Since the solar cell raw material polysilicon has rebounded strongly since July, it has risen by about 10% from the lowest point. The market is enjoying a good voice. Some experts even believe that the industry has already passed the “cold winter†and has gone out of the most difficult time. Recently, the local version of the PV on-grid tariff plan has been introduced, and the industry believes that it will promote the introduction of the national version of the on-grid tariff to a certain extent, thus stimulating the huge domestic market demand. However, the interview with Nandu was informed that as the European market is still unclear, the price of polysilicon is rising or difficult to sustain, and may lead to a serious compression of some SMEs' profit margins, and PV products may not be able to follow the price increase. Polysilicon price increases or difficult to sustain The solar industry association released a set of data show that polysilicon prices in May fell by 30% in April, the month-on-month decline in June fell by 28% to 53.4 US dollars / kg. In July, polysilicon prices suddenly rebounded strongly. GCL-Poly, LDK and other companies said that the spot price of polysilicon has continued to rise recently, and is currently up about 10% from the lowest point in the first half of the year. Some insiders analyzed that the recovery of demand in the European market has boosted the price of polysilicon. "I think the reason for the rebound in polysilicon prices is because the price has fallen too much in the previous period, and it is not the result of the recovery of demand in the European market." Lin Boqiang, a professor of economics at Xiamen University, told reporters that he believes that the European economic situation is still unclear in the short term. The recovery demand in Europe may also be very slow, coupled with the overcapacity of the domestic solar photovoltaic industry, so the rebound in polysilicon prices is difficult to sustain. He analyzed that in recent years, China's solar photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly, but the long-formed "two-outside" malformed industrial structure has not been fundamentally reversed. The terminal market of China's photovoltaic industry is mainly in Europe. However, the current overall economic situation in Europe is uncertain, the financial crisis has not bottomed out, and Greece, Italy and other countries are still facing a serious debt crisis, and it is difficult for polysilicon prices to maintain a sustained high level. It may not be beneficial to the photovoltaic industry. Will polysilicon as a raw material rise, will it drive up the price of photovoltaic products? In this regard, Guolian Securities analysts believe that some domestic silicon material factories will report planned repairs next month. With the climax of inspections in July and August, the impact of polysilicon price increases on the market will decrease in the short term. Moreover, since the current inventory of low-priced resources is mostly high-cost resources in the early stage, and the cost drives the price linkage, the gross profit remains at a low level. Not only that, Lin Boqiang analyzed that the rise in raw material prices will make some SMEs unsustainable. In addition, since the current electricity price of solar power generation in China is not online, the price of electricity is not high, and the rising production cost will bring great operational pressure to solar power generation enterprises. To this end, he suggested that the state can increase the amount of policy subsidies to support the development of the domestic photovoltaic industry. Gao Hongling, deputy secretary-general of China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance, also said in an interview with the media that with the gradual downward adjustment of the international PV subsidy policy, the PV market growth will gradually slow down, the price of PV products will continue to decline, and the PV profit margin will continue to fall. Recently, the local version of the photovoltaic on-grid tariff plan has been introduced, the industry believes that to a certain extent will promote the introduction of the national version of the on-grid price, thereby stimulating the domestic market demand for photovoltaic power generation.
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