As a species highly correlated with the macro economy, the result of the non-ferrous metals index's first increase this year is somewhat unexpected. Analysts pointed out that there are two reasons for the strong non-ferrous metal index: one is the valuation restoration after the decline last year, and the other is the active structural opportunities within the sector. Looking into the future, under the background that the macro economy has not yet confirmed stabilization, the structural differentiation under the leadership of the supply and demand gap will remain the main logic for grasping the direction and opportunities of the industry for a period of time. The overall strength of the stock differentiation Shanghai and Shenzhen market recently showed a moderate rebound in the momentum of heavy volume, as a high Beta variety, the non-ferrous metal sector once again entered the investor's field of vision. On Tuesday, Shenwan Nonferrous Metals Index rose 1.73%, the largest increase among all the first-tier industry indices. Among them, China National Color Co., Ltd. achieved daily limit, Lufeng shares, Zijin Mining, and the non-ferrous stone increased by more than 5%. The number of stocks rising in the industry was as high as 64, accounting for more than 80%. When the market rebound is expected to be strong, it is not surprising that the non-ferrous metal sector has attracted attention. The strange thing is that the sector has been able to maintain a strong pattern this year. Statistics show that the non-ferrous metals index has risen 18.25% year-to-date, the largest increase among all industry indices. Obviously, this overall performance of the sector has clearly deviated from the macroeconomic and commodity trends. Analysts believe that there are two main reasons: First, the stock price in 2011 was seriously oversold. From the market statistics, the non-ferrous metal sector fell by 40.92% in 2011, ranking second in all industry sectors, with the first decline in the electronic sector, but in 2010 the electronic sector rose by 42.21%, while non-ferrous metals The sector has only risen by 15.75%. It can be said that in the past two years, the non-ferrous metal sector is basically in a state of weak growth and decline, which makes the stock price have a strong rebound momentum, which is very similar to the rebound logic of the previous real estate stocks. Second, the structural differentiation is obvious. The index's first increase does not mean that the industry as a whole is stronger. In fact, non-ferrous metal stocks with better growth this year are mainly rare earths, magnetic materials, gold and some small metal stocks. Although the above varieties are not the main constituents of non-ferrous metals from the perspective of the industry, in the A-share market, the relevant stocks are important weights of the non-ferrous metals sector. For example, Baotou Steel Rare Earth, Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, Gold Molybdenum, and Xiamen Tungsten are among the top ten heavyweights in the Nonferrous Metals Index. Therefore, the structural strength of some heavyweights supported the market performance of the sector. Supply decision investment opportunities In the current market, the market's trend in the past two days has shown a clear desire to stabilize and rebound. With this positive sign, some of the cyclical stocks may have excess benefits in the stage, so the highly flexible non-ferrous metal sector is worth Appropriate attention. However, from a fundamental point of view, even if the non-ferrous metal sector rebounds, it may continue to maintain a structural pattern. From a fundamental perspective, the factors affecting the trend of the non-ferrous metal sector mainly include the US dollar, liquidity, supply and demand. At present, the US dollar index and liquidity are expected to stabilize in the future, so the supply and demand pattern will become the most important aspect of industry changes. On the demand side, Guohai Securities pointed out that the current global economic PMI is in the vicinity of the 50% glory line, the economic recovery of the United States and China is slowly weak, and the European economy continues to deteriorate. Combined with the judgment of the bottom of the economy in the second quarter, the price of non-ferrous metals is expected to stabilize at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter. Therefore, the price of metals driven by demand improvement will be stable and rebound. Since the situation of sluggish demand will remain, the supply pattern will become the most important factor in grasping the structural opportunities of the short-term non-ferrous metal sector. At the supply level, small metal stocks may be larger than the basic metal sector. At the small metal level, the overall strength of the rare earth permanent magnet concept stocks has already suggested a structural opportunity for the supply to be suppressed, and this opportunity is also expected to be reflected in other small metals. For example, Debon Securities pointed out that both tungsten and antimony have the characteristics of “earth stocks and production in the world, corresponding to downstream industries as emerging industries, and future domestic policy tightening supply expectations are deepened†and similar to rare earth industry characteristics, medium and long-term prices are bullish. Unlike small metals, the supply of base metals is short-term and has the ability to support stock prices. For example, according to the Oriental Securities Research Report, China's copper and aluminum production reached a record high in June. Among them, the refined copper production in June reached 518,000 tons, an increase of 8.6%; the cumulative primary aluminum output from January to June was 9.485 million tons, an increase of 10.1%.
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