Abstract After being postponed for one week, on December 17, the US Department of Commerce announced the final result of the “double-reverse†of China PV. The announcement that has a profound impact on China's PV shows that the US Department of Commerce has determined that China's crystalline silicon photovoltaic products are exported to the United States...
After being postponed for one week, on December 17, the US Department of Commerce announced the final result of the "double opposition" to China PV. The announcement that has a profound impact on China's PV shows that the US Department of Commerce has determined that the dumping margin of crystalline silicon photovoltaic products exported to the United States in China is 26.71% to 165.04%, and the subsidy range is 27.64% to 49.79%; The dumping margin of silicon photovoltaic products ranged from 11.45% to 27.55%.
And despite the plan, this ruling was put into practice (the customs officially levied "double-reverse" tariffs), but also need to obtain the final ruling of the US International Trade Commission (to be announced on January 29, 2015). But based on history, the US International Trade Commission has never overturned the US Department of Commerce's ruling. "Actually, the approval of the US International Trade Commission is just a form." A person familiar with the matter told the Securities Daily reporter that "the second "double opposition" situation in the United States is almost irreversible."
It is worth mentioning that, through the interviews of many reporters of Securities Daily, it was confirmed that the “double-reverse†scope of the US Department of Commerce – crystalline silicon photovoltaic products did not include silicon wafers. In response, the above-mentioned insiders said, "This is mainly because there is almost no silicon wafer production capacity in Europe and the United States. In the 'double anti-' investigation, it is impossible to prove it."
Trying to minimize losses
On December 17, a PV industry official revealed to the "Securities Daily" reporter that "the trip of the Chinese PV delegation to the United States to negotiate the second 'double anti-" issue was originally scheduled for September, but the US eventually dragged it to November. Give them a visa. When the delegation arrives in the United States, the US has finalized the final plan."
Therefore, it is no wonder that the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products pointed out in the "Statement on the Second Diversification of Dumping and Subsidy in the United States" that "the United States finally lacks genuine sincerity in cooperating to resolve this case. This is currently So far, the Sino-US consultation failed to reach a direct and fundamental reason for the solution."
On June 3 this year, the US Department of Commerce announced that it had initially ruled that China's crystalline silicon photovoltaic products exported to the United States received excessive government subsidies, ranging from 18.56% to 35.21%; on July 25, the US Department of Commerce announced The anti-dumping preliminary ruling results of China's crystalline silicon photovoltaic products have determined that there are dumping behaviors of crystalline silicon photovoltaic products exported to the United States and Taiwan in China. The dumping margin of mainland China products is 26.33% to 165.04%, and the dumping margin of Taiwan products is 27.59%. 44.18%.
Compared with the preliminary ruling, the dumping margin of products in Taiwan, which was determined by the final ruling, declined, but the subsidy range of mainland China products increased. In any case, according to the most pessimistic forecast of the previous market, the second "double opposition" of the United States to China's photovoltaics may jeopardize China's PV exports of more than 3 billion US dollars.
In fact, in the face of this expectation, domestic PV companies have begun to adjust to try to minimize losses. According to the reporter's understanding, the measures that may be taken at the enterprise level include opening up domestic and emerging markets, setting up factories overseas, increasing investment in downstream power stations, and optimizing the structure of corporate profit models.
Yan Xingxue, chairman of LDK, who was interviewed by the Securities Daily, said: "This US and Canadian double-reverse has caused damage to the Chinese PV industry, but the most hurt is their domestic terminal market. The double-reverse will focus more on developing China and other emerging markets to compensate for the negative impact of the US and Canada.
Wafer companies benefit instead?
From a market point of view, this time, the elimination of silicon wafers outside the "double opposition" will also have an impact on the industry.
"Since silicon wafers are not in the opposite direction, compared with manufacturers such as batteries and components, domestic manufacturers of polycrystalline silicon wafers and monocrystalline silicon wafers will not be affected much, and even gain the comparative advantage due to the overall obstruction of other photovoltaic products. An industry insider who did not want to be named told the "Securities Daily" reporter that "in addition to being immune to the double-reaction, it can continue to be sold outside the US market. Those Chinese PV companies that are forced to go overseas to build factories to avoid tariffs may be I also prefer to use silicon wafers made in China to make batteries, components, etc."
In addition, "although the US's 'double-reverse' completely blocked the photovoltaic cells and components in mainland China, the cost of producing these products in the United States is extremely high, and the withdrawal of products from mainland China leaves market vacancies. The Taiwanese region’s ruling anti-dumping margin is only 11.45% to 27.55%. This means that the batteries and components produced in Taiwan will still have the ability to compete with American products.†The above-mentioned industry further explained that “because of single crystal The gross profit is lower and the polycrystalline gross profit is higher. It is more profitable for Taiwan to export polycrystalline PV products to the United States. It can also reduce the price of polysilicon products, reduce the tax base and reduce the proportion of taxation. .
According to the "Securities Daily" reporter statistics, as of press time, the largest production capacity of China's polysilicon wafer manufacturers is Poly GCL (13GW / year), followed by LDK (3GW / year).
On this basis, GCL-Poly's polysilicon production capacity is 65,000 tons/year, ranking first in the country. LDK's polysilicon production capacity is nearly 20,000 tons/year, ranking second in the country. Therefore, the two companies also benefited from the anti-dumping policy of China's previous implementation of solar-grade polysilicon in the United States and South Korea, as well as the policy of prohibiting the import of polysilicon by processing trade issued by the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs (No. 58).
On December 31 this year, China will ban the approval of polysilicon processing trade, and the industry predicts that this will inevitably lead to an increase in solar-grade polysilicon domestic demand.
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