Rebar prices or consolidation

On July 19, 2013, statistics were made on the inventory of major steel warehouses in the Shanghai region. At present, the rebar is 307,400 tons, which is 0.11 million tons less than the previous week's statistics (July 12, 2013); and 93,600 tons of wire rods, compared with the previous week. The statistics were reduced by 0.01 million tons; the disc screw was 31,900 tons, which was a statistical increase of 0.05 million tons from last week.

In addition, the statistics of all warehouses in the Japan Network (including brick warehouses in Songjiang, etc.), total 358,600 tons of thread, which was 0.111 million tons less than the same caliber last week; and 112,400 tons of wire rods, which was 0.01 less than the statistics of the same caliber last week. Ten thousand tons; plate screw 45,200 tons, compared with the same week last week increased by 0.07 million tons.

1. Shanghai Stock Rebar Inventory Trend Analysis Currently, Shanghai rebar inventory is 307,400 tons, which is a decrease of 0.11 million tons or 0.36% compared with last week (2013-7-12), and the decline rate has narrowed significantly; compared with last year. Compared with the same period (2012-7-20), the rebar decreased by 16900 tons year-on-year, a year-on-year decrease of 11.67%, and the decrease was narrower than last week.

Second, the national rebar inventory trend analysis At present the country's major cities rebar inventory is 6,780,400 tons, compared with last week (2013-7-12), this week, the national rebar inventory fell by 252,400 tons, a decline of 3.59%, the decline Compared with the previous period (2012-7-20), it has decreased 362,900 tons, a decrease of 5.08% year-on-year, and the decline has also increased.

Third, the national rebar inventory analysis This week, domestic rebar inventory continues to decline, the deceleration has expanded. From the ring data, the changes in each region are as follows: 47,100 tons in East China, 29,200 tons in Central China, 10,700 tons in South China, 22,300 tons in Southwest China, and 34,400 in North China. Tons, the reduction in the northwest was 46,000 tons and the reduction in the northeast was 62,200 tons.

From the perspective of major cities, rebar stocks in major cities in China have generally declined this week. The cities with more obvious inventory changes are as follows: Dalian stocks have the largest drop of 44,000 tons, Hangzhou has 25,800 tons, Lanzhou has 25,000 tons, Harbin has 23,000 tons, and Wuhan has 1.92. Ten thousand tons.

This week, the total amount of domestic rebar stocks was reduced to 362,900 tons, including 60,400 tons in East China, 0.64 million tons in Central China, 115,400 tons in South China, and 235,300 tons in southwestern China. The area decreased by 64,400 tons, the reduction in the northwest region was 158,800 tons, and the reduction in the northeast region was 251,600 tons.

Fourth, Shanghai market rebar price trend analysis Despite the slowdown in downstream demand release this week, merchants shipped down from the previous period, but in the current inventory is still low support, the market pulled up confidence will not diminish, this week Shanghai construction steel Prices continue to rise, while gains have increased since last week. As of press release, the price of Shanghai HRB400 rebar material with 20mm specifications was 3,500 yuan/ton, which was RMB 60/ton higher than last Friday's price. In terms of snails, the spiral price inertia is higher in this cycle. As of the close on Friday, the 1401 contract for the period screw closed at 3,692 yuan/ton, up by 36 yuan/ton from the previous Friday, or an increase of 0.98%.

5. The analysis of the trend of rebar prices in the national market is similar to the situation in Shanghai. This week, the domestic construction steel price has generally risen, and the increase has increased from last week. As of the close of the Friday, the average price of HRB400 material 20mm rebar from 24 cities nationwide was 3,578 yuan/ton, which was RMB 58/ton higher than that of July 12. Among them, the price increase in Fuzhou and Lanzhou was the most obvious, reaching a rate of RMB 140/ton, followed by a gain of RMB 100/ton in Guangzhou.

Sixth, the trend forecast next week Despite the slow release of downstream demand this week, merchants shipped back down from the previous period, but the current stock is still low support, the market pulled up confidence in unabated, thus this week domestic rebar prices continue to rise At the same time, the increase has increased from last week. This week, the number of domestic cities has risen. In terms of sub-regions, the growth rate of some cities in eastern China has narrowed, but the growth rates in South China, Central China, North China, Southwest China, and Northwest China have become more apparent. Specifically, domestic extreme weather continued this week, and large-scale rainfall and high-temperature weather affected the procurement of construction sites. As a result, purchases at construction sites throughout the country began to decline significantly this week, and merchants’ shipments declined significantly. Although the demand side is sluggish, it is shrinking from the supply side. From the data point of view, according to the latest data from the China Steel Association on July 17, the average daily output of crude steel in the steel association staff at the beginning of July was 1.694 million tons, a decrease of 3.84% from the previous period; the estimated daily average production of the country was 2.0830 million tons, a decrease of 4.50 from last month. %. From the market feedback point of view, as the early steel mills reduced production and increased exports, inventories fell significantly, especially when the market procurement suddenly improved in early July, the market inventory accelerated consumption, the steel factory warehouse is also dull, resulting in the current steel The status of factory and market inventory is obviously insufficient. At present, although the demand is slightly weaker, the current low inventory level will still form a certain support for market prices, while the dominant steel mills will adjust prices or continue to rise sharply on Sunday, which may stimulate the market once again. The domestic rebar price or consolidation will be dominated next week.