone. , 1000 MW silicon wafer, 500 MW battery factory, further enlarge and strengthen its photovoltaic industry.
“At present, the spot market for polysilicon is seriously out of stock, and it is common for small and medium-sized downstream manufacturers to rush to buy goods. Therefore, by taking advantage of this opportunity, some mid-to-upper-stream companies will open up the industrial chain and ease the impact of raw material shortages on the future development of the enterprise before the access conditions are further implemented. The influence is also reasonable." An industry expert commented.
Overcapacity "prelude"?
According to statistics from the Energy Development Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, the demand for polysilicon in China needs to be imported at 97% in 2006, and the annual self-sufficiency rate will increase year after year. In 2009 and 2010, the self-sufficiency ratio will be maintained at 50%. Although the current self-sufficiency rate is not high, but in accordance with the current domestic polysilicon manufacturers to implement the expansion plan, and photovoltaic cell production speed comparison, it is expected that within 2 to 3 years, the domestic polysilicon can be completely self-sufficient.
“Most of the domestic polysilicon production capacity will begin to release in the second half of 2011. Despite the market is still in short supply, but with the overcapacity and end demand in the middle and lower reaches of the market, many listed companies involved in polysilicon are also afraid of obtaining an ideal return.†Photovoltaic professionals believe that the release of production capacity needs to be synchronized with the demand of terminals. Once dislocation occurs, companies will face greater risks.
At present, there are two development strategies in the photovoltaic industry: one is the integration and integration strategy of the industrial chain; the other is to focus on a single or a few production processes, expand the production scale, and provide production efficiency strategies.
Industry experts pointed out that vertical integration and integration of the industrial chain is to coordinate the structure of the upstream and downstream industry chains, thereby shortening the time required to complete the production of the entire product. However, vertical integration and integration can hardly guarantee that there is technology or scale at each production stage. The advantages, thereby forming a full industry chain competitive advantage.
In this regard, experts reminded that companies need to focus on risk control at this stage, strengthen technological innovation, improve product quality is the fundamental to achieve sustainable development of the company. At present, most domestic first-line manufacturers mainly produce polysilicon batteries, and the number of manufacturers involved in the film industry is small. Guowei Junan analyst Zhang Wei commented that the most promising technology is currently thin-film solar cell technology. The first reason is that the space for the development of its battery efficiency is the largest in thin-film batteries. Second, the production technology of CIGSSe thin-film batteries has gradually matured, the number of manufacturing enterprises has been increasing, and the cost has been further reduced in the future.
The "2011 Photovoltaic Industry Development Report of China" pointed out that the breakthrough of the seven key technologies in the photovoltaic industry will change the development process and competitive landscape of the entire photovoltaic industry. Among them, the breakthrough in thin film technology will enable the market share of thin film batteries to expand in the future; the installation and supporting device market will show great opportunities for growth both in the international and domestic markets; the photovoltaic equipment industry is shifting to China and there are plenty of opportunities for expansion; Inadequate supply of auxiliary materials and equipment will become investment hotspots in the future; more comprehensive factors such as product availability will become an important competitive factor in the future photovoltaic market; the addition of certain strong competitors will change the competitive landscape of the future photovoltaic market. New disruptive technologies may change the process of industrial development and the competitive landscape.
"To get rid of the current situation of low-end competition, we must take the route of refinement and slow expansion to ensure competitiveness in the international market." Experts said, "The domestic photovoltaic companies should promote the main direction of high-tech industrialization, clearly through the development of key films. Solar cells, support for the development of high-efficiency crystalline silicon solar cells, breakthrough in the development of core equipment for thin-film solar cells, upgrading of technological and industrial energy levels, and improvement of product quality; optimization of industrial layout, promotion of industrial cluster development, and ultimately achieving the sustainable development of polysilicon and photovoltaic industry road."
For Fan Li, who has invested more than four years in the polysilicon industry, such consolidation is also expected. "Over the past few years, there have been too many disputes about the polysilicon industry. All these years we feel like we are sitting on a roller coaster. The market and price fluctuations are always frightening. The country will soon issue policies to standardize the market and we estimate it."
On March 1, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology formally issued the "Polysilicon Industry Access Requirements" (hereinafter referred to as "Entry Conditions"), and it will be implemented as of the date of release. According to the notice of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the relevant departments must take the access conditions as the basis for the approval of polysilicon construction projects, record management, land approval, environmental impact assessment, credit **, production license, and product quality certification.
From the PV industry once "supported the world," to the polysilicon industry has a serious overcapacity, suffered financial tsunami prices, 2011 polysilicon industry or under the state's macro-control gradually end the situation of jungle melee.
The reorganization of the industry order is certainly not good news for Fan Li and many small businesses that are “gold rushing†in the polysilicon industry.
According to the “Entry Conditions†issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the minimum capital ratio of investment in newly-built and expanded polysilicon projects shall not be less than 30%; no polysilicon projects shall be built within 1,000 meters of the surrounding areas with high environmental requirements; a new directory for the approval of government investment projects shall be issued. Previously, the new polysilicon project was no longer approved in principle; the solar-grade polysilicon project has a scale of more than 3,000 tons per year; the solar-grade polysilicon reduction power consumption is less than 80 kWh/kg. In addition, the access conditions also stipulate that by the end of 2011, the reduction power consumption of solar grade polysilicon must be less than 60 kwh/kg, and the solar grade polysilicon production line with an integrated power consumption greater than 200 kwh/kg will be eliminated.
“In this industry, only a few are large, and 80% of the polysilicon manufacturers are small companies, most of which are ignorant of the explosive situation in the photovoltaic industry in recent years and have invested heavily in this area. The production capacity is generally around the scale of 100 tons. Compared with this access condition, there is basically no way to meet the requirements in terms of scale and energy consumption,†said an industry insider who declined to be named.
According to incomplete statistics, there are currently 370 photovoltaic companies in 29 provinces and municipalities in China, of which more than 80 are polysilicon enterprises. People concerned pointed out that domestic polysilicon production does not have uniform energy consumption, land occupation, and environmental protection standards. Most polysilicon companies still have difficulty contending with foreign companies in terms of cost and quality, and about 80% of polysilicon production companies can hardly get rid of misfortunes that have been eliminated. .
“But in the short term, access conditions still give small businesses a buffer period, and it is unlikely that they will withdraw from the market and transfer their products in a concentrated manner.†What kind of effect will the “access conditions†have on the polysilicon industry? An interview with reporters said that the implementation of this condition will be beneficial to the healthy development of China's polysilicon industry in the long run, and it will also have important significance for eliminating backward production capacity and reducing the overall production cost of polysilicon, which will benefit the sustainable development of the entire solar industry. More importantly, with the improvement of access thresholds, the future expansion of polysilicon will be concentrated on several existing companies with certain technological advantages and scale advantages. Pressure on the supply side will be the driving force for the continued rise of polysilicon prices in the short term.
Li Shengmao, a senior researcher at China Investment Consulting Group, believes that “Entry conditions†will increase the industry entry threshold by quantifying the energy consumption index value, environmental protection index value, and production index value of the working enterprises in the polysilicon industry, and will try to “first buy and then buy The "tickets" of enterprises are kept out of the door, which helps to build superior enterprises to become bigger and stronger. “Some small and medium-sized enterprises with relatively poor production technology lack both technology and capital, so their best way out is to accept mergers and reorganizations of large companies or introduce strategic investors to raise their own capacity.â€
The rapid expansion of production capacity in the middle and upper reaches of the enterprise When it comes to the ever-changing domestic polysilicon market, the photovoltaic industry naturally has to book a book. In the long run, the growth of the photovoltaic market is a long-term trend, and the parity of photovoltaic power generation will continue to improve. In 2006, the global PV installation capacity was 1.8Gw, and in 2010, it was 15Gw to 16Gw, which was an increase of about 8 times. According to industry forecasts, the global installed capacity of PV will be 35Gw by 2015, and the annual increase in PV installations in the next 5 years is estimated to be 20% to 25%.
The reporter was informed that since the European countries successively introduced the PV subsidy reduction policy last year, the market once worried about the 2011 PV market demand. However, the actual situation is that after Germany and other countries introduced the PV subsidy reduction policy, the PV demand did not show a significant decline, and the negative impact of PV subsidy reduction was lower than market expectations.
After the Japanese earthquake caused the suspension of production of Japan's major photovoltaic companies, it is expected to have a positive impact on China's PV product exports. According to industry sources, 60% to 70% of the current PV market in Europe is the share of Chinese companies, and the rest is occupied by Japanese companies. This earthquake will further increase the share of Chinese companies in overseas markets.
On the one hand, the threshold for the industry will increase, and the number of employees will be significantly reduced. On the other hand, prospects for the development of the photovoltaic industry at home and abroad are expected to expire. The reason for this has led to a rise in polysilicon prices this year. At present, the domestic polysilicon price has exceeded 110 US dollars / kg, compared with the end of last year has nearly 100% increase. Hou Wentao, a senior analyst at Xiangcai Securities in China, said that polysilicon demand is expected to grow at a rate of 30% a year, which will lead to a continued rise in the price of polysilicon.
After the introduction of the policy, small businesses are adopting a wait-and-see attitude toward the market. Several major polysilicon giants are stepping up their expansion of the production line. Due to the relatively short time required for project expansion, it will become necessary to expand profits before the market demand has become clear and weak. General consensus.
In June 2010, Suntech announced high-profile production expansion plan, and its planned production capacity of 2.68 billion yuan to expand production of 1G watts almost doubled; subsequently, Yingli announced the expansion of 400 megawatts of production capacity.
In January 2011, LDK acquired SPI Systems of the United States. The company will complete the spin-off this year and complete the listing of the silicon materials and chemicals business in Hong Kong. At present, LDK Polysilicon production line is 15,000 tons, a total investment of 10 billion yuan, of which 20% of the investment is for recycling systems.
A month later, GCL-Poly also announced that it will invest a further HK$17.7 billion, and will increase its polysilicon production capacity from the current 21,000 tons to 25,000 tons by the end of this year, and plans to achieve a capacity of 65,000 tons by the middle of next year.
At the same time, the correspondent was informed that on March 30th, Daquan Group's “Daquan Photovoltaic Industrial Park†started construction in Shihezi City, Xinjiang, and Daquan Group planned to build an annual output of 20,000 tons of polysilicon in the Chemical New Material Industrial Park in Shihezi Development Zone. , 1000 MW silicon wafer, 500 MW battery factory, further enlarge and strengthen its photovoltaic industry.
“At present, the spot market for polysilicon is seriously out of stock, and it is common for small and medium-sized downstream manufacturers to rush to buy goods. Therefore, by taking advantage of this opportunity, some mid-to-upper-stream companies will open up the industrial chain and ease the impact of raw material shortages on the future development of the enterprise before the access conditions are further implemented. The influence is also reasonable." An industry expert commented.
Overcapacity "prelude"?
According to statistics from the Energy Development Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, the demand for polysilicon in China needs to be imported at 97% in 2006, and the annual self-sufficiency rate will increase year after year. In 2009 and 2010, the self-sufficiency ratio will be maintained at 50%. Although the current self-sufficiency rate is not high, but in accordance with the current domestic polysilicon manufacturers to implement the expansion plan, and photovoltaic cell production speed comparison, it is expected that within 2 to 3 years, the domestic polysilicon can be completely self-sufficient.
“Most of the domestic polysilicon production capacity will begin to release in the second half of 2011. Despite the market is still in short supply, but with the overcapacity and end demand in the middle and lower reaches of the market, many listed companies involved in polysilicon are also afraid of obtaining an ideal return.†Photovoltaic professionals believe that the release of production capacity needs to be synchronized with the demand of terminals. Once dislocation occurs, companies will face greater risks.
At present, there are two development strategies in the photovoltaic industry: one is the integration and integration strategy of the industrial chain; the other is to focus on a single or a few production processes, expand the production scale, and provide production efficiency strategies.
Industry experts pointed out that vertical integration and integration of the industrial chain is to coordinate the structure of the upstream and downstream industry chains, thereby shortening the time required to complete the production of the entire product. However, vertical integration and integration can hardly guarantee that there is technology or scale at each production stage. The advantages, thereby forming a full industry chain competitive advantage.
In this regard, experts reminded that companies need to focus on risk control at this stage, strengthen technological innovation, improve product quality is the fundamental to achieve sustainable development of the company. At present, most domestic first-line manufacturers mainly produce polysilicon batteries, and the number of manufacturers involved in the film industry is small. Guowei Junan analyst Zhang Wei commented that the most promising technology is currently thin-film solar cell technology. The first reason is that the space for the development of its battery efficiency is the largest in thin-film batteries. Second, the production technology of CIGSSe thin-film batteries has gradually matured, the number of manufacturing enterprises has been increasing, and the cost has been further reduced in the future.
The "2011 Photovoltaic Industry Development Report of China" pointed out that the breakthrough of the seven key technologies in the photovoltaic industry will change the development process and competitive landscape of the entire photovoltaic industry. Among them, the breakthrough in thin film technology will enable the market share of thin film batteries to expand in the future; the installation and supporting device market will show great opportunities for growth both in the international and domestic markets; the photovoltaic equipment industry is shifting to China and there are plenty of opportunities for expansion; Inadequate supply of auxiliary materials and equipment will become investment hotspots in the future; more comprehensive factors such as product availability will become an important competitive factor in the future photovoltaic market; the addition of certain strong competitors will change the competitive landscape of the future photovoltaic market. New disruptive technologies may change the process of industrial development and the competitive landscape.
"To get rid of the current situation of low-end competition, we must take the route of refinement and slow expansion to ensure competitiveness in the international market." Experts said, "The domestic photovoltaic companies should promote the main direction of high-tech industrialization, clearly through the development of key films. Solar cells, support for the development of high-efficiency crystalline silicon solar cells, breakthrough in the development of core equipment for thin-film solar cells, upgrading of technological and industrial energy levels, and improvement of product quality; optimization of industrial layout, promotion of industrial cluster development, and ultimately achieving the sustainable development of polysilicon and photovoltaic industry road."
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