Under the catalysis of a series of problems such as weak innovation ability, low core technology, low product quality and excessive dependence on the international market, the development of China's photovoltaic industry is destined to experience a cold winter. This year, due to the sharp drop in demand in the European PV market, a large number of domestic products are slow-moving, prices have fallen sharply, and losses in the industry have been severe. At this time, the United States has launched a "double-reverse" investigation on China's solar cells, which undoubtedly put the Chinese PV industry into a more passive and unfavorable situation. However, the deterioration of the external environment is not necessarily a bad thing for Chinese companies. It can only make Chinese PV companies more active in coping with the crisis. At the same time, they actively promote industry integration, accelerate the development of core technologies, and enhance international competitiveness. The European debt crisis and the US “double-reverse†investigation led to the shrinking of the European market and the possible high tariffs in the future. They are like two hurricanes twisted together, and the Chinese PV industry, which is highly dependent on exports, is involved in the abyss. As the “winter into the winter†becomes a reality, the PV industry is becoming more and more difficult, so where is its hope? Some experts pointed out that emerging markets will become the second battlefield of China's PV industry in the future, which is crucial for reversing the unfavorable situation of “Waterlooâ€. Internal and external difficulties were affected by the debt crisis in Europe and the United States. Foreign orders have shrunk dramatically, and PV module prices have fallen by more than 50%. Shi Zheng, director of the market of Zhejiang Zhengtai New Energy Development Co., Ltd., told reporters that countries such as Germany and Italy have reduced or even subsidized local companies that use new energy because of the government's spending cuts, which has led to a sharp drop in market demand in these countries. The situation of Chinese PV companies that rely on the European market to absorb more than 80% of their production capacity will become increasingly difficult. At the same time, the US's "double-reverse" investigation of China's PV products is pressing hard, and any tariff restrictions that may eventually be implemented will make Chinese PV companies worse. Insiders pointed out that in addition to external negative factors, the Chinese industry itself has many problems. Kong Fanjian, chief technical expert of Jiangsu Huilun Solar Technology Co., Ltd., said that the problem in the photovoltaic industry is that the speed of demand development does not match the speed of capacity development, and the problem of overcapacity is prominent. “In 2010, the capacity of China's PV industry increased by 200%, which greatly exceeded the digestibility of the global market.†He said that this is related to the practices of some local governments. “Some regions are quite optimistic about the PV industry and even regard it as GDP development. The pillar industry. High-speed development has caused overcapacity, and the profitability of some enterprises has been further squeezed.†“China's solar energy companies are still unable to get out of the traditional export-oriented enterprise “two-outside†industry model.†UNCTAD Investment and Zhan Xiaoning, Director of the Enterprise Department, said that the upstream raw materials and downstream application markets of the photovoltaic industry are heavily dependent on overseas markets. At present, the economic prospects in Europe and the United States are uncertain. Some countries have tightened their support policies for new energy sources. In recent years, the rapid development of new energy industries will enter a more difficult adjustment period. Kong Fanjian predicts that 30% of PV companies will close down this year, mainly for small enterprises. Their brand, technology, capital and market credibility are not as good as those of large enterprises, which will be difficult to sustain in the market's intense panning. According to the "Economic Daily" report, due to the weakness of the photovoltaic market, many companies' share prices have fallen by more than 70% from a year ago. In the past few months, more than 50 companies in China's PV industry, which account for more than 60% of the global production capacity, have fallen. Under the violent price fluctuations, the entire industry chain was in a downturn. The cold winds in the emerging markets and the European and American markets are indeed making the Chinese PV industry feel the cold. However, some insiders pointed out that PV companies must have a long-term vision to develop a long-term future. They must develop long-term emerging markets such as South America, India, South Africa, the Middle East and Russia. “The market potential of developing countries and emerging economies is very large.†Zhan Xiaoning also agrees that developing countries have low requirements for new energy stability and energy storage, and do not necessarily need to be connected to the grid. Strong. Chinese companies can develop low-end products in a targeted manner, while using financial means such as credit to open up new energy markets in developing countries and emerging economies. In fact, many Chinese companies have already extended their reach to emerging markets and seek partial articles. India is a typical example. It is reported that the Indian subsidiary of CLP Group will become the country's largest wind power developer in 2012. In addition, Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd., Poly GCL Energy Holdings Co., Ltd., and Dongfang Electric Group have also stepped into the new energy industry in India. According to the reporter's understanding, as the domestic market in India continues to grow and the demand for photovoltaic capacity continues to expand, the Indian government has implemented a number of incentives to encourage the import of power generation equipment. The price of Chinese supplier equipment is 10% to 15% lower than that offered by India and overseas. In addition, these companies choose to borrow in RMB and can occupy a large share of the Indian market in a short period of time. Song Liang, an analyst at the China Merchants Productivity Promotion Center, pointed out that India, Brazil, Russia and other countries are actively promoting the photovoltaic industry. The prospects for new energy in South American countries, especially Brazil, are optimistic. As Brazil is vigorously developing new energy sources, its government encourages the entry of foreign capital and technology, and the market is open. China is the biggest market “China is the biggest emerging market.†Shi Yi bluntly said. Although the potential of developing countries has been recognized by many companies, some companies believe that these markets are risky and require high levels of strength, while China's domestic market has a vast space to explore. Chint and Yingli said that this year's business focus is biased towards the domestic market, and the installed capacity will increase sharply due to the “Golden Sun†plan and the national unified on-grid tariff policy. The 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) issued by the National Development and Reform Commission shows that China's solar installation target by 2015 is 10GW, which is equivalent to 10 times the current German market capacity, which will enable China to enter the ranks of the international solar market super league. . Song Liang further predicted that “the domestic market will show an accelerated trend from 2020 to 2030.†As the price of coal-fired power increases and the price of photovoltaics decreases, the two are close to the same level, and “light into the coal retreat†can reach the best point of convergence. Moreover, with the maturity of the entire industry chain in 2020, including technological advances and infrastructure, smart grid and other hardware, photovoltaic power generation will have much to offer. "The development prospects are still bright in the long run. The key is to avoid blindly expanding production capacity and withstanding the cycle of economic crisis in Western countries." Kong Fanjian is full of confidence.
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