Machinery industry: 2011 business optimism

In 2010, production and sales increased at a high speed, operating efficiency reached a record high, technological progress continued to make new progress, and structural changes were in line with policy trends. From January to October 2010, the industrial added value of the machinery industry increased by 21.4% year-on-year, 5.3 percentage points higher than the national average industrial growth rate of 16.1% in the same period, ranking first in all industries. The total output value was 11.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.82%. Among them, the growth rate of construction machinery is the highest, 50.30%; the growth rate of machine tools, automobiles, basic parts and internal combustion engines is about 40%; the growth rate of instrumentation, electrician, cultural office supplies and petrochemical general machinery is about 30%; food packaging machinery, agricultural machinery, heavy The mechanical growth rate is the lowest, about 20%. Since March this year, the monthly output value has exceeded the record of the highest monthly output value of 112.37 billion yuan in December 2009 for 8 consecutive months, and has steadily traversed the stage of monthly output value exceeding 1 billion yuan.

The increase in profit for construction machinery and automobiles is over 90%; the number of internal combustion engines for machine tools, instruments and basic components is second, with an increase of 60-75%; cultural office supplies, petrochemical general machinery, heavy mining machinery, and electricians are again increasing by 35-45%; The growth rate of packaging machinery and agricultural machinery is at least 25-30%.

New product development momentum is good
The output value of new products was 21,613 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.21%, faster than the year-on-year growth rate of 33.82% of the total industrial output value, indicating that the technological innovation activities in the machinery industry are relatively active.

High-end equipment, independent innovation, steady advancement
Large-scale advanced pressurized water reactor nuclear power projects began to be implemented, and large-scale nuclear power castings and forgings and nuclear power pump valves have made significant progress; Shanghai Electric's supercritical units successfully exported to India; Taiyuan Heavy Industry's large excavators exported to Russia; China's West Electric successfully developed The world's first 1000 kV, 1000 MVA UHV (double-column) self-coupled transformers have reached the international leading level. Guodian NARI's UHV transmission and transformation control and protection system development platform has reached the international advanced level.

Monthly growth rate falls month by month
The cumulative increase in total output value and profit of the machinery industry was 45.49% and 140.35% in January and February, 38.93% and 86.13% in January-March, and 33.82% and 63.59% in January-March.

Outlook for 2011
The increase in investment is expected to remain high. The investment in fixed assets, mainly based on industrial investment, will shift to consumer-oriented investment, with the main contents being culture, education, hospital construction and equipment purchase;

Factors such as the depreciation of the renminbi and the re-industrialization of European and American countries make it difficult for China's machinery industry to continue its rapid growth in exports;

The growth rate of the automobile industry will be significantly reduced due to the expiration of the consumption tax preferential policy;

Construction machinery is too high this year, the base is too large, it is difficult to maintain a high growth rate next year;

Next year, the growth rate of machinery industry revenue will fall, the profit growth rate will fall more sharply, the income growth rate is expected to be around 15%, and the profit growth rate may be lower than the income increase.

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