The macroeconomic downturn has made the "electricity boss" and the "coal boss" both guilty: one side is the summer electricity shortage and the industrial power consumption is greatly reduced, while the other side is that the coal is too much to sell and the inventory backlog causes the coal to be full. Suffering from the price and falling prices. It is hard to imagine the two "Boss" days. However, some people believe that this phenomenon may be a positive factor for the Chinese economy rather than a symbol of recession. Perhaps the current dilemma can be attributed to the contradiction between “steady growth†and “tune-controlâ€. Whether it can be solved depends on how the relationship between these two tasks is handled. The summer power peak is difficult to solve the coal power, the national power is in full swing to peak summer, the national grid recently released figures show that this summer power gap has reached 25 million -37 million kilowatts, but such a large power gap has not eased Qinhuangdao The pressure on the coal port is growing. Information from Qinhuangdao Coal Port shows: "On June 2, Qinhuangdao Port's coal stocks reached 8.08 million tons, 3.16 million tons on the 3rd, 8.19 million tons on the 4th, and 8.36 million tons on the 5th." Statistics show that just two short In the month, Qinhuangdao’s coal stocks were less than 4 million tons, soaring up to the current level. The power plant inventory is already approaching 90 million tons. It can be described as "the coal is full of trouble." "At present, there is no sign that any coal backlog in the port has eased." An Zhiyuan, director of the Qinhuangdao Coal Network Information Center, told this reporter. According to An Zhiyuan's estimation, the power gap is not caused by coal shortage. The specific reasons remain to be seen. The important reason for the increasing pressure on coal stocks is that the downward pressure on the economy has increased, resulting in a drastic reduction in industrial power supply, which in turn has led to insufficient demand for thermal coal. According to information released by Qinhuangdao Coal Network, due to the reduction in electricity consumption, the downstream inventory has risen sharply. The number of coal used in key power plants has reached 27 days, a record high. The slowdown in power generation and electricity consumption also inhibited coal demand. Statistics show that in April, the total electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 3.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the lowest since January 2011. As of 8:00 on June 5, coal stocks in Jingtang Port Area climbed to 4 million tons, compared with the inventory in the same period last month, the inventory increased by 1.68 million tons, an increase of 72%. According to An Zhiyuan, due to the serious backlog of coal in the port and the near saturation, the port is taking measures to reduce the port, that is, mobilizing surrounding power generation companies to send large-tonnage trucks to pull coal. According to the data, Qinhuangdao Port has the world's largest port coal yard, with a maximum stock of 10.425 million tons. However, Li Xuegang, general manager of Qinhuangdao Coal Trading Market, once said that the maximum stockpile is a theoretical value. Generally, it is difficult to carry out loading and unloading operations when it reaches 8 million tons. At this time, Qinhuangdao Port will formulate emergency plans, including some sparseness. Hong Kong measures and railway shipping restrictions. The balance between supply and demand has broken the serious backlog of coal in the port, which has led to the break of the balance between supply and demand of coal and electricity. The situation of oversupply of coal has led to the Bohai Sea thermal coal price falling to a new low this year. According to information from Qinhuangdao Coal Network, the coal market is still in a downturn, coal inventories in ports and power plants continue to increase, and the Bohai Sea thermal coal price index has fallen to a new low this year. The Bohai Sea Thermal Coal Price Index released by the Marine Coal Net Index Center shows that the comprehensive average price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in this period is 768 yuan/ton, which is 6 yuan/ton lower than the previous period, a decrease of 0.78% from the previous period. The level of decline in the same period last year has reached 9%. The comprehensive average price of thermal coal fell for five consecutive weeks, with a cumulative drop of RMB 19/ton. At the same time, the price of coastal coal shipping is also implicated. According to information from Qinhuangdao Coal Network, “the downturned coastal coal shipping market continued its downward trend. Since the coastal coal freight rate entered the downtrend channel, the ship shipping market price has fallen by nearly half, and the coal sea freight rate has been refreshed to a new low during the year.†According to Qinhuangdao Coal Net Shipping The data shows that on June 6, the freight rate of 16000-20000 tons of Qinhuangdao port to Shanghai, Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou continued to decline, and closed at 31 yuan/ton, 33 yuan/ton and 66 yuan/ton respectively. New low. The price of coal sea freight from 20,000-30,000 tons of ship type to Bohai Port to Shanghai and Zhangjiagang is 29 yuan/ton and 31 yuan/ton, which is stable. The price of coal sea freight from the same ship type to Guangzhou route is 60 yuan/ton. The chain continued to fall, with a drop of 2 yuan / ton. Some experts analyzed: Recently, the country has released a series of economic stimulus policies. A new round of major infrastructure projects have started, coal demand will moderately warm up, and the coastal transportation market is expected to usher in a phased bottom. However, the downturn in the shipping market has not changed, and shipping companies will still face a "severe test." According to Li Xuegang, an analyst at Qinhuangdao Coal Network, the relevant data released in early June showed that the economy still seems to be in the process of bottoming out. The main power companies' electricity coal consumption has shrunk, and the coal inventories of major shipping ports and key consumer companies have continued to increase. Coal imports are expected to remain high, domestic shipping prices have not stopped falling, etc., indicating that the operating environment of the thermal coal market in coastal areas has not only showed no signs of improvement, but has shown a further deterioration trend. Good? decline? The changes in coal stocks of Chinese power generation companies and port terminals have always been important indicators for macroeconomic analysis. The recent high coal inventory situation is even more worrying about whether the situation will deteriorate sharply, but there is considerable controversy in the industry for this conclusion. Li Xuegang said: "The current situation is more pessimistic. The main shipping ports in the Bohai Sea, the high coal stocks in the loading and unloading ports of the consumption areas, and the situation of coal pressure in the country are serious. In the short term, there is still room for domestic coal prices to fall." Li Xuegang believes that Qinhuangdao coal The port is the wind vane of the domestic coal market, and its port transaction price, inventory increase and decrease, and shipment volume changes can reflect the national situation. With 8 million tons of coal pressured, the coal market has entered the weakest period in the past 10 years. According to Li Xuegang's investigation, not only Qinhuangdao Port, Tangshan Port, Caofeidian Port, Tianjin Port and other major shipping ports in Bohai Sea continued to rise, which was generally in a state of high inventory. The sites of the ports in the major consumer regions of the country have also been “over-filled with coalâ€, and the situation of coal pressure in Hong Kong is serious. “Guangzhou, Ningbo and other coastal ports are mainly connected and unloaded, and the coal stocks close to the anti-city port of the consumer land are large, which makes the coal-to-ship ships unable to be unloaded and the port berths vacant.†But contrary to Li Xuegang’s pessimistic view, an article of Qinhuangdao Coal Network The article emphasizes: "For macroeconomic observers, the current high coal inventory phenomenon and price decline factors may be a positive factor for the Chinese economy rather than a symbol of recession." This article believes that due to the rapid development of China's economy, it has led to recent years. The import of coal has gradually increased, which is the main reason for the current high coal inventory and price decline. At present, the premium of Qinhuangdao coal price relative to Australia's Newcastle coal price has reached the highest level in more than three years. The latest data shows that the price of coal in Newcastle is about US$92/ton, which is less than RMB600/ton. Even if the freight is included, it is very competitive in the southern coast. According to analysts, after adjusting freight rates and other factors, Chinese power generation companies can purchase Australian coal by nearly 25%. Why are overseas coal prices so cheap? The answer is that US shale gas development technology has led to major changes in the US energy mix. Shale gas development has caused US natural gas prices to fall by 50% in the past three years. This has caused US power plants to replace coal with natural gas. China's rapid economic growth in the past decade has been plagued by energy shortages. The energy revolution brought about by shale gas development can make Chinese policy makers feel a little relieved, both in the short-term and long-term.
Din Ball Valve,Din Flange Ball Valve,Flanged Floating Ball Valve,Industrial Flange Ball Valve
Wenzhou Dico Valve Technology Co.,Ltd. , https://www.dicovalves.com