According to Hong Kong's October 19 news, Chinese aluminum smelters are avoiding the 2011 one-year alumina supply contract and tend to purchase alumina in the spot market, which means that if the price of this raw material fluctuates greatly, it is estimated Some aluminum producers may be forced to close capacity or cut production.
The one-year contract price of alumina is expected to be about 16% of the LME aluminum price.
India's state-owned NALCO Aluminium Company sold 270,000 tons of 2011 alumina supply contract at a price of 15.83% of LME aluminum's monthly average price, FOB benchmark, while the 2010 contract price was 15.055% of LME aluminum monthly average price.
Some trade sources said that senior officials of China's aluminum smelters said that the one-year contract price of alumina in Australia in 2011 is expected to be 16% of LME aluminum price, and this year is about 14.5-15%.
China's aluminum smelters buy more Australian alumina.
“If alumina prices are more than 14% of LME aluminum prices, Chinese aluminum smelters will lose money by using imported alumina for production. If they are not profitable, these producers are expected to close capacity.â€
However, spot alumina prices are still at a low level and can cause smelters to make profits or purchase alumina from China, but this means more risks for smelters.
A source from a Western alumina producer said, “What about China's aluminum producers? Purchasing alumina in the domestic market? They don't trust domestic contracts, so refineries will be forced to buy in the spot market. Spot market prices change more quickly."
Overseas alumina buyers pointed out that many smelters in China lack the option to obtain stable alumina supply, as Chinalco, China's largest alumina producer, tends to sign long-term contracts, while the spot market risk of relying on small alumina producers is too high. .
Chinalco's 2011 alumina price for domestic refineries is 17.5% of Shanghai's aluminum price, compared with 17-17.5% this year.
LME aluminum prices have risen by about 20% in the second half of this year.
At the end of June, China's aluminum prices have risen 12% to $16,390 per ton on Monday.
Officials of smelting producers said that high import oxidization prices have caused Chinese aluminum smelters to cancel at least 1 million tons of 2010 alumina import contracts, as the rise in LME aluminum prices has caused alumina's contracted prices to exceed domestic alumina for most of this year. price.
These smelters procure spot alumina in the domestic market to replace imported alumina, which led to a significant drop in alumina imports in China in the first nine months of this year by 22.4%.
In the Chinese market, spot alumina is quoted at 2,700-2,800 yuan per ton, while imported alumina is about 3,000 yuan per ton.
A trader who sells alumina to China said, “Many people are talking about the one-year contract price of alumina, which is expected to be 16% of the LME aluminum price, but the seller does not currently offer a quote.â€
Data show that in the first eight months of this year, China produced about 20 million tons of alumina, an increase of 38% over the same period of last year, and it is expected that China's alumina capacity will increase by at least 2.4 million tons next year.
According to estimates of primary aluminum production, China's demand for alumina in the first eight months of this year was 21 million tons.
Western alumina producers such as Alcoa also plan to introduce an index pricing system, which also exposes China Aluminum Smelter's alumina annual import contract to uncertainty.
An international trader said, “Fundamentally, index pricing is the use of spot prices to lock in a large supply of raw materials.â€
The one-year contract price of alumina is expected to be about 16% of the LME aluminum price.
India's state-owned NALCO Aluminium Company sold 270,000 tons of 2011 alumina supply contract at a price of 15.83% of LME aluminum's monthly average price, FOB benchmark, while the 2010 contract price was 15.055% of LME aluminum monthly average price.
Some trade sources said that senior officials of China's aluminum smelters said that the one-year contract price of alumina in Australia in 2011 is expected to be 16% of LME aluminum price, and this year is about 14.5-15%.
China's aluminum smelters buy more Australian alumina.
“If alumina prices are more than 14% of LME aluminum prices, Chinese aluminum smelters will lose money by using imported alumina for production. If they are not profitable, these producers are expected to close capacity.â€
However, spot alumina prices are still at a low level and can cause smelters to make profits or purchase alumina from China, but this means more risks for smelters.
A source from a Western alumina producer said, “What about China's aluminum producers? Purchasing alumina in the domestic market? They don't trust domestic contracts, so refineries will be forced to buy in the spot market. Spot market prices change more quickly."
Overseas alumina buyers pointed out that many smelters in China lack the option to obtain stable alumina supply, as Chinalco, China's largest alumina producer, tends to sign long-term contracts, while the spot market risk of relying on small alumina producers is too high. .
Chinalco's 2011 alumina price for domestic refineries is 17.5% of Shanghai's aluminum price, compared with 17-17.5% this year.
LME aluminum prices have risen by about 20% in the second half of this year.
At the end of June, China's aluminum prices have risen 12% to $16,390 per ton on Monday.
Officials of smelting producers said that high import oxidization prices have caused Chinese aluminum smelters to cancel at least 1 million tons of 2010 alumina import contracts, as the rise in LME aluminum prices has caused alumina's contracted prices to exceed domestic alumina for most of this year. price.
These smelters procure spot alumina in the domestic market to replace imported alumina, which led to a significant drop in alumina imports in China in the first nine months of this year by 22.4%.
In the Chinese market, spot alumina is quoted at 2,700-2,800 yuan per ton, while imported alumina is about 3,000 yuan per ton.
A trader who sells alumina to China said, “Many people are talking about the one-year contract price of alumina, which is expected to be 16% of the LME aluminum price, but the seller does not currently offer a quote.â€
Data show that in the first eight months of this year, China produced about 20 million tons of alumina, an increase of 38% over the same period of last year, and it is expected that China's alumina capacity will increase by at least 2.4 million tons next year.
According to estimates of primary aluminum production, China's demand for alumina in the first eight months of this year was 21 million tons.
Western alumina producers such as Alcoa also plan to introduce an index pricing system, which also exposes China Aluminum Smelter's alumina annual import contract to uncertainty.
An international trader said, “Fundamentally, index pricing is the use of spot prices to lock in a large supply of raw materials.â€
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