Expert: If there is no special measure, the economy will be L-type for 20 years.

If a country lets the population explode and rapidly grow in the first half of the year, the population formed by the explosion will help the country to quickly complete industrialization and enter the developed post-industrial society in a phase 30 years later; If we start to strictly control the population growth rate, we may not have enough population reserves, and there will be serious economic main population shortage, declining birth and aging. When we are about to enter the post-industrial society in the later stage of industrialization, we will lose the boost of the young population. power.
The rapid growth of the population reserve in the early stage is the beginning of modernization in developing countries. The economy will grow from low to high in the next few decades, and finally promote its important explosive force into the industrialized society. The population enters the low fertility rate and the population strength shrinks. Emerging industrialization and established developed countries have entered an important stage of low-speed economic growth and even negative growth.

First, if there are no special measures: economic growth will have 20 years of L-type
I think that the May 9th, 2016 People's Daily interview with the authorities is very correct about the fact that economic growth may be a long-term L-type. If there are no special measures, the future growth rate of the national economy will be long-term sliding along the L-type for about 20 years. Whether it will be able to make a comeback in 2036 depends mainly on the growth and growth of the population after 2016.
China's current downturn: Due to the fierce contraction of the economically active population between the ages of 22 and 45, the consumption of homes and automobiles has suddenly shrunk. (Some people think that cars have a level of ownership in developed countries, and there is room for improvement. However, rural areas The population is large, and the urban population is more aging. The two groups have lower desires and abilities for cars.), the industry is over-represented, industrialization is basically over, and the service industry comes early, urbanization Engineering, many domestic industries have the pressure to be squeezed out of foreign countries in advance. The economic growth rate of 8% or more is 10 to 15 years shorter than that of Korea and Taiwan. When it fell from 8%, the GDP per capita was only three of that year when Hantai fell from 8%. One to one half. Now that the industry is not mature, it has been squeezed out and is not ready in terms of corporate systems, commercial brand channels, and product performance. It may happen that state-owned enterprises have lost assets and lost their operations, and private enterprises may not go back when they go out, and they are gone.
We returned to the relationship between the population growth rate from 1974 to 1994 and the economic growth rate after 20 years, from 1994 to 2014, and obtained the following correlation: ry= -1.293 +0.749×pop; where R2= 0.6017, pop p value = 0.000, significant; population growth rate pop is 1974-1994, nominal GDP growth rate ry is 1994-2014.
That is to say, the population growth rate of China from 1974 to 1994 is highly correlated with the population growth rate from 1994 to 2014 after 20 years. Explain this lagging relationship from an economic point of view: as the population enters the working age around 20 years old, it will expand or contract the scale of the national economic labor input; rent housing to buy houses, expand or reduce the demand for housing, leading to the expansion of real estate and related industries And contraction; to marry and have children, it will expand or reduce the demand for daily life, durable consumer goods, including consumer goods such as family cars. Therefore, the population around 20 years old has begun to become the main force for promoting economic growth. The increase and decrease of this part of the population has a major impact on the factors of consumption and investment demand and industrial scale that determine the upward and downward economic growth. From the trend of decreasing populations from 0 to 14 years old, the average annual reduction of 8.81 million between 2000 and 2010. Among them, the impact on education and population consumption at all stages is that the population decline in 2004-2010 is mainly due to the size of primary school students; the population decline from 2000 to 2003, the number of students in junior high and high school is decreasing; starting from 2017, The number of college students enrolled will begin to decrease more and more.
Until 2035, the absolute number of students at all levels of school can be reduced. The economic implication is that difficulties in entering kindergartens will be greatly alleviated; in the near-term, the education and other consumption of the middle-aged middle-aged population will shrink sharply; the education and other consumption of the high-aged population will enter a period of shrinkage; and during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, the university The education and consumption of the age population began to shrink, and it will become more and more serious during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" in the future. It will be stabilized by the "16th Five-Year Plan". If domestic residents send more and more children to study abroad, Chinese university education and the consumption of this part of the population will quickly fall into depression.
In 1994, the population fertility rate was 1.76, a growth rate of 11.3‰, which fell to 10.86‰ in 1995, and by 2014 the population fertility rate fell to 1.26 (estimated by the author), and the population growth rate fell to 4.79‰. Between 1995 and 2014, it was also a steep decline in population growth rate. From 1997 to 2002, the curve between 2005 and 2010 was steeper. Deriving this population growth and future economic growth: The relationship between population growth rate and economic growth rate in 2015-2034 is: ry=-1.035+0.738*pop; R2=0.691, pop p value=0.000, significant. This projection is actually a forecast of downward pressure on economic growth after 2014, a downward shift in population in the first 20 years, assuming no other factors affect economic growth in the future.
An important area to be proposed here is the economically dominant population, which refers to the population between the ages of 20 and 45. This part of the population is the most capable population resources and human capital in terms of employment, entrepreneurship innovation, investment and consumption. The increase or decrease of this part of the population means the increase or decrease of labor supply, housing, durable consumer goods, automobiles, luxury goods purchase and consumption, venture capital, invention patents and technology industrialization.
Therefore, they are the main force of a country's economic activity and prosperity. The population of more than 200 million people whose population is reduced in China is mainly from 1 to 45 years old, and the main economic population is more than 100 million. The excessive contraction of China's more than 100 million economically active populations is an important underlying cause of the current overcapacity of steel, non-ferrous metallurgy, coal, cement and various other manufacturing industries. The population of 1 to 19 years of age is further reduced, which means that the population that has become the main force of the economy in the future is also shrinking. A causal logic is that China's economic growth in the future will still face the pressure of a larger economic main population shrinking.
According to the regression analysis of the impact of population growth changes on economic growth after 20 years since the 1970s, the population growth rate is almost parallel with the economic growth rate after 20 years, resulting from the low birth rate of the population from 1995 to 2014. The population growth rate continues to decline and enters the low growth range, which will have a strong downward impact on the economic growth rate after 20 years. If there are no special reforms, technological advances and innovations, openness and going global strategies, such as openness, institutional and policy measures, and other factors, the economic growth rate will fall from around 7% to around 3% between 2016 and 2020; During the period of 2021-2030, the economic growth rate was reduced from about 3% to about 1%; and in 2030-2035, the economic growth rate may be around 1.3%. China's national economy will enter a stage of long-term downturn in the national economy like Japan. The difference is that Japan is the richest and the oldest, while China is the oldest and the old ones, and the risk and difficulty of achieving wealthy first and then can be achieved. Second, how to reverse the L-type economic growth to the S-type?
Economic growth has risen from the L-type, which is quite difficult. However, I first think that it is possible to turn it up. The key is how to do it. Wrong, not doing enough, not doing it thoroughly, there is no doubt that the national economy will slide to the L-shape in the future.
Letting its economy slide to L-type for a long time, we can't achieve the grand goal of two centuries of economic and social development with solemn commitment, and it will bring serious social and economic problems such as increased financial risks, rising unemployment rate, and long-term stagnation of people's living standards. . Therefore, the road map for national economic growth needs to be strategically laid out.
From the above-mentioned pattern of population-induced economic growth, general macro-control, general reform, general innovation, and general openness have been useless for reversing the long-term decline in economic growth. It requires a large pattern, clear thinking, and large Philip, especially the big move, can return to heaven and force, turn things around. Here are some ideas and ways to make up for growth. For everyone to discuss, throwing bricks and jade, and reaching consensus on some important aspects, in order to form a better plan, and to pull forward the future economic growth can pull out the trend.
We assume that the current economic growth rate is oX0 and may continue to decline. In order not to let it fall, what should be done, what new growth points and measures can stabilize, compensate and replace the economic growth rate?
The most powerful short-term policy on the supply side: to effectively and truly reduce taxes and fees on the real economy, especially the VAT rate is reduced to 15%, and the social security rate is lowered to 30%; breaking the bank's only government, state-owned, and highly monopolized situations , blocking fund financing fraud, private high-profit lending, underground money and black roads, and letting private banks clear the way, fundamentally in accordance with the principle of information symmetry, acquaintance society, short decision-making chain, low fixed cost, alleviate and reduce small and medium-sized The financing difficulties and costs of enterprises, especially the real economy. This will stabilize the growth rate of aX1. Of course, in the actual macro-control, the policy tools of the supply school, the Keynesian school, and the monetarist school depend on the actual economic operation, camera decision-making, and use.

Supply side structure adjustment 1 - technological innovation:
Practically reform education, cultivate innovative talents; develop vocational education, train skilled workers; attract overseas talents to return to China, network global talents, go to the world to find technology, find projects; crack down on knowledge and technology piracy, strong incentives Encourage innovation; implement technological advancement and catch-up strategies, promote disruptive technologies and industrialization; form a sound service system such as science and technology finance, and enhance the ability of innovative productization, marketization and industrialization. The growth rate can rise by bX2.
Supply side structure adjustment 2 - industrial structure transformation:
Actively carry out strategic contraction and withdrawal in some industrial fields, no longer give loans to these enterprises and other financial resources; upgrade, digital and manufacturing in some industrial areas, ensure and seriously promote China's industrial 2025 strategy; The new manufacturing sector has to enter and expand. Positive and negative subtraction brings the growth rate of cX3.
Supply side structure adjustment 3 - release new domestic economic growth space as soon as possible :
Look for new areas of economic growth, liberalize low-level general aviation development, and bring economic activities such as low-altitude aircraft manufacturing, aviation fuel, general aviation tourism, low-altitude cargo and transportation, airport construction and operations, and employment of pilots and other service personnel. According to the literature, only the general aviation industry contributes to the US economy, accounting for 0.8% of its gross national product. In combination with the constant use reform of land use indefinitely, we encourage the private sector to invest in the transformation of unused land such as saline-alkali land. Whoever invests in the transformation and who owns it; the forest land is also indefinitely used for reform, and afforestation and forest protection in accordance with national standards, allowing it to develop under the forest Economic, eco-tourism, suitable for the construction of some residential and small business facilities.
In fact, this can fundamentally solve the annual financial investment of the state, renovate the unused land every year, afforestation every year, waste a lot every year, the effect is very poor, the greening rate is actually lower than the statistics, and can be balanced The country’s financial resources are insufficient, and the phenomenon of changing state investment by intermediate links is prevented. Why not do it?
The development of the marine economy, islands, etc., can also be transferred to investors indefinitely, developed and utilized under the relevant national standards; development of marine tourism, marine biomedicine, marine infrastructure construction, equipment manufacturing, sustainable development of marine resources; Private investment in seawater desalination and comprehensive utilization, technological progress and continuous cost reduction to replace the huge investment and costly countries of the South-to-North Water Transfer, etc., to alleviate and meet the freshwater needs of China's economic development in the 21st century; reduce the cost of various renewable energy sources in the islands Use step-by-step energy and ecosystems.
We will change the business model, use business models, use new technologies, reduce operating costs, increase comprehensive and in-depth use, reduce financial burdens, increase household expenditures, and have economic benefits. These new areas of economic growth, as long as the reform is liberalized, property rights must be clear and protected, the government encourages, does not set obstacles, let the people go to the innovation model, invest in entrepreneurship, can bring the growth rate of dX4.

Supply side reform 1 - Stabilizing and retaining entrepreneurs and investment and industry:
As long as the country is open, talents, entrepreneurs, technology, capital, industry, etc. will flow around the world, where property rights can be best protected. After decades, their property will not be nationalized and not returned to zero. The safest, where you can make a profit, it flows and transfers there. If these elements of a country flow, transfer, and never return to other countries, how can it not seriously drag down the country’s economic growth?
Therefore, it must be made clear that the judgment of the primary stage of socialism has not changed. The basic economic system in the primary stage should be adhered to, unswervingly support the development of individual and private economy, protect private materials and intellectual property rights, and further strengthen investment and entrepreneurship in order to achieve permanent production. The understanding of Hengxin Avenue does not turn over the old account of private entrepreneurs; personal violation does not mean that the enterprise is illegal, and it is not possible to seal up and shut down the enterprise in violation of the law; to deal with the law reform and the law is too slow and the reform needs to break through the old law; In accordance with the negative list management method, some administrative systems of administrative and administrative purposes were reformed, and the market decided to decentralize power.
Adhere to the state-owned and collective ownership of land, abolish the limited annual system of real estate such as cultivated land, forest land, homesteads, houses, etc., and clarify the infinite permanent use of property rights for farmer's and urban residents' homesteads, forest land, cultivated land, and real estate, and real estate shall be issued as soon as possible, and It can have all the attributes of market economy trading, leasing, mortgage, shareholding, inheritance, etc., abolish the construction land must be requisitioned by the collective land as state-owned land, the same price in the same place, directly into the market. To make investment and entrepreneurship, Hengchang has perseverance, retaining immigrants who have rushed abroad in recent years, retaining a large amount of funds flowing out of foreign countries, and retaining as many industries as possible to transfer abroad. Retain, recover and bring the growth rate of eX5.
Supply side reform 2 - Revitalize the interaction and circulation of population, land, investment and other elements between urban and rural areas:
We have regulated the household registration of urban and rural residents for more than 60 years. There are no funds for education for children from rural populations in cities and towns. The more liberal and legal work system is also clear in the 1990s. If the housing prices are too high, it is impossible for migrants to go out to work. The affordable housing, social security is not connected and the participation rate is low. The farmer's cultivated land, woodland, homestead, etc. cannot be clearly defined and used by the property, and cannot obtain property income. The house can be afforded in the city and can be built. . Cities and industries have accumulated funds and income in the spread of farmers' land, and they have developed rapidly.
However, one consequence is: from the international comparison, we are promoting urbanization without citizenization. After a large number of young farmers enter the city, they return to the countryside after the old age; quite a few 80s and 90s may not Going back to the countryside, but drifting in the city. The end result is that even if these people are old, they will not stay in the city to form the final population with the ability to consume, and eventually return to the countryside to form a huge consumption collapse; how many years have been promoted, and no city and industry have been promoted to feed the countryside and agriculture. The pattern, the government pays, and the population is huge, and the heart is not enough. In the rural areas, there are assets such as cultivated land, forest land, and homestead, which have become a huge resource with a very low utilization rate. Some economists estimate that the economic growth rate of this loss is between 1% and 2% per year.
Therefore, it is necessary to carry out the reform of disk activity, completely liberalize the household registration, and eliminate all urban and rural household registration discrimination; the central and local governments will balance the education funds of the peasant children in the city; abolish the construction land acquisition system, cancel the administrative land monopoly bidding, and collectively The land directly enters the construction market, the same price in the same place, and the property tax is levied to reduce the housing price; the school and the local government must unconditionally accept the migrant children to receive education at the workplace, liberalize the entry of social funds, and allow private kindergartens and primary schools to provide education; Reduce the social insurance rate, solve the problem of seamless migration of migrant workers and migrant workers; rural land is reformed as before, and will not be repeated here. In order to revitalize the flow, interaction and virtuous circle of various elements of urban and rural areas. This system reform will bring the growth rate of fX6.
Supply Side Reform 3 - Revitalizing talent and technical resources within the system:
After the Second World War, the academic research results of the United States and the commercial development were generally severely separated, and the technology transfer mechanism was rigid, resulting in a low conversion rate of less than 5%. Around 1980, at the time, because of the shrinking federal funding and the economic downturn, many companies were reluctant to invest in research and development, and the federal laboratories and the federally funded universities have a large number of research results due to the US federal government. The failure to adopt a uniform patent policy has resulted in manufacturers failing to effectively obtain the required technology authorization, resulting in many commercialization results not being commoditized.
At that time, the United States and the Soviet Union carried out economic and military competitions and wanted to get out of the stagflation of economic growth. On December 12, 1980, the United States passed the Bayh-Dole Act. The technical patents of the statutory universities must be open to the society, and the universities and non-profit research institutions should be given. Patent application rights and patent rights for federally funded inventions and creations, encourage universities to conduct academic research and actively transfer patent technology, promote the development of small businesses, and promote industrial innovation. In the same period, the United States also applied military technology to the people, including the industrialization of disruptive technologies such as information highways, and other real major measures, which made the United States out of the quagmire of economic stagflation.
China has a lot of technology to sleep in colleges and universities, research institutes, state-owned enterprise R&D centers, military research and development departments, etc. There are also many talents for R&D in the system, and R&D equipment and platforms are also concentrated in these systems. Therefore, there is a need for very large reform initiatives and efforts to bring them to life. Activate these talent, technology and project resources to contribute to economic growth. This will bring the growth rate of gX7.
Supply side reform 4 - Revitalizing resources within state-owned enterprises:
The efficiency of state-owned enterprises is framed, and low efficiency does exist. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Finance, at the end of 2015, the total assets of state-owned enterprises were 119,204.88 billion yuan, the total liabilities were 790.67 billion yuan, and the total owner's equity was 40,137.82 billion yuan. The total profit for the year was 2,302.75 billion yuan. State-owned enterprises have intra-institutional benefits in terms of loan interest. The average interest rate on loans from private companies is between 11.5% and 12.5%, while that for state-owned enterprises is between 5.5% and 6.5%. If the state-owned enterprise loan interest rate is equal to that of the private enterprise, then all state-owned enterprises will not only have no profit, but also have a loss of 244.3 billion.
State-owned enterprises also have intra-institutional concessions in terms of land. A considerable amount of land is freely allocated assets. A considerable amount of land is obtained from low-cost concessions. Private industrial and commercial enterprises and other service enterprises either obtain from auctions or rent land at high prices. Land and land and service costs are also high. If state-owned enterprises pay the same land and rent costs as the private sector, it is estimated that there will be a loss of 20,000 to 3 trillion. In fact, the state-owned economy only has a potential loss of 4.5 trillion to 5.5 trillion yuan in terms of the inefficiency of loans and land resource utilization.
Moreover, in the state-owned business system, there are also many idle resources. Such as land, training centers, nursing homes, over-standard office buildings, etc., do not bring economic growth, but consume financial resources and other resources.
For this, it is necessary to reform the state-owned enterprises and institutions in different ways to revitalize the assets and resources of state-owned enterprises. Get the growth rate of hX8.
Supply side reform 5 - Reform and liberalization of the domestic service industry system and areas:
Due to the early termination of industrialization in China, the industrialization of the national economy has also arrived in advance. In the normal structural transformation, when industrialization ends, the proportion of goods import and export trade to GDP will decline, and the proportion of service trade to GDP will increase. Here is a balance of import and export of services, especially if you want export to drive economic growth, the import value of service trade is less than the export value.
Otherwise, it will seriously affect the speed of future economic growth. When I proposed in the beginning of 2015 that the proportion of the added value of the tertiary industry is getting higher and higher, the expansion of the trade deficit in services has made the economic downturn in the past two years worse. From the situation in 2015, compared with 2014, there are more people traveling abroad and shopping abroad, forming a trade deficit between tourism and the actual goods; more students go abroad to study, and even extend to the younger age. In addition to studying abroad spending, and some parents are still studying to buy a house to invest in housing; a new trend is that many Chinese high-income people go abroad to see a doctor, and the trade deficit in the purchase of housing, health care and pensions will also There is a growing trend. The resulting trade deficit in services is between $300 and $400 billion.
How can such a huge deficit not drag China's economic growth rate? ! Moreover, our engineering design, technology services, arbitration consulting, and the export of soft products such as books, movies, animations and other cultural entertainments are almost uncompetitive in the international market. Compared with the development of domestic manufacturing industry, China has a major strategic mistake when it joined the WTO, that is, there was no service industry at that time.
Therefore, China's institutional reform and opening up a critical area should be in the service industry system and field. It is necessary to deepen the reform and opening up of the access and system of tourism, medical care, education, health, pension, culture and other industries, and to retain the mass tourism, middle and higher education, high-end medical care, high-end health and Retirement and other consumption, to attract foreign tourists, expand overseas commercial students to China to carry out education and consumption, and promote the development of the service industry. This will bring the growth rate of iX9.
Supply side reform 6 - liberalize independent fertility, gradually inject and enhance the vitality of economic growth:
From the seriousness of China's future population situation and the contraction pressure of economic growth brought about by it, it is necessary to implement strategies and policy measures to restore population growth and improve population structure in the near and medium term. The population fertility rate will gradually return to the replacement rate of 2.1, and the proportion of the population aged 0-14 will gradually reach 20%; the cancellation of the population must be approved by the administrative authority and the licensing system, reform for family decision-making, independent birth;
Strictly implement a series of laws and regulations on maternity leave for women; introduce a personal income tax reduction policy that encourages childbirth; compulsory education first extends to the early childhood education to reduce the burden of childbirth costs; immediately suspend the regulations on the collection of social support fees, which is conducive to promoting the migrant workers population Urbanization of localization and localization of citizens; speeding up the revision of a series of related laws, such as the Marriage Law and the Adoption Law, treating pre-marital births equally, relaxing adoption restrictions; and immigrating a portion of the population from outside. These measures can stimulate consumption and form a consumption multiplier, which will bring about the growth rate of jX10; and from low to strong, a new wave of high growth in China's economy in 2036 is the key to achieving the next hundred-year goal.
Higher level of foreign economic opening: the combination of the construction of the Belt and Road facilities and the transfer of production capacity; government guidance, enterprise-led, international market operation; reform of the outbound system, the formation of modern multinational corporations and other open system mechanisms; vertical and horizontal and domestic industries Forming a chain and division of labor to promote the development of domestic industry; balancing the relationship between political interests and economic interests of external projects, in general, it is necessary to use the assets of Chinese investors to go global, prevent risks, maintain value and increase profits, and return profits and national income. Domestic economic growth and the positive interaction of expanding opening up. Reduce losses and ensure the growth rate of kX11.
Finally, form such a situation:
Maintain economic growth rate Y=(oX0 +aX1+bX2+ cX3+ dX4+eX5+fX6+gX7+ hX8+iX9+ jX10+kX11 ) = long-term medium-high speed range of about 6.5% to 5.5% (of course, there are crossovers and repetitions here) In part, when we study it carefully, we can consider removing it and also reach the speed range on the right side of the equal sign. The measure is strong and may exceed this growth rate range.
The key is the tangible policy; strategic structural adjustment, especially catching up and subversive innovation; eliminating all kinds of interference and obstacles, and vigorously reforming, especially the reform of key parts such as constant production and perseverance; And a higher level of economic openness with the return of national income.
I believe that the most important tasks of the party and the country now are to curb the downturn, stabilize growth, cross the trap of middle-income population, successfully complete the two hundred-year goals and tasks, and realize the great dream of the Chinese nation's rejuvenation. (The author of this article: Zhou Tianyong, deputy director and researcher of the Institute of International Strategy of the Central Party School of the Communist Party of China.)

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