These industries have fluctuated to varying degrees in the financial crisis of 2009. Now the crisis has bottomed out, the situation is stabilizing, and the clouds after the crisis are set aside. It is hoped that the downstream industry will pursue the development direction of machine tools.
The shipbuilding industry is not optimistic
In the statistics of November 2009, China Shipbuilding Industry Association showed that in the first three quarters of 2009, China's shipbuilding industry completed 27.78 million deadweight tons, second only to South Korea, ranking second in the world, accounting for 31.2% of the global market.
New orders and hand-held orders were 16.92 million DWT and 92.4 million DWT, respectively, accounting for 70.2% and 37.6% of the world market. In the same period, the British Clarkson survey pointed out that Korea, the world's largest shipbuilding country, has been China is beyond.
Li Zhushi, executive vice president of China Shipbuilding Industry Association, told the China Metal Processing Online Reporter that the Chinese government introduced the "Shipbuilding Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan" in early 2009 to guide the shipbuilding industry to continue, stabilize and develop healthily. As long as the pace of economic globalization continues, the shipbuilding industry will maintain the first driving force for sustained and healthy development and will be positive and optimistic about the long-term development of the international shipbuilding market. Tan Zuojun, general manager of China State Shipbuilding Corporation, also acknowledged that the shipping industry and shipbuilding industry have been greatly affected by the impact of the international financial crisis, but he believes that with the rapid development of China's economy and the gradual recovery of the world economy, the future world The prospects for the shipping and shipbuilding markets are still very broad.
However, in the shipbuilding industry operation and performance report for the first nine months of 2009, the China Shipbuilding Industry Association predicted that although the ship market has rebounded slightly, in general, the global shipbuilding market has not yet recovered, and the shipbuilding market will be in the next 1-2 years. Still dominated by the downturn. Wang Jinlian, secretary-general of China Shipbuilding Industry Association, also said: The development of China's shipbuilding industry is still grim, and market competition is becoming increasingly fierce. In particular, the situation of difficult ship picking, difficult ship delivery, and difficult financing has not changed, and the huge production capacity, insufficient operating rate and product homogeneity are too strong, which has also led to low-price competition. In addition, China's shipbuilding industry is still facing a severe test of structural adjustment and fierce competition in major international shipbuilding countries.
“In the next few years, even if the demand for new ships will pick up, it will never reach the peak level in 2003-2008 in a short period of time. The recession will continue for a long time.†October 28-30, 2009 in Berlin, Germany At the 18th Japan, Europe, China, South Korea, and American Shipbuilding Summit (JECKU), nearly 100 delegates attended the judgment on the ship market. Therefore, as a machine tool industry that continues to provide mechanical equipment for marine diesel engines, augers, marine machinery and instrumentation, marine engineering, ship cranes, etc., in the face of the current state of the ship industry, it is necessary to recognize the situation and not be blindly optimistic.
The automotive industry is optimistic
With the Golden Orange Liberation J6 driving down the production line, China's 10 millionth car was born, becoming the third major automobile production and sales country after the United States and Japan. Driven by relevant policies, China's auto industry has seen a blowout market. In recent months, China's auto manufacturing output has risen steadily.
Although China has become one of the world's largest automakers, the situation does not seem as optimistic as we think. Many people in the industry said that the annual production volume of China's automobiles has reached tens of millions of vehicles, but our automobile production technology and research and development level are far from reaching this level.
Recently, the data of the General Administration of Customs showed that in the first three quarters of 2009, the export of automobiles and parts and components fell by more than 20%, and the prospects of the fourth quarter were not optimistic. The export data of customs in various places showed that it was not satisfactory. Therefore, China The export of auto parts has not recovered.
As the leading industry in the downstream industry of machine tools, the demand for machine tools has not risen with the increase in the number of cars. Chen Changnian, director of the equipment department of China Automotive Engineering Society, said that the demand for machine tools and equipment for automobile development is: "The level and quality of automobile manufacturing depends on equipment. At the same time, the international competitiveness of the automotive industry depends on the advanced nature of equipment and manufacturing costs.†With the development of technology, the level of manufacturing of auto parts will increase the requirements for machine tools, so it will benefit. Driven by the domestic automobile market, the demand for automotive equipment will keep in line with the growth of automobile production in the next few months, and the demand for machine tools is optimistic.
Aerospace is still the highlight
According to statistics, in the next 20 years, China needs to purchase more than 2,400 civilian passenger aircraft, worth up to 197 billion US dollars, plus various regional passenger aircraft and civilian transport aircraft, with a total value of 350 billion to 400 billion US dollars. Liu Zuoyu, executive deputy director of Shenfei Civil Engineering R&D Center, said that this is still a conservative estimate. At the same time, with the development of the defense industry, China's military aircraft will also be a big market. In short, China's aircraft market demand is huge.
With the launch of the large aircraft project, at the end of May 2009, China Commercial Aircraft Co., Ltd. signed a memorandum of understanding for the C919 large passenger aircraft supplier with nine domestic suppliers. At the beginning of September, the prototype of the domestic large-scale passenger aircraft C919 debuted at the 2009 Asia International Aviation Exhibition. In the same month, the large-scale fire fighting and water rescue amphibious aircraft development project was officially launched in Hubei Jingmen China Special Aircraft Research Institute... China Aerospace will be fully developed.
The development of China's aerospace industry is bound to drive and promote the development of equipment manufacturing. Due to the high temperature resistance, high strength, difficult processing, alloy materials and composite materials, complex structural parts and high process requirements, the aerospace industry products require large-scale (heavy-duty, ultra-heavy), high-speed, precision The trend of compound and intelligent development. Aeroengine and its parts processing requires a large number of high-precision machine tools for support. The complex structure of the engine and the blade processing require multi-functional, high-precision CNC machine tools, such as CNC vertical lathes, CNC precision boring machines and five-axis machining centers. To this end, the high requirements of the aerospace industry for machine tools, coupled with the presence of strong foreign machine tool companies such as Europe, the United States, Japan and the uncertainties under the current international financial crisis, further accelerate the development of domestic machine tools to the high-end.
Wind power industry investment is overheated
As an environmentally friendly and green energy industry, China's wind power industry has entered a new round of investment peaks when the 2009 financial crisis swept the world under the encouragement of relevant national new energy policies. The wind power market is booming, providing new opportunities for the development of the supporting machine tool industry. Among them, the processing of wind power plant related equipment is the main force of machine tool demand, and it needs a variety of precision, large-scale numerical control, special machine tools, such as large-scale milling machine, large-scale gear grinding machine, large-scale gear measuring machine, floor boring machine and Large motor manufacturing machine tools, etc. Most of the medium and high-end machine tools suitable for processing in this field have always relied on imports. China's machinery and equipment manufacturing industry is also focusing on the processing of wind power industry parts and components, and actively develops solutions with independent intellectual property rights to achieve import substitution. Especially in 2009, many large domestic machine tool manufacturers turned to the wind power industry, and the wind power industry was overheated.
Statistics from the China Wind Energy Association show that in the past three years, China's wind power installed capacity has increased by about 100%. A person from the China Wind Energy Association said: "This growth rate will continue in the next few years." Yang Xiaosheng, chief engineer of Longyuan Power Group, believes that "the total installed capacity of wind power in 2008 was only 12 million kW, accounting for the total installed capacity of power. 1.5% of the electricity generation accounts for only 0.3% of the country's total power generation. In 2009, wind power development investment was overheated, but there was no excess.
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As the wind power industry continues to mature, its demand for machine tools will have a double improvement in quality and quantity, which in turn will promote the upgrading of the product structure of the Chinese machine tool industry.
The construction machinery situation is improving
Due to infrastructure investment and post-disaster reconstruction, the construction machinery is particularly good in areas such as excavators, mobile cranes, loaders and bulldozers. Su Zimeng, the new secretary-general of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, said: "According to the current sustained recovery, China's construction machinery industry is expected to exceed 310 billion yuan in total sales in 2009, achieving positive growth of over 12%." However, Su Zimeng still expressed that exports Worried.
From January to March 2009, the export volume decreased by 23%. From January to September, the export volume fell by 44.6% year-on-year. Except for the overseas market of individual products, there is a slight recovery. Generally speaking, China's construction machinery industry has not exported yet. Better, the recovery of future exports will be a long process.
Shanghai Securities analyst Ping Jingwei is relatively optimistic. He predicts that the construction machinery industry's 2009 sales revenue will increase by 16% year-on-year. It is estimated that the export year-on-year decline in 2009 will be about 30%. In 2010, the export situation will gradually improve, with a growth rate of 30%.
In 2009, China ushered in a new era of track construction. The construction of rail transit projects in 22 cities began. By 2015, there will be 79 rail transit lines in 22 cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. At the 2009 International Urban Rail Transit Exhibition, which ended in November, let us see that urban transportation construction in the next few years will bring more business opportunities to the machine tool industry.
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