Since the official retirement of the chairman of Sinopec Group in May last year, Fu Chengyu, who has worked in the Chinese petroleum industry for more than 30 years, has rarely appeared. During the two sessions this year, Fu Chengyu, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, returned to the public's view and expressed his views on issues such as state-owned enterprise reform, overcapacity in refining, and "going out" of Chinese enterprises. After removing the identity of the senior executives of the central enterprises, the oily veteran with dark face and thick eyebrows speaks more directly and truthfully, pointing to the current industry problems.
When talking about excess refining capacity, Fu Chengyu said that excess refining capacity is even worse than steel. Last year, the national refining capacity reached 750 million tons, but the actual demand is only 500 million tons. In addition, it has been approved for construction. It is estimated that the refining capacity will reach 900 million tons by 2020. The reason why the refining is not included in the capacity-producing industry is mainly because the oil industry is still making money now, and it is not a loss in the whole industry. The pressure can be eased temporarily.
According to Caixin.com, in response to the reform of state-owned enterprises, Fu Chengyu said, "On the one hand, the above is very urgent and very hot. The Prime Minister personally supervised the deployment and continued to introduce policies and measures to support the real economy and the new economy. On the other hand, The grassroots are very urgent, but it is very cold - the grassroots policy has not landed, only the voice, no action." A large number of state-owned enterprises did not implement the reform reasons, he said "one is afraid of being robbed, the second is afraid of the loss of state-owned assets and the accounts after the fall, I am cautious." Fu Chengyu suggested that for enterprises that can be reformed, the government should clearly decentralize power, and enterprises should reform as soon as possible to prevent small problems from being dragged into big problems and prevent the annihilation war from becoming a protracted war.
In the economic group discussion, Fu Chengyu also criticized the "walking relationship" problem of Chinese enterprises going out. He said that the Chinese used small cleverness to take the relationship, and privately thought that they could solve everything. "I still like to talk about it, and I am proud of it."
Before entering Sinopec, Fu Chengyu was also the head of CNOOC, the developer of China's largest offshore oil and gas field. Since entering CNOOC in 1983 and taking over Sinopec in 2011, Fu Chengyu has participated in and promoted the reform and restructuring of CNOOC and overseas listings, and has gradually grown into a leading energy giant in westernization and management, and is unique among central enterprises.
During the two sessions, CNOOC's WeChat public account, CNO Sixianghui (cnoocdaily) interviewed the old leader Fu Chengyu. During the conversation, Fu Chengyu talked about the future trend of international oil prices, saying that “this year’s average oil price can reach 40 US dollars/barrel is goodâ€; sharing the views on energy transformation and transformation, “predicting the next 20 to 30 years Significant changes, the newly added energy demand must be new energyâ€; he also reminded that while fully considering the risks of the “Belt and Roadâ€, it is also necessary to “really understand the needs of the other party and meet their future needs.â€
“It’s good to have an average oil price of $40/barrel this yearâ€
At this stage, this oil price is not a problem of which oil company (survival), it is a problem of the whole industry. In the end, it depends on who can get to the end. Generally speaking, it is a big company in the end.
Global oil companies' annual spending has begun to decrease (10% to 14%), and if it has been reduced for three consecutive years (which is rare in history), it means that future oil production will inevitably decrease.
Having said that, it is expected that this year's oil price will remain at $30/barrel. It may be a bit low. The average annual price of $40/barrel is good. In the next few years, the price of oil will definitely increase, but it will be 50~60 USD/barrel. Not bad (because after this price, the US shale oil and gas company is easy to survive).
So in the short term, oil companies should not expect oil prices to return to 80 or even $100/barrel.
"The United States is no longer afraid of the Middle East chaos, and traditional oil producers are afraid."
Let's take a look at the 1998 (and most recently) drop in oil prices.
In 1998, the oil price fell by $10/barrel in the shortest time, which is lower than it is now. By 2003, the oil price slowly rose back to 23 US dollars, 25 US dollars, 30 US dollars. We felt very good until 2006 and 2007. The price of oil has risen to over $100/barrel.
However, the rise in oil prices from 1998 to 2006 and 2007 was a departure from the rise in supply and demand. At that time, oil prices were more financial, equivalent to stocks.
The previous round of oil price fluctuations that are out of supply and demand is unsustainable. This round of oil price decline is both an irrational return and an increase in actual supply capacity. The fundamental driving force is the greatly improved supply capacity, especially the increase in supply after the 2008 financial crisis. The main source is the US shale oil and gas. The major commercial breakthrough of US shale oil and gas is that after 2008, horizontal fracturing will make its oil and gas production In less than ten years, it has grown by hundreds of millions of tons, and its oil and gas production has increased substantially, making the United States not only grab the current market of traditional oil producing countries, but also grab the future market. Changes in supply have led to geopolitical changes, and the United States is no longer afraid of the Middle East chaos, and traditional oil-producing countries are afraid.
Observing whether the supply of shale oil and gas in the United States has decreased, it depends on whether the number of rigs is small. This indicator really determines how much it produces. Looking at it now, the number of rigs is currently limited, and in the next six months, the number of shale oil and gas rigs in the United States will decrease.
“The new energy demand must be new energyâ€
Predicting the major changes in the next 20 to 30 years, not only oil is energy, oil will eventually become regional, local, and the total supply will not increase significantly. The demand for new energy in the future must be new. energy.
The new energy layout should look at the future systematically. I believe that China's future is to build an energy network. This is also a national strategy and requires enterprises, especially state-owned enterprises and central enterprises, to practice.
So what is the energy network? Our current hot gas and hydropower are all part of the energy network. We are now a separate supply, causing energy waste. If we can concentrate supply, energy efficiency will be greatly improved. Distributed energy is a good way to supply a large grid, not a long distance, but a partial supply.
"China's CNOOC's genes are good "
CNOOC started from external cooperation, and the management norms and people's concepts are very new.
I remember that in 2007, I went to the following discussion. The staff told me that we are "not guaranteed to rest on Saturday, and there is no guarantee for rest on Sunday", that is, their rest is not guaranteed, but no one has to pay for overtime. When I was working at Chaoyangmen, I first went at 9:00 in the evening and went to various offices. Many young people did not leave. Why? They said that because their work can't be pushed to tomorrow.
Now, CNOOC has encountered difficulties, but certainly there is no difficulty in the initial period. At that time, wages were paid for for 16 consecutive years. Foreigners are not willing to come, but we have to fight wells (at that time, a well of 4 million) Ah, how can I fight well without money? At that time, CNOOC was sold in all parts of the country.
I believe that CNOOC's genes are good and the foundation is good, and there will be a bright future.
“It’s good to make others goodâ€
The Belt and Road is not a day's business. It is a long-term business. It is difficult to get started. Where is it difficult? The risk is high. But the direction must be firm, and we must be firm in doing this, but we must be careful when doing specific things.
Many countries in the Belt and Road are developing countries. These countries are not sound in law, policies are imperfect and changeable. Many companies are not very clear about local laws, humanities and taxes. We must fully consider this risk.
In addition, we must integrate our own projects into each other's development strategy, and we must aim at solving each other's problems in the long run. We must truly understand each other's needs and meet their future needs.
For example, the partner country asked us to go to a coal-fired power plant at the time, but in a few years, the other party will raise the standard and it will be passive at that time. Therefore, how do we do it in China, how to do it in the other country, bring high standards out, and turn the second-rate equipment and technology out of the wrong way. We must make others good, and others can be good in the long run. .
(China Ocean Oil News Wang Lingzhu, Fu Rao exclusive interview, Fu Rao shooting)
When talking about excess refining capacity, Fu Chengyu said that excess refining capacity is even worse than steel. Last year, the national refining capacity reached 750 million tons, but the actual demand is only 500 million tons. In addition, it has been approved for construction. It is estimated that the refining capacity will reach 900 million tons by 2020. The reason why the refining is not included in the capacity-producing industry is mainly because the oil industry is still making money now, and it is not a loss in the whole industry. The pressure can be eased temporarily.
According to Caixin.com, in response to the reform of state-owned enterprises, Fu Chengyu said, "On the one hand, the above is very urgent and very hot. The Prime Minister personally supervised the deployment and continued to introduce policies and measures to support the real economy and the new economy. On the other hand, The grassroots are very urgent, but it is very cold - the grassroots policy has not landed, only the voice, no action." A large number of state-owned enterprises did not implement the reform reasons, he said "one is afraid of being robbed, the second is afraid of the loss of state-owned assets and the accounts after the fall, I am cautious." Fu Chengyu suggested that for enterprises that can be reformed, the government should clearly decentralize power, and enterprises should reform as soon as possible to prevent small problems from being dragged into big problems and prevent the annihilation war from becoming a protracted war.
In the economic group discussion, Fu Chengyu also criticized the "walking relationship" problem of Chinese enterprises going out. He said that the Chinese used small cleverness to take the relationship, and privately thought that they could solve everything. "I still like to talk about it, and I am proud of it."
Before entering Sinopec, Fu Chengyu was also the head of CNOOC, the developer of China's largest offshore oil and gas field. Since entering CNOOC in 1983 and taking over Sinopec in 2011, Fu Chengyu has participated in and promoted the reform and restructuring of CNOOC and overseas listings, and has gradually grown into a leading energy giant in westernization and management, and is unique among central enterprises.
During the two sessions, CNOOC's WeChat public account, CNO Sixianghui (cnoocdaily) interviewed the old leader Fu Chengyu. During the conversation, Fu Chengyu talked about the future trend of international oil prices, saying that “this year’s average oil price can reach 40 US dollars/barrel is goodâ€; sharing the views on energy transformation and transformation, “predicting the next 20 to 30 years Significant changes, the newly added energy demand must be new energyâ€; he also reminded that while fully considering the risks of the “Belt and Roadâ€, it is also necessary to “really understand the needs of the other party and meet their future needs.â€
“It’s good to have an average oil price of $40/barrel this yearâ€
At this stage, this oil price is not a problem of which oil company (survival), it is a problem of the whole industry. In the end, it depends on who can get to the end. Generally speaking, it is a big company in the end.
Global oil companies' annual spending has begun to decrease (10% to 14%), and if it has been reduced for three consecutive years (which is rare in history), it means that future oil production will inevitably decrease.
Having said that, it is expected that this year's oil price will remain at $30/barrel. It may be a bit low. The average annual price of $40/barrel is good. In the next few years, the price of oil will definitely increase, but it will be 50~60 USD/barrel. Not bad (because after this price, the US shale oil and gas company is easy to survive).
So in the short term, oil companies should not expect oil prices to return to 80 or even $100/barrel.
"The United States is no longer afraid of the Middle East chaos, and traditional oil producers are afraid."
Let's take a look at the 1998 (and most recently) drop in oil prices.
In 1998, the oil price fell by $10/barrel in the shortest time, which is lower than it is now. By 2003, the oil price slowly rose back to 23 US dollars, 25 US dollars, 30 US dollars. We felt very good until 2006 and 2007. The price of oil has risen to over $100/barrel.
However, the rise in oil prices from 1998 to 2006 and 2007 was a departure from the rise in supply and demand. At that time, oil prices were more financial, equivalent to stocks.
The previous round of oil price fluctuations that are out of supply and demand is unsustainable. This round of oil price decline is both an irrational return and an increase in actual supply capacity. The fundamental driving force is the greatly improved supply capacity, especially the increase in supply after the 2008 financial crisis. The main source is the US shale oil and gas. The major commercial breakthrough of US shale oil and gas is that after 2008, horizontal fracturing will make its oil and gas production In less than ten years, it has grown by hundreds of millions of tons, and its oil and gas production has increased substantially, making the United States not only grab the current market of traditional oil producing countries, but also grab the future market. Changes in supply have led to geopolitical changes, and the United States is no longer afraid of the Middle East chaos, and traditional oil-producing countries are afraid.
Observing whether the supply of shale oil and gas in the United States has decreased, it depends on whether the number of rigs is small. This indicator really determines how much it produces. Looking at it now, the number of rigs is currently limited, and in the next six months, the number of shale oil and gas rigs in the United States will decrease.
“The new energy demand must be new energyâ€
Predicting the major changes in the next 20 to 30 years, not only oil is energy, oil will eventually become regional, local, and the total supply will not increase significantly. The demand for new energy in the future must be new. energy.
The new energy layout should look at the future systematically. I believe that China's future is to build an energy network. This is also a national strategy and requires enterprises, especially state-owned enterprises and central enterprises, to practice.
So what is the energy network? Our current hot gas and hydropower are all part of the energy network. We are now a separate supply, causing energy waste. If we can concentrate supply, energy efficiency will be greatly improved. Distributed energy is a good way to supply a large grid, not a long distance, but a partial supply.
"China's CNOOC's genes are good "
CNOOC started from external cooperation, and the management norms and people's concepts are very new.
I remember that in 2007, I went to the following discussion. The staff told me that we are "not guaranteed to rest on Saturday, and there is no guarantee for rest on Sunday", that is, their rest is not guaranteed, but no one has to pay for overtime. When I was working at Chaoyangmen, I first went at 9:00 in the evening and went to various offices. Many young people did not leave. Why? They said that because their work can't be pushed to tomorrow.
Now, CNOOC has encountered difficulties, but certainly there is no difficulty in the initial period. At that time, wages were paid for for 16 consecutive years. Foreigners are not willing to come, but we have to fight wells (at that time, a well of 4 million) Ah, how can I fight well without money? At that time, CNOOC was sold in all parts of the country.
I believe that CNOOC's genes are good and the foundation is good, and there will be a bright future.
“It’s good to make others goodâ€
The Belt and Road is not a day's business. It is a long-term business. It is difficult to get started. Where is it difficult? The risk is high. But the direction must be firm, and we must be firm in doing this, but we must be careful when doing specific things.
Many countries in the Belt and Road are developing countries. These countries are not sound in law, policies are imperfect and changeable. Many companies are not very clear about local laws, humanities and taxes. We must fully consider this risk.
In addition, we must integrate our own projects into each other's development strategy, and we must aim at solving each other's problems in the long run. We must truly understand each other's needs and meet their future needs.
For example, the partner country asked us to go to a coal-fired power plant at the time, but in a few years, the other party will raise the standard and it will be passive at that time. Therefore, how do we do it in China, how to do it in the other country, bring high standards out, and turn the second-rate equipment and technology out of the wrong way. We must make others good, and others can be good in the long run. .
(China Ocean Oil News Wang Lingzhu, Fu Rao exclusive interview, Fu Rao shooting)
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