Abstract Yesterday, the First Financial Daily was informed by a local energy official that China’s energy self-sufficiency rate remained at 91.4% last year under the overall energy import situation. This is already the energy self-sufficiency rate for three consecutive years to maintain this level. China’s energy self-sufficiency rate has been...
Yesterday, the “First Financial Daily†learned from a local energy official that under the current situation of full energy imports, China’s energy self-sufficiency rate remained at 91.4% last year. This is already the energy self-sufficiency rate for three consecutive years to maintain this level. China's energy self-sufficiency rate has been maintained at a high level. According to the statistics of this reporter, since the reform and opening up, the energy self-sufficiency rate has continued to decline. In 2006, it fell below 90% for the first time, and in 2007 it fell to the lowest level of 88.2%. Since then, it has risen again and has maintained a self-sufficiency level of 91.4% since 2010.
Maintaining this level is not easy in the context of continued growth in domestic energy consumption and growth in primary energy category imports. Chen Weidong, chief researcher of CNOOC Energy and Economic Research Institute, explained to the newspaper: "This is mainly because China's energy structure is dominated by coal, and the energy consumption pattern has not changed much."
In 2012, China's primary energy consumption totaled 3.62 billion tons of standard coal, of which coal is expected to account for about 66.4%; oil and natural gas accounted for 18.9% and 5.5%. In fact, all of the above three important energy sources need to be imported, and the import of natural gas and coal is very high.
According to data from the Coal Industry Association, the national coal output in 2012 was 3.66 billion tons, and the net import was 280 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%.
The National Energy Administration estimates that the dependence on foreign oil in 2012 reached 58.3%, up 1.7 percentage points from 2011 and 10.7 percentage points higher than that in 2006. It is estimated that crude oil production will reach 204 million tons and imports will reach 272 million tons. The external dependence will rise to 56.9%, 1.3 percentage points higher than the previous year.
According to the National Development and Reform Commission, in 2012, domestic natural gas production was 107.7 billion cubic meters, natural gas imports (including liquefied natural gas) were 42.5 billion cubic meters, and natural gas dependence was 28.9%, up 4.6 percentage points year-on-year.
Chen Weidong believes that over the years, China's energy structure has not changed much in general. Coal is still the protagonist, accounting for 70% of the long-term, oil is floating at 18%, and natural gas is more than 5%.
It is precisely because of the low proportion of oil and natural gas in the energy consumption structure that the fluctuation of its import volume has a limited impact on energy self-sufficiency.
In the context of domestic control of total energy consumption, especially in the context of controlling coal, oil and natural gas will increase their share of primary energy consumption in the future. The China Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute predicts that the dependence on foreign oil in 2013 may exceed 60%. According to the goal of the 12th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development, China's energy self-sufficiency rate should remain at 85% in 2015.
In the context of domestic oil and gas production is basically stable and there is no significant increase, imports will inevitably continue to increase. This will put forward higher risk resistance capability for large oil companies' overseas oil and gas projects, and put forward higher requirements for risk control in transportation and external cooperation.
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