Low oil prices normalize oil market bearish sentiment
Since 2016, China-US economic data has been weak, global oil supply surplus and China's stock market plunged concerns continue to heat up, causing oil prices to break below the support level of 30 US dollars / barrel. Although the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice to set the lower limit of the price adjustment of refined oil products to 40 US dollars per barrel, that is, when the domestic crude oil price of the domestic refined oil price is lower than 40 US dollars per barrel, the domestic refined oil price is no longer adjusted. However, it has not brought good benefits to the oil market. After the oil price is moderated, the price adjustment of refined oil products has weakened, and the users in the middle and lower reaches pay more attention to the dynamics of crude oil. As a result of this, in the period of low oil prices, the downturn in the domestic refining oil market is difficult to improve, and the oil-selling business is not bearish, and the ex-factory prices are frequently lower.
Demand side performance is weak, market supply and demand conflicts are difficult to alleviate
Recently, the demand side of the terminal is difficult to change, and the operation of the middle and lower reaches of the market is extremely limited, and the market buying and selling atmosphere is not good. Specifically, diesel: With the increase in temperature and the gradual impact of the Spring Festival, the operating rates of large industrial and mining, infrastructure and other industries continue to decline, resulting in continued shrinking demand for diesel. Gasoline: After the holiday of New Year's Day, the reduction in driving has made the demand for gasoline tend to be flat, while the supply of domestic gasoline resources is sufficient, and the contradiction between supply and demand is still difficult to alleviate. Therefore, the demand side is also difficult to give support to the domestic reconciliation oil market.
Raw material prices have fallen sharply, cost support has weakened
In the near stage, under the dominance of short-selling factors, the prices of oil-regulating raw materials have experienced different degrees of decline. Specifically, the demand for products such as alkylation of steam-adjusting raw materials and MTBE is weak, and the market price decline is difficult. According to the data, as of January 15, 2016, the average price of alkylated gasoline in Shandong has dropped to about 4533 yuan / ton, a sharp drop of 451 yuan / ton from the end of December 2015; Shandong MTBE average price index to 4935 yuan / ton, down 110 yuan / ton from the end of December 2015. The market for buying and selling diesel fuel, diesel and biodiesel is weak, and the refinery's shipping prices are under pressure.
The market outlook: the international crude oil futures price is difficult to change to a low level, the news is difficult to support the domestic reconciliation oil market. At the same time, terminal demand will remain light, mid-stream and downstream users will not lose their bearish sentiment, and the market operation will be more cautious, and the market buying and selling atmosphere will be difficult to alleviate. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic refining oil market will continue to decline in the later period.
Since 2016, China-US economic data has been weak, global oil supply surplus and China's stock market plunged concerns continue to heat up, causing oil prices to break below the support level of 30 US dollars / barrel. Although the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice to set the lower limit of the price adjustment of refined oil products to 40 US dollars per barrel, that is, when the domestic crude oil price of the domestic refined oil price is lower than 40 US dollars per barrel, the domestic refined oil price is no longer adjusted. However, it has not brought good benefits to the oil market. After the oil price is moderated, the price adjustment of refined oil products has weakened, and the users in the middle and lower reaches pay more attention to the dynamics of crude oil. As a result of this, in the period of low oil prices, the downturn in the domestic refining oil market is difficult to improve, and the oil-selling business is not bearish, and the ex-factory prices are frequently lower.
Demand side performance is weak, market supply and demand conflicts are difficult to alleviate
Recently, the demand side of the terminal is difficult to change, and the operation of the middle and lower reaches of the market is extremely limited, and the market buying and selling atmosphere is not good. Specifically, diesel: With the increase in temperature and the gradual impact of the Spring Festival, the operating rates of large industrial and mining, infrastructure and other industries continue to decline, resulting in continued shrinking demand for diesel. Gasoline: After the holiday of New Year's Day, the reduction in driving has made the demand for gasoline tend to be flat, while the supply of domestic gasoline resources is sufficient, and the contradiction between supply and demand is still difficult to alleviate. Therefore, the demand side is also difficult to give support to the domestic reconciliation oil market.
Raw material prices have fallen sharply, cost support has weakened
In the near stage, under the dominance of short-selling factors, the prices of oil-regulating raw materials have experienced different degrees of decline. Specifically, the demand for products such as alkylation of steam-adjusting raw materials and MTBE is weak, and the market price decline is difficult. According to the data, as of January 15, 2016, the average price of alkylated gasoline in Shandong has dropped to about 4533 yuan / ton, a sharp drop of 451 yuan / ton from the end of December 2015; Shandong MTBE average price index to 4935 yuan / ton, down 110 yuan / ton from the end of December 2015. The market for buying and selling diesel fuel, diesel and biodiesel is weak, and the refinery's shipping prices are under pressure.
The market outlook: the international crude oil futures price is difficult to change to a low level, the news is difficult to support the domestic reconciliation oil market. At the same time, terminal demand will remain light, mid-stream and downstream users will not lose their bearish sentiment, and the market operation will be more cautious, and the market buying and selling atmosphere will be difficult to alleviate. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic refining oil market will continue to decline in the later period.
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