China's new energy will force the domestic market to break down

Abstract Near the end of 2012, China's PV industry has successively encountered “double-reverse” investigations from the United States and the European Union. Under the umbrella of the trade "big stick", China's photovoltaic module manufacturers "go...
Near the end of 2012, China's PV industry has successively encountered “double-reverse” investigations from the United States and the European Union. Under the circumstance of trade “big stick”, the door of “going out” of China's PV module manufacturers has been closed, and China's new energy industry has been in trouble.

"This is the only way for China's new energy industry to standardize development and industrial transformation." Wu Shengxue, director of the Energy Bureau of Jiuquan City, Gansu Province, commented.

Represented by wind power and photovoltaic power generation, China's new energy industry has developed rapidly in the past decade. Liu Zhenya, chairman of the China Electricity Council, said at the 2012 Power Enterprise Summit that China's wind power installed capacity has increased 118 times, with an average annual growth rate of more than 60%; solar photovoltaic power generation installed capacity has increased 67 times, with an average annual growth of more than 50%. Wind power installed capacity ranks first in the world.

It is understood that after two years of adjustment, the problems in China's wind power industry have not been reduced.

According to the authoritative report, in the first half of the year, the country's newly installed hoisting wind turbines were 5.41 million kilowatts, which was basically the same as that of the first half of last year. As of June 30, the national wind power accumulated capacity reached 61.9 million kilowatts. However, due to the power cut in the “Three North” region, the grid-connected capacity decreased by about 16% year-on-year to 7.88 million kilowatts.

"Delivery is still a big problem that restricts the development of the wind power industry." Wu Shengxue said.

In early November, Europe and the United States began a "double-reverse" investigation of Chinese PV companies. According to the China Metal Industry Association Silicon Industry Branch, 90% of China's PV industry is currently in foreign markets, 70% of which are sold to Europe, and the remaining 30% are sold to the US and other regions. The European and American "double anti-" restrictions, the domestic photovoltaic industry will face huge losses.

The industry generally believes that China's PV is in trouble. There are two main factors. The internal cause is that when the market situation is good during the 11th Five-Year Plan period, many enterprises blindly enter and over-investment leads to overcapacity. The external cause is the proportion of external demand in China's PV market. If it is too large, it will be quickly “into the winter” when it is suppressed by the trade protection of Europe and the United States.

The reporter learned that the country's recent incentive policies for the photovoltaic industry have been introduced, and the expansion of domestic market demand has become the first choice. "The current viable strategy for saving PV companies is to further expand domestic demand." Wu Shengxue, director of the Jiuquan Energy Bureau, said.

Shenyin Wanguo [microblogging] securities analysis believes that in this context, the focus of the photovoltaic industry chain will shift from manufacturing to application, and the market focus will shift from abroad to China. The biggest point is the domestic distributed application market.

The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Solar Power Development” issued by the National Energy Administration clarifies that by the end of 2015, the installed capacity of solar power will reach 21 million kilowatts or more, which is 6 times the scale of domestic solar installations, and is also the target of the previous planning. Times.

Zhou Jianhong, general manager of Nikkei Solar Power Co., Ltd., said in an interview that the current "overcapacity" is relative. The real reason is that the domestic market is lagging behind.

Some people believe that the dilemma or "force" China's transition from a photovoltaic manufacturing power to a manufacturing and application power, fundamentally bid farewell to the past "two heads outside".

Since the EU cut subsidies for photovoltaic power plants in early 2011, the Chinese PV industry has proposed to open up the domestic market. Due to the tight capital chain of photovoltaic enterprises, the inability to build their own power stations, coupled with the domestic market is constrained by the difficulty of grid connection, has been slow. However, the recent "photovoltaic new deal" has broken this bottleneck and is attracting capital from outside the photovoltaic industry to enter photovoltaic power generation, or triggering a wave of "photovoltaic power investment hot".

The industry believes that the "double opposition" in Europe and the United States has also prompted Chinese PV companies to change their development methods. Wu Shengxue believes that “double opposition” is also an opportunity for industry consolidation and industrial adjustment and upgrading.

Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, believes that the blind construction of China's photovoltaic industry, low-level duplication, and homogenization competition are still very serious. When the industry sentiment index is low, domestic PV manufacturers can be forced to speed up product mix adjustment. To the high-end field.

On October 26th, State Grid [microblogging] issued the "Opinions on Doing a Good Job in Grid-connected Services for Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation (Temporary)", and proposed a distributed photovoltaic power generation project with a total installed capacity of not more than 6 MW for a single grid-connected point. Provide full-process services such as grid-connected testing and debugging, and the surplus power is fully acquired.

However, from the current phenomenon of large-scale wind power “abandonment of wind” in Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin and other “three north” areas, the problem of grid-connected consumption will also be transmitted to the photovoltaic industry. In the long run, in order to ensure the sustainable development of new energy, solving the problem of grid connection and consumption is a top priority.

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