Since the beginning of 2009, the situation of the sharp decline in the domestic production materials market has been gradually suppressed. The prices of the continuously decreasing production materials have stopped falling and stabilized in January and February, and the market is in the process of gradually bottoming out. However, the market as a whole is still operating at a low level, and market prices have declined since late February.
Judging from the current situation, from January to February, the production and operation units have been replenished and stocked, and the inventory has reached a certain level. However, as the final demand has not yet fully started, the market is still relatively sluggish. Therefore, the actual sales of production materials will remain in March. Low state.
According to the statistics of China Logistics Information Center, from January to February, the total sales of production materials reached 3.35 trillion yuan, which was 1.1% lower than the same period of last year. In February, the total sales of production materials reached 1.68 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. If we consider the incomparable factors such as the Spring Festival, we will drop by nearly 1 percentage point year-on-year.
The main reasons for the decline in sales of production materials: First, the export demand has fallen sharply, and the contribution rate to the total market demand has dropped significantly. According to statistics provided by the General Administration of Customs, the export volume of 30 major production materials decreased by 36.3% from January to February, and the contribution rate of exports to the total domestic market demand rapidly decreased from 6% in 2008 to 3.6%. If China's import and export trade can maintain the same level of the same period last year from January to February this year, the total sales of production materials of the whole society will increase by 4.2% year-on-year.
Second, the growth rate of heavy industry production has fallen sharply, resulting in a relative decrease in the consumption of production materials. In the process of industrialization in China, the growth of heavy industry has been faster than the growth of light industry in recent years, but this pattern has changed since this year. According to the statistics provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's heavy industry development was relatively weak from January to February, and industrial added value increased by 3.8% year-on-year, of which heavy industry only increased by 2.7% and light industry increased by 6.5%. From the current industrial sales value, the output value of heavy industry sales decreased by 4.5% year-on-year, while the output value of light industry sales increased by 6.9%. In the total demand for production materials, heavy industry consumption demand accounted for more than 70%, so the rate of heavy industry development fell sharply, directly leading to a reduction in the consumption of production materials.
Third, there is a certain lag in the start of market demand and the sharp increase in fixed investment and loans. Although the fixed asset investment in urban areas increased by 26.5% in the first two months, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions increased by 24.17% at the end of February. However, there is a time difference in the realization of the final demand of the market. The effect needs to be gradually revealed, and it is also subject to investment and loans. The structure and its efficiency are affected by other factors.
The market price has stabilized and declined. According to the China Logistics Information Center's monitoring data on the production materials market price, the prices in January and February decreased by 13.5% and 15.4% respectively. In January, the comprehensive index of production materials has ended its sharp decline for five consecutive months, and prices have stabilized in the volatility, with a slight increase of 0.1% month-on-month. Among them, metal products and coal prices rebounded significantly. Compared with December last year, non-ferrous metals rose 10.8% on average, steel rose 3.1%, and coal rose 3.4%. In February, the prices of production materials basically maintained a generally stable pattern, with a slight decrease of 0.2% month-on-month. Among them, the fluctuations of non-ferrous metals and coal prices fluctuated greatly, and the month-on-month ratio decreased from 2.2% to 6.3% in January; steel prices generally stabilized, up 0.4% from the previous month; most chemical products prices rose significantly, with an average month-on-month ratio. It rose by 3.8%.
From the trend point of view, since the middle and late February, the price of production materials has been declining under the influence of the continuous decline in the prices of steel and refined oil. By mid-March, the average price of the steel market fell by 8% compared with February, and coal and major refined oil products also fell by 2.8% and 5.3% respectively. Although the prices of other production materials such as non-ferrous metals and major chemical products have remained stable or have increased, but the prices of steel and refined oil products have continued to decline, it is estimated that the average price of the production materials market in March will fall by more than 2%, a year-on-year decline. It will expand to around 17%.
According to the statistics of 30 major production materials, the total supply of resources (including domestic production + imports) decreased by 0.65% from January to February, and the total market demand (including domestic consumption + exports) decreased by 1.67%. The decline in market demand is greater than the supply of resources, and the supply-demand ratio is 1.6%. The market is in a situation of oversupply. At the end of February, the average inventory of 30 major production materials was available for a period of 1.4 months, an increase of 25.8% over the same period last year.
From the perspective of resource supply structure, the domestic production of 30 major production materials increased by only 0.16% year-on-year, of which about two-thirds of the production of products declined to varying degrees. For example, crude oil and major oil products such as refined oil and coke, some non-ferrous metal products such as aluminum, tin and zinc, and some chemical products such as soda ash and caustic soda, the production volume of these products is decreasing. The average import volume of 30 major production materials decreased by 8.2%, of which crude oil imports were 24.55 million tons, down 13%; steel imports were 1.96 million tons, down 26.6%; copper and aluminum were imported 77,000 tons and 67,000 tons respectively. It fell by 48.9% and 37.1% respectively; the import of automobiles was 43,800, a decrease of 29.6%.
From the structure of demand changes, the domestic consumption demand of 30 major production materials from January to February increased by only 0.35% year-on-year, and about one-half of the varieties decreased to varying degrees. Among them, coal decreased by 4%, crude oil decreased by 5.7%, kerosene, diesel and fuel oil decreased by 4% to 7%, and some chemical products such as soda ash and caustic soda also declined, and other products such as metals and other products increased. More than 1% to 6%.
From January to February, exports fell sharply. More than two-thirds of the 30 major production materials declined, with an average decline of 36.3%, of which coal exports were 5.11 million tons, down 41.6; steel exports were 3.47 million tons, down 52.1. %; copper and copper exports were 53,800 tons, down 38.8%; aluminum and aluminum exports were 170,000 tons, down 58.4%.
Due to sluggish domestic market demand and a sharp drop in export demand, the inventory level of production materials increased significantly. The average inventory of 30 products was available for 1.4 months at the end of February, an increase of 25.8% over the same period last year. Among them, the main refined oil, crude oil and coal stocks rose by 20% to 65%; iron ore stocks rose by 1.4 times; most non-ferrous metal inventories rose by more than 30%.
Judging from the current situation, from January to February, the production and operation units have been replenished and stocked, and the inventory has reached a certain level. However, as the final demand has not yet fully started, the market is still relatively sluggish. Therefore, the actual sales of production materials will remain in March. Low state.
According to the statistics of China Logistics Information Center, from January to February, the total sales of production materials reached 3.35 trillion yuan, which was 1.1% lower than the same period of last year. In February, the total sales of production materials reached 1.68 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. If we consider the incomparable factors such as the Spring Festival, we will drop by nearly 1 percentage point year-on-year.
The main reasons for the decline in sales of production materials: First, the export demand has fallen sharply, and the contribution rate to the total market demand has dropped significantly. According to statistics provided by the General Administration of Customs, the export volume of 30 major production materials decreased by 36.3% from January to February, and the contribution rate of exports to the total domestic market demand rapidly decreased from 6% in 2008 to 3.6%. If China's import and export trade can maintain the same level of the same period last year from January to February this year, the total sales of production materials of the whole society will increase by 4.2% year-on-year.
Second, the growth rate of heavy industry production has fallen sharply, resulting in a relative decrease in the consumption of production materials. In the process of industrialization in China, the growth of heavy industry has been faster than the growth of light industry in recent years, but this pattern has changed since this year. According to the statistics provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's heavy industry development was relatively weak from January to February, and industrial added value increased by 3.8% year-on-year, of which heavy industry only increased by 2.7% and light industry increased by 6.5%. From the current industrial sales value, the output value of heavy industry sales decreased by 4.5% year-on-year, while the output value of light industry sales increased by 6.9%. In the total demand for production materials, heavy industry consumption demand accounted for more than 70%, so the rate of heavy industry development fell sharply, directly leading to a reduction in the consumption of production materials.
Third, there is a certain lag in the start of market demand and the sharp increase in fixed investment and loans. Although the fixed asset investment in urban areas increased by 26.5% in the first two months, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions increased by 24.17% at the end of February. However, there is a time difference in the realization of the final demand of the market. The effect needs to be gradually revealed, and it is also subject to investment and loans. The structure and its efficiency are affected by other factors.
The market price has stabilized and declined. According to the China Logistics Information Center's monitoring data on the production materials market price, the prices in January and February decreased by 13.5% and 15.4% respectively. In January, the comprehensive index of production materials has ended its sharp decline for five consecutive months, and prices have stabilized in the volatility, with a slight increase of 0.1% month-on-month. Among them, metal products and coal prices rebounded significantly. Compared with December last year, non-ferrous metals rose 10.8% on average, steel rose 3.1%, and coal rose 3.4%. In February, the prices of production materials basically maintained a generally stable pattern, with a slight decrease of 0.2% month-on-month. Among them, the fluctuations of non-ferrous metals and coal prices fluctuated greatly, and the month-on-month ratio decreased from 2.2% to 6.3% in January; steel prices generally stabilized, up 0.4% from the previous month; most chemical products prices rose significantly, with an average month-on-month ratio. It rose by 3.8%.
From the trend point of view, since the middle and late February, the price of production materials has been declining under the influence of the continuous decline in the prices of steel and refined oil. By mid-March, the average price of the steel market fell by 8% compared with February, and coal and major refined oil products also fell by 2.8% and 5.3% respectively. Although the prices of other production materials such as non-ferrous metals and major chemical products have remained stable or have increased, but the prices of steel and refined oil products have continued to decline, it is estimated that the average price of the production materials market in March will fall by more than 2%, a year-on-year decline. It will expand to around 17%.
According to the statistics of 30 major production materials, the total supply of resources (including domestic production + imports) decreased by 0.65% from January to February, and the total market demand (including domestic consumption + exports) decreased by 1.67%. The decline in market demand is greater than the supply of resources, and the supply-demand ratio is 1.6%. The market is in a situation of oversupply. At the end of February, the average inventory of 30 major production materials was available for a period of 1.4 months, an increase of 25.8% over the same period last year.
From the perspective of resource supply structure, the domestic production of 30 major production materials increased by only 0.16% year-on-year, of which about two-thirds of the production of products declined to varying degrees. For example, crude oil and major oil products such as refined oil and coke, some non-ferrous metal products such as aluminum, tin and zinc, and some chemical products such as soda ash and caustic soda, the production volume of these products is decreasing. The average import volume of 30 major production materials decreased by 8.2%, of which crude oil imports were 24.55 million tons, down 13%; steel imports were 1.96 million tons, down 26.6%; copper and aluminum were imported 77,000 tons and 67,000 tons respectively. It fell by 48.9% and 37.1% respectively; the import of automobiles was 43,800, a decrease of 29.6%.
From the structure of demand changes, the domestic consumption demand of 30 major production materials from January to February increased by only 0.35% year-on-year, and about one-half of the varieties decreased to varying degrees. Among them, coal decreased by 4%, crude oil decreased by 5.7%, kerosene, diesel and fuel oil decreased by 4% to 7%, and some chemical products such as soda ash and caustic soda also declined, and other products such as metals and other products increased. More than 1% to 6%.
From January to February, exports fell sharply. More than two-thirds of the 30 major production materials declined, with an average decline of 36.3%, of which coal exports were 5.11 million tons, down 41.6; steel exports were 3.47 million tons, down 52.1. %; copper and copper exports were 53,800 tons, down 38.8%; aluminum and aluminum exports were 170,000 tons, down 58.4%.
Due to sluggish domestic market demand and a sharp drop in export demand, the inventory level of production materials increased significantly. The average inventory of 30 products was available for 1.4 months at the end of February, an increase of 25.8% over the same period last year. Among them, the main refined oil, crude oil and coal stocks rose by 20% to 65%; iron ore stocks rose by 1.4 times; most non-ferrous metal inventories rose by more than 30%.
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